Good post from FT Beyond BRICS on the Pacific Alliance

Guest post: the Pacific Alliance and why it matters

High quality global journalism requires investment. FT has asked this article be accessed from their website.  Click here to read the complete article

By Jorge Rosenblut of Endesa Chile

In January I had the honor to attend a summit of the European Union and the Community of Latin-American and Caribbean Nations in Santiago, Chile. As with many such meetings, the 45 heads of state and prime ministers captured the attention of the international media. But what went almost unnoticed was a seismic shift in Latin American integration — a group of four countries that stood together in what promises to be a historic breakthrough for the region.

After meandering for centuries looking for a raison d’être, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru are forging a 21st century path to the first world. Though these four nations are competitors in many aspects (in exports, foreign investment, talent mobility, etc), their plan for economic integration under the Pacific Alliance heralds a new kind of economic partnership in Latin America: pragmatic not political, forward-looking not historical.

Click here to read the complete article direct from the Financial Times

Economic & trading blocs in focus

Headlines galore, with a great deal of political drama hidden behind the scenes.   Below CSA presents a few excerpts from recent news on the ever continuing development of economic and trading blocs between the East and West.

EU, Singapore agree free-trade deal

[Source] : The European Voice

By Andrew Gardner – 16.12.2012 / 16:05 CET

The agreement is the EU’s first with an Asean country and its second in Asia.

The European Union and Singapore today (16 December) announced that they have reached agreement on a free-trade deal, 33 months after they began formal negotiations.

This is the second free-trade agreement struck by the EU in Asia; the first – with South Korea – came into force in July 2011.

The EU began negotiations with Singapore in March 2010 after its hopes of lowering barriers with the ten-country Association of South-East Nations (Asean) were dashed in 2009, and Karel De Gucht, the European trade commissioner, said today he hoped the deal would “open the doors for FTAs [free-trade agreements] with other countries in the Asean region”.

Click here to read the complete article

[Img] : Courtesy of Wiki Commons, Leaders of the TPP

Vietnam sees value in TPP

[Source] : Published: 17/12/2012 at 09:47 AM – Newspaper section: Asia focus

Two competing regional trade plans, while sharing the aims of liberalising trade and improving economic integration, are making many Asean countries nervous at the same time.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has the backing of the United States while the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is favoured by China.

Smaller countries might resent being put in a position where they feel they have to choose between the two. But Vietnam has confidently embraced the TPP, believing it could increase its exports while helping the country attract more foreign investment.

Click here to read the complete article

Trade power play

[Source] : Published: 17/12/2012 at 09:44 AM – Newspaper section: Asia focus

China’s attempt to convince Asean countries to support the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) reflects the country’s aim to become the real economic leader of Asia Pacific and keep the United States at bay, say experts.

While Beijing drums up support for the 16-country RCEP (Asean plus China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand), Washington is making its case for the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP).

Both countries went all-out at the Asean and East Asia Summit meetings last month in Phnom Penh, with newly re-elected President Barack Obama talking up the TPP with individual leaders. However, the RCEP now has some real momentum following its formal endorsement by the leaders of the 16 countries involved. They hope to start negotiations in 2013 and finish by 2015. A successful outcome would lead to the creation of the world’s largest regional trading bloc.

The TPP has been on the drawing board for a long time and has proved to be a tougher sell. It envisages a trading bloc covering all of the countries on the Pacific including those in North and South America. Singapore, Chile and New Zealand were original signatories back in 2005, followed by Brunei, while the United States didn’t even enter the picture until 2008. Since then there have been several rounds of talks and six more countries — Australia, Peru, Vietnam, Malaysia, Mexico and Canada — have entered negotiations.

Click here to read the complete article

Expanding horizons (round 2): Perspectives on China’s Economy

Written in Chinese (Simplified) by Mr. Rafa Galan del Rio, a Spanish national who has been based in China for over 3.5 years. Apologies for those who don’t read Chinese characters, but there is a reason google.com/translate exists. If time and life permitted I would do my best to translate the message myself, but nonetheless this summer and falls theme of this blog is to expand beyond China – South America in English, to Asia – China America in new languages (primarily: Spanish, Portuguese, Chinese (Simplified and Traditional), Thai, and others). Contributors are more than welcome to drop me an email anytime.

Now I present Mr. Mr. Rafa Galan del Rio’s article, whom you can also follow on twitter via Perpe @_perpe_ and read his blog directly at http://www.perpe.es/

几年前开始，世界上所有经济学家都开始好奇的关注中国的经济变化。每个新公布的数据都极力论证中国的经济将在不久的将来面临“硬着陆”（Hard Landing）。然而，还是有部分经济学家不这么认为，或者至少不像其他分析家想象的那么糟。

虽然已在上海生活三年，但是仍然会为一些文化议题而感到惊讶，实际上这种情况每周都在发生。因此，我也极力保持乐观，甚至有时会想也许有什么惊喜让情况没有演变的更糟糕。

我们根本不用强调中国这个亚洲大国经济急剧放缓给其他国家产生的影响，以及对那些依靠其发展的产业所带来的巨大冲击。中国是世界第一出口大国，同时也是第二大进口国，近年来其对原材料需求增长速度惊人。可无论在何种情况下，我们也不能指望纯出口会对以后几年的国内生产总值产生巨大贡献。

国内需求消费会继续保持高位。政府可以采取相应措施，同时也有足够的能力这么做，以此来刺激跟多的住房需求。必须注意的是中国存款总额非常高。上海可能并不具有代表性，因为它的情况和国内其他地区有所不同，可是民众的消费能力，尤其是年轻人的消费能力相当惊人。

尽管政府部门进行限号，机动车号牌拍卖等手段来限制其保有量（现在一个机动车号牌大约需要6万人民币，约合7600欧元），但是机动车销售量仍然保持稳步增长。更需要强调的是，未来几年将有近亿人口进入中产阶级消费群。他们将会对更多产品和服务有更多需求，而这些人在现有收入水平他们明显是消费不起的。

另一方面，房地产泡沫破裂的恐慌虽然一直存在，但是，政府可以允许大部分农村人口迁徙至城市，但是利用户口制度同时控制这种迁徙。去年，中国的城镇人口首次超过农村人口。虽然一直有“鬼城”（空城）的传闻，笔者也亲眼见过渺无人烟的街区，但我并不认为这种房屋空置情况会持续很长时间。

在近三十年改革开放过程中，中国一直保持持续发展，而且动力强劲。年均增长率在10%左右。笔者与很多人的观点一致，就是未来几年的发展水平肯定不可能保持和从前一样。中国政府肯定不希望该情况发生，而且现在他们还有措施来避免这种情况。比如很多人期待的今年年底之前的经济刺激计划。

再过几个月，中国政府即将换届。习近平和李克强将分别担任中国国家主席和政府总理。胡和温到时候都将卸任。我们不能否认经济危机最终可能还是会到来，但可以肯定的是，即将上任的新领导班子可不想出师不利，因此新政府的经济刺激一揽子计划可能比许多分析师预计的都要来的强劲。

另一个需要考虑的问题是，对于大多数外国企业，进入中国市场和适应当地文化还是一个相当困难课题。因为他们任然面临对中国的经营策略及经济结构不了解所带来的挑战。事实上，笔者也遇到过一些这样例子，西班牙的跨国企业在中国经营几年后便不得不退出该市场。

但是，许多中国企业继续在世界其他区域进行扩张，同时也对当地的经济发展产生贡献，例如非洲就是一个例子。当然也有很多具有争议的项目，可是总体来说，这些企业完成了目标也有很好的收益。有些项目的收益方式是以支付原材料的方式体现的。很多这种企业都是国企，因此这些企业都有能力动用大量资源。一方面，这是很重要的收入来源；另一方面，也让这些企业有机会了解国外市场，同时也有利于世界的发展。

中国经济有其特殊性，如一开始提到的，某种方式上中国可能可以脱离大家都认为的巨大经济危机的恶运。否则，不幸的是很有可能：一些国家可能要品尝经济陷入衰退所带来的苦果。

James Baker III: China’s Rise No Threat

HOUSTON, March 24, 2011 — Former US Secretary of State James Baker III under President Ronald Reagan receives an award from the Asia Society and argues in his speech that American fear-mongering about China is “dangerously wrong” at Asia Society Texas Center’s 2011 Tiger Ball. (12 min., 24 sec.)

Also special thanks to http://wanderingchina.wordpress.com/ for first bringing this video to my attention.

9th China International Silver Conference (CISC), Oct 15-17

Silver - Wikicommons

The 9th China International Silver Conference (CISC) will be held this week ,October 15-17.  Major players from across the industry will be heading to Beijing to partake and climb the Fragrant Hills, a beautiful mountain landscape on the outskirts of Beijing which your author climbed back in the fall of 2006.

Here’s some background information on the event. and if this isn’t enough feel free to visit http://silver2010.antaike.com/ for additional info.

As countries around the world have taken a proactive fiscal policy and monetary stimulus, as a result of the global financial crisis, economies have started to show signs of moderate recovery. At the end of 2009, international commodity markets began to rebound; gold and silver were no exception. The world economy continues to suggest complexity and uncertainty and the European sovereign credit crisis is deepening. Many analysts suggest that the price of gold and silver will continue to rise.

In 2010, two principles of global economic recovery are industrial resurgence and the gradual withdraw of government stimulus policy. Governments, under the overall objective background of improving global industrial structure, encouraging economic development methodologies, and controlling inflation, are exploring the new international financial state of affairs. In this post-crisis era, it is also important to grasp potential new financial regulations. The 9th CISC will examine new trends in the global silver market, and discuss ways market participants can help further accelerate silver industrial restructuring and revitalization.

Accordingly, the 2010 China International Silver Conference, will be hosted by Gems & Jewelry Trade Association of China, and co-hosted by China General Chamber of Commerce, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China Chamber of Commerce of Metals Minerals & Chemicals Importers and Exporters, and the Silver Institute. The CISC is will be organized by Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd, and will be held in Beijing, at the Fragrant Hill Empark Hotel (five stars) on October 15th-17th, 2010.

9th China International Silver Conference (CISC) will invite important national ministries and leading global industry executives, as well as experts in China and abroad to discuss macroeconomics and the global financial situation, silver industry policy orientation, industry upgrades and technical progress. Additionally, Oct 16th is the Double Ninth Festival in the Chinese lunar calendar, which is an auspicious day worthy of celebration. The custom of ascending a height to avoid epidemics was passed down from long time ago. CISC organizers in particular are looking forward to a climbing tour to Fragrance Hill in
accordance with this event.

Conference Theme: Focus on Beijing, Explore in Development, Open up Interspace
Conference Date: Oct 15th-17th, 2010 Beijing, China
Conference Address: Fragrant Hill Empark Hotel (five stars), Beijing

Conference Scale: 300-400 attendees
Conference Attendee: Silver and precious metals producers, consumers, traders, stock and bond brokers, investors, researchers, media and etc
Conference Format: Reports, Discussion and Activities

Hosted by： Gems & Jewelry Trade Association of China
China General Chamber of Commerce
China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association
China Chamber of Commerce of Metals Minerals & Chemicals Importers and Exporters
The Silver Institute

Organized by：Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd.
Co-hosted by：Henan Jiyuan Jinli Smelting Co., Ltd.

China Doubles Korea Bond Holdings as Asia Switches From Dollar Reserves

Bloomberg Video:  Brookings’s Lieberthal Interview on China’s Economy

Kenneth Lieberthal, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, a Washington policy group, talks about the outlook for China’s economy and the mainland’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries. China cut its holdings of Treasury notes and bonds by the most ever, raising speculation the plunge in U.S. yields that sent two-year rates to a record low has made government securities too expensive for some investors. Lieberthal talks with Bloomberg’s Rishaad Salamat from Washington. (Source: Bloomberg)

Click here to watch the interview at Bloomberg.com

Playing The China Game – CNBC

Michael Kurtz, China strategist at Macquarie Securities, believes risk tolerance is back on the table in China. He tells CNBC‘s Bernard Lo that the biggest value in the mainland markets can be found in the cyclical stocks and banks.

China-ASEAN FTA – CCTV

China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement came into effect at the start of the new year.  CCTV9 reports:

Singapore-Latin Trade: Singapore and Panama in focus

Attention! / ¡Atención! / ???

Merlion - Singapore

For those of you out there who pay the whoppin’ $399 a year for a subscription to the Latin Business Chronicle, you can feast your eyes on some juicy reporting about Singapore’s growing trade with Latin America, particularly with Panama.

Here’s a brief synopsis from CSA of what was available for free from the Latin Business Chronicle:

Singapore’s trade with  Panama is a $6.6 billion usd, more than double Singapore’s entire trade with its second largest trading partner in Latin America, Brazil.

Considering that Singapore has signed Free Trade Agreements with the South American countries of Peru and Chile which have yet to help increase total exchange to a level even comparable with Panama’s.  It is clear to CSA, Singapore has found a healthy partner in Panama and it plans to nourish the relationship.

Panama is country of similar size (population wise), like Singapore it is strategically positioned in the middle a important global trade network, and it is increasingly open to economic cooperation with Asia.

Long term, CSA believes that Singapore is playing it smart in Latin America.  It is positioning itself to not only benefit directly from trade, but also from the growth of trade between other Asian and Latin American countries.

In other words, once Singapore has established a base of operations in Panama, it will probably expand into the business of providing services for other countries and companies within the Asia – Latin America trade network.

Below are a few excerpts from the Latin Business Chronicle article you can access directly via this link.

Soon, Singapore will also be known locally for its port services. PSA International, the world’s second-largest container terminal operator, will be competing with Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa, the world’s largest operator for container traffic that goes through Panama.

PSA is building a terminal at the Pacific entrance of the Panama Canal, right across from the Port of Balboa, which is operated by Hutchison unit Panama Ports Company. It expects to open the terminal, located at what once was a US Naval station, next year.

The current and future business generated by ST Aerospace and PSA is helping cement Panama as Singapore’s top trading partner in Latin America. Singapore’s trade with Panama is twice as large as its second-largest trade partner in Latin America, Brazil.

Last year, Singapore’s total trade with Panama grew by 59.6 percent to 9.2 billion Singapore dollars (US$6.6 billion), according to a Latin Business Chronicle analysis of IE Singapore data. While Singapore exports still dominate the …

Little Demand for China Output

Airtime: Sun. Nov. 1 2009 | 6:31 PM ET – CNBC

Despite strong manufacturing data out of China, Jim Walker, founder and CEO of Asianomics, says there is little demand for the output produced. He gives his take on the Chinese economy, with CNBC’s Martin Soong & guest host Mark Kiesel of PIMCO.