Del canal Argentino – Infinito

Every day Luis Castilla, Peru’s finance minister, says he lights a candle and “prays that China won’t crash”.

His prayers are echoed by many in a region that remains one of the world economy’s few bright spots. South America’s commodity-rich economies grew 5 per cent in the first half of this year. Last year, these new motors of the world economy added half a percentage point to global output.

But slowing Asian demand and plunging commodity prices have raised the spectre that South America, having largely escaped the 2008-09 Great Recession, may not be so lucky this time around.

Main point = Potential new financial crisis in the “Developed World” + slow down in China = Scared Latinos

Click here to read the full article direct from the Financial Times

The Western media continually criticizes China’s role in Latin America as being “neocolonial” and claims it has an “insatiable demand for commodities”, so I was keen to observe the people’s attitude toward China during my trip to the region recently.

Judging from the enthusiasm for China displayed by government officials, businessmen, academics and ordinary people in Chile, the picture presented by the Western media has been seriously distorted.

At the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, chiefs and experts attributed the fast trade and investment growth from China as a key factor for Latin America not only surviving, but thriving during the global financial crisis.

The same message was heard from top Chilean officials at the 5th annual meeting of the Chile China Business Council, which drew some 500 government officials and business people.

It is true that commodities are an important part of the trade between China and Latin America. However, that trade benefits not only China, but also Latin America and the rest of the world.

By being the world’s manufacturing workshop, China has paid a high environmental cost. Just half a century ago, that job was done in most of today’s developed countries when they were the global manufacturing center.

Many developed countries have an insatiable demand for China’s rare earth and, of course, the country’s cheap labor. But this never seems to bother the Western media.

In fact, China and Latin America are quickly diversifying and elevating their trade and investment as witnessed by the host of agreements signed by China and Cuba, Uruguay and Chile in the past few days.

China has already become Chile’s largest trade partner. Chinese businesses are increasing their presence in the South America country. The billboards on Santiago streets by automaker BYD and appliance firm Haier, and the Chinese businessmen who do trade, operate malls and run convenience stores are proof of China’s presence.

Both countries share a priority in development. Chile aspires to become a developed country and China wants to become a xiaokang (well-off ) society.

Chilean President Sabastian Pinera made constant reminders that the two countries are very close despite the geographical distance between them.

The mood among the ordinary people I met in Chile was also favorable to China. I have never heard the word “Welcome” as often as I did in Chile. Ordinary Chileans I met in cafes, museums, parks in Santiago and Pablo Neruda’s colorful and hilly neighborhood in historic Valparaiso greeted me with “Welcome to Chile”.

What Pinera said was true. China and Chile are very close. In South America, Chile was the first country to recognize China’s market economy status, the first to sign a free trade agreement with China, the first to establish diplomatic ties with China and the first to support China’s WTO accession.

Of course, China and Latin American countries, all belong to the developing world and are going to compete with each other. But we all know that competition is a good thing and there is no need to distort the picture simply because of competition.

Latin American nations are independent countries and they are no one’s backyard. For China and Chile, they are really neighbor countries separated only by the Pacific. You can literally fly from Beijing to Santiago without passing over any other country.

Presidents Dilma Rousseff and Hu Jintao in China last month can celebrate rising two-way trade. (Photo: Roberto Stuckert Filho/PR)

China’s trade with Latin America is growing twice as fast as U.S. trade with the region.

BY RUTH MORRIS of the The Latin American Business Chronicle

SHANGHAI — China’s dragon breathed fire into Latin America in 2010, as trade between the two sides shot up by a spectacular 51.2 percent, to $178.6 billion, and memories of the economic recession melted away.

China’s trade with Latin America is growing at nearly twice the level of US trade with the region. It also is significantly higher than the 31 percent increase in trade between the European Union and Latin America last year.

Click here to read more direct from the Latin American Business Chronicle

Img: Courtesy of Wikicommons

Andina News Agency has just reported (technically announced) the 5th China-Latin American Business Summit will be held in Lima this year:

Lima, Mar. 30 (ANDINA). The Peruvian capital will host the 5th China-Latin American Business Summit to be held from November 21-22 this year at The Westin Libertador hotel, the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) reported.

CCPIT Latin America and Oceania Department Director Lei Hong said that Peru was chosen as the venue because of the recent Free Trade Agreement (FTA) signed with China, which is why Peru’s Foreign Ministry is organizing the event.

According to her, some 300 entrepreneurs from the Asian giant attended the previous editions, and a similar amount is expected for this year’s summit.

In addition, an exhibition of products from China and other participating countries, as well as business roundtables and meetings among CEOs will also take place.

The previous business summits have been carried out in Santiago (Chile), Harbin (China), Bogota (Colombia), and Chengdu (China).

* To be Sinopec’s first upstream exposure in Argentina

* Deal represents fair price – analyst

* Occidental concessions in Argentina due to expire in 2017

* China average oil demand grew about 13 pct y/y in Oct

(Adds analyst quotes, deal history)

By Jim Bai and Farah Master

BEIJING/HONG KONG Dec 10 (Reuters) – China Petrochemical Corp, parent of Sinopec Corp , agreed to buy all of U.S.-based Occidental Petroleum Corp’s oil and gas assets in Argentina for $2.45 billion, marking the energy giant’s first foray into the upstream market in the Latin America country.

Sinopec’s move adds to a growing list of outbound deals in the natural resources sector by state-backed Chinese firms in the past two years as the world’s most populous nation scrambles to secure resources for its surging economy.

Click here to read the full article, direct from Reuters

Dr. Gallagher is a Professor at Boston University in International Relations and is faculty coordinator for Boston University’s Global Development Policy Program. Furthermore, In 2009 he served on the investment subcommittee of the US Department of State’s of the Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy. Professor Gallagher writes regular columns on global economic and development policy for The Guardian, Financial Times, and POLITICO.  He co-chairs the Triple Crisis blog.

In the roughly 30 minutes we talked, we discussed

What motivated you? Dr. Gallagher to write the Sino-Latin American dynamic and motivated him to write The Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin American Industrialization

Mr. Gallagher’s inspiration emerged from the 3 years he spent living in Guadalajara, also known as Mexico’s Silicon Valley.  During his time in Mexico, it became very clear there was a “new kid on the block.”  When speaking with Mexican professionals, the US market and future significance for the Mexican economy had to Mr. Gallagher’s surprise taken a back seat to the emergence of China.

It was around this time in 2005, Dr. Gallagher began to investigate what the rise of China meant for both Mexico, and the greater Latin America region.  Would China’s high speed growth and fast rising competitiveness undermine Latin America’s capacity to develop their own competitive industries, or would China’s rise breed new possibilities and growth in Latin American countries?  This formed foundation for his book, which you can click here to purchase a copy of.

Next we discussed the general importance of the growth of Sino-Latin American relations and trade.

Similar to the perspectives often presented here at ChinaSouthAmerica.com, Dr. Gallagher feels the rise of China and its penetration in Latin America comes with a significant amount of uncertainty for the region, offering both opportunities and dangers.  The opportunities are clearer for some countries than others.

For major commodity producers down in South America; Venezuela, Peru, Chile and Argentina the rewards are being felt tangibly, and NOW.  China has presented itself as a new market for their raw materials exports, and Chinese demand has helped push the prices of raw materials to record highs.  However, the danger is that history may well repeat itself if the income generated from selling raw materials to China are not re-deployed efficiently and strategically to create sustainable, globally competitive industries.

The panorama for Mexico and Brazil, Latin America’s economic giants share some similarities because both countries have well a relatively broad range of developed, competitive industrial sectors.  In this case, China is a challenger to their own industries.  The positive and negatives effects of being forced to compete with their Chinese counterparts is debatable, but thus it seems Mexican and Brazilian companies have managed to meet the challenge and it seems Chinese competition will in the long-run catalyze innovation and economies of scale.

On the other hand, there are also major differences for Mexico and Brazil when considering China.  The major difference, and one that is impossible to overlook, is undoubtedly Mexico’s proximity to the United States.    Mexico competes almost directly with China’s manufacturing sector.  The major factor which will dictate how the future unfolds concerns how well Mexico can capitalize off the geographic competitive advantage of being at the door step of the world’s largest consumer market.  It will be important to monitor:

• Rising wages in China vs. Mexico.
• Raw material costs
• The total costs of producing increasingly sophisticated manufactured goods in both countries vs. total time it takes to produce and deliver the goods to the end buyers.

What’s next? Right now the majority of interaction between China and Latin America is occurring at a two levels—government to government, and major company to company.  What are your perspectives on the future of growth of a third level of exchange—that being personal ones between Chinese and Latin Americans down on the ground in both China and Latin America?  What types of opportunities does the future hold for the next generation that is able to form these links?

Like your author of ChinaSouthAmerica.com, Dr. Gallagher believes this to be the “million dollar question,” and one that is not easy to answer.  We will sadly have to wait for his next book which will focus on this question, and which your author hopes to help Mr. Gallagher answer when the time comes.

To conclude, I asked Dr. Gallagher about if he had any thoughts to share on the specific countries of Peru, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia– the countries which your author most closely follows.

“These are a very diverse set of countries, and I wouldn’t dare generalize across the entire set of them.  The one thing I can say about each of these is that in terms of copper (Peru and Chile), Iron (Brazil), soy (Brazil and Argentina), and crude oil (Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela) this particular set of Latin American nations and the respective commodities is very strategic for China.  China will continue to purchase imports of these commodities and to invest heavily in them.  These country’s governments should be strategic in return.  In order to get the broadest set of benefits from this new market player in China, Latin Americans have to see to it that they can also provide stable supplies over time, create jobs for their people, and manage their exchange rates so that commodities exports don’t crowd out more productive and employment creating activity.  If these nations see China as an opportunity, by bargaining hard with the Chinese and put in place parallel policies in terms of jobs, industrialization, and environmental policy, China may turn out to be a boon.“

As I am currently writing this post from China, where this book is not yet available, I unfortunately have not yet been able to get my hands on a copy of this book. In the 30 minutes I spoke with Dr. Gallagher he exhibited great insight on all that is the growth of Sino-Latin American relations and economic exchange.  I look forward to reading the book for myself after I get my hands on a copy in January when I travel to the US and South America.  If you the reader seek a rich and comprehensive analysis on the growth of China and Latin America’s relations, ChinaSouthAmerica highly recommends you pick up your own copy of The Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin American Industrialization.

CLICK HERE to buy your own copy (hardcover) from Amazon.com of The Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin American Industrialization

or, CLICK HERE for the soft cover edition

Brazil and natural resources are the main focus for China’s investments in Latin America writes Kevin P. Gallagher

China’s foreign investment into Africa has been generating a great deal of controversy. Some argue that China is becoming the new colonial power over Africa, others see China as a key source of foreign exchange that may finally help spur long-run economic growth in Africa [...click above to access the full story].

2. India Exports to Latin America

Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Jyotiraditya Scindia has emphasised the need for a shift in export from northern hemisphere to southern hemisphere in line with south-south cooperation. He said that while advanced nations would show an import growth of around 0.9-1 per cent in future, developing economies would exhibit an import growth between 4.5 and 5 per cent.

Mr. Scindia was speaking at a function organised by the Federation of Indian Export Organisations here on Tuesday to present the Niryat Shree and the Niryat Bandhu awards 2008-09. The awards honour outstanding exporters, export promotion councils, commodity boards, export development authorities, banks and other agencies.

Highlighting the potential and complementaries of economies between India and Latin America, the Minister said India needed to augment its exports to Latin American countries as these were vibrant economies. “The government will chalk out a strategy to facilitate exports and investment after an in-depth study which will be commissioned shortly,” he added [...click above to access the full story].

Silver - Wikicommons

The 9th China International Silver Conference (CISC) will be held this week ,October 15-17.  Major players from across the industry will be heading to Beijing to partake and climb the Fragrant Hills, a beautiful mountain landscape on the outskirts of Beijing which your author climbed back in the fall of 2006.

Here’s some background information on the event. and if this isn’t enough feel free to visit http://silver2010.antaike.com/ for additional info.

As countries around the world have taken a proactive fiscal policy and monetary stimulus, as a result of the global financial crisis, economies have started to show signs of moderate recovery. At the end of 2009, international commodity markets began to rebound; gold and silver were no exception. The world economy continues to suggest complexity and uncertainty and the European sovereign credit crisis is deepening. Many analysts suggest that the price of gold and silver will continue to rise.

In 2010, two principles of global economic recovery are industrial resurgence and the gradual withdraw of government stimulus policy. Governments, under the overall objective background of improving global industrial structure, encouraging economic development methodologies, and controlling inflation, are exploring the new international financial state of affairs. In this post-crisis era, it is also important to grasp potential new financial regulations. The 9th CISC will examine new trends in the global silver market, and discuss ways market participants can help further accelerate silver industrial restructuring and revitalization.

Accordingly, the 2010 China International Silver Conference, will be hosted by Gems & Jewelry Trade Association of China, and co-hosted by China General Chamber of Commerce, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China Chamber of Commerce of Metals Minerals & Chemicals Importers and Exporters, and the Silver Institute. The CISC is will be organized by Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd, and will be held in Beijing, at the Fragrant Hill Empark Hotel (five stars) on October 15th-17th, 2010.

9th China International Silver Conference (CISC) will invite important national ministries and leading global industry executives, as well as experts in China and abroad to discuss macroeconomics and the global financial situation, silver industry policy orientation, industry upgrades and technical progress. Additionally, Oct 16th is the Double Ninth Festival in the Chinese lunar calendar, which is an auspicious day worthy of celebration. The custom of ascending a height to avoid epidemics was passed down from long time ago. CISC organizers in particular are looking forward to a climbing tour to Fragrance Hill in
accordance with this event.

Conference Theme: Focus on Beijing, Explore in Development, Open up Interspace
Conference Date: Oct 15th-17th, 2010 Beijing, China
Conference Address: Fragrant Hill Empark Hotel (five stars), Beijing

Conference Scale: 300-400 attendees
Conference Attendee: Silver and precious metals producers, consumers, traders, stock and bond brokers, investors, researchers, media and etc
Conference Format: Reports, Discussion and Activities

Hosted by： Gems & Jewelry Trade Association of China
China General Chamber of Commerce
China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association
China Chamber of Commerce of Metals Minerals & Chemicals Importers and Exporters
The Silver Institute

Organized by：Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd.
Co-hosted by：Henan Jiyuan Jinli Smelting Co., Ltd.