Newswire: Latin America

Argentina’s trade surplus contracts 42.8% during September – MercoPress
Argentina’s September trade surplus narrowed 42.8% from the same month a year ago, with exports falling even faster than imports, the government said this week. September’s 926 million US dollars surplus, which fell short of analysts’ expectations, is the smallest since January.

Brazil Soybean Growers Speed Up Planting on Rains, Safras Says – Bloomberg
Soybean growers in Brazil, the world’s second- largest producer, are speeding up planting of the oilseed as above-average rains improve soil conditions, Safras & Mercados analyst Flavio Franca Jr. said.

Soybean planting was 17 percent complete as of Oct. 16, compared with 8 percent a year earlier and an average of 5 percent in the past five years, said Franca Jr., who is based in Porto Alegre, Brazil.

Brazil Bank Keeps Rate, Signals No Increase Imminent – Bloomberg
Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) — Brazil’s central bank kept its key interest rate at a record low last night and said its level was “consistent” with a non-inflationary recovery, signaling that no increase in borrowing costs is imminent.

The bank, in a statement accompanying the board’s unanimous decision to keep the benchmark rate at 8.75 percent, repeated word-for-word the communique issued Sept. 2 when it paused after five straight cuts this year.

Colombian drug lord gets 45 years – Reuters

Cocaine kingpin, Diego Montoya, the former head of Colombia’s Norte del Valle cartel is sentenced in a Miami court to 45 years in prison.

Pemex May Renegotiate Oil-Service Accords, Minister Kessel Says – Bloomberg
Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) — Petroleos Mexicanos, Latin America’s largest oil producer, may seek to renegotiate oilfield-service contracts with companies such as Halliburton Co., Schlumberger Ltd. and Weatherford International Ltd. to try and boost output.

New laws allow state-owned Pemex, as the company is known, to offer performance-based contracts, Mexican Energy Minister Georgina Kessel said yesterday in an interview in Mexico City.

Peru’s BCP to Sell Benchmark Dollar Bonds in Overseas Markets – Bloomberg BCP, as the bank is known, hired Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. to arrange the bond sale, said the person, who declined to be identified because terms aren’t set. The company will begin marketing the offering Oct. 26. A benchmark issue is typically for at least $500 million.

Uruguay’s presidential election next Sunday too tight to call – MercoPress
Uruguay’s coming Sunday presidential election is proving to be more nerve-racking and difficult to forecast than anticipated, with the ruling coalition just a few inches away from repeating in spite of the falling performance of the main opposition candidate.

[Commodities] — Is the rally over?

Commodity Rally May Falter on Supply, Speculators

June 29 (Bloomberg) — Commodities, heading for the first quarterly advance in a year, may struggle to repeat their gains in the next three months as supply expands and speculators sell.

Nickel may average 29 percent less in the third quarter than now, crude oil 16 percent, copper 14 percent and gasoline 10 percent, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Hedge funds and speculators cut their bets on higher prices by 23 percent in the two weeks ended June 23, the first back-to-back drop since March, based on an index using U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. The World Bank said June 22 the global recession will be deeper than it expected three months ago.

“Commodities have gotten a little ahead of themselves,” said Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps oversee $30 billion at Morgan Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama. “As long as there’s uncertainty about growth, that’s going to be headwind commodities won’t be able to overcome.”

Commodities rose 14 percent this quarter, led by nickel, oil and sugar, after three consecutive declines, according to the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials. This year’s 57 percent advance in oil costs, combined with widening budget deficits, may cause another global slump, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economics professor who predicted the financial crisis.

Click here to access the full article from Bloomberg

Jim Rogers: Profit from commodities, currencies and bonds in times of crisis

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Can’t seem to find part 2. Rogers covers his general view of where markets currently are and where he’s putting his money right now.

China and Brazil seal $10 billion deal

[South-South Cooperation] — China, Brazil

Lula da Silva & Hu Jintao

Chinese President Hu Jintao and his Brazilian counterpart, Lula da Silva, finished writing the latest chapter in Sino-Brazilian Cooperation earlier today in Beijing.

ChinaSouthAmerica has been following this story for a few months now, and I must say, it is nice to see a classic example of South-South Cooperation / Emerging Market Cooperation (whatever you want to call it) develop and eventually get finalized.

Here are a few excerpts from a WSJ article that a great job of summing up the details.

State-owned Brazilian oil giant Petroleo Brasileiro SA said it finalized a $10 billion loan agreement from China in return for a long-term supply of oil, another victory for China’s new strategy of using its cash-rich banks to help secure the natural resources the country needs to keep its economy growing.
…

Petroleo Brasileiro, known as Petrobras, said under the terms of the 10-year loan from China Development Bank, which has been at the center of China’s resources policy, Brazil would supply China Petrochemical Corp., known as Sinopec, 150,000 barrels of oil a day for the first year, rising to 200,000 barrels a day for another nine years.

…

Mr. Gabrielli said the loan’s interest rate was under 6.5%, and the loan used oil revenue as collateral but would be repaid in cash — not oil. Although the deal didn’t include guarantees to buy Chinese products or services, other deals will work on exploring closer cooperation, such as moving Chinese equipment factories to Brazil.

…

China’s mission to secure commodities does not stop with Brazil–as you are well aware if your a frequent reader at this site.

Beijing has struck similar agreements with energy producers world-wide in recent months, including a $10 billion deal with Kazakhstan and a $25 billion deal with Russian oil and pipeline companies.

…

Stay tuned for further developments and ChinaSouthAmerica’s analysis this deal and growth of Sino-Brazilian Cooperation.

Weekend Newswire: Commodities

[Crude Oil] – Oil Falls on Speculation Recovery Will Falter, Reducing Global Fuel Demand
Crude oil fell the most in almost a month on concern the global economic recovery may falter, reducing demand for fuel.

[Natural Gas] — Nymex Gas Falls as Reports Show Industrial Demand Will Be Slow to Recover
Natural gas futures fell for a third day as reports showed that demand for the fuel from factories and power plants will be slow to recover during the recession.

[Copper] – Copper’s U-Shaped Base Signals Rise, StanChart Says: Technical Analysis
Copper may rise to levels not seen since October in the month ahead, as the metal forms a U-shaped base, Standard Chartered Bank said, citing trading patterns.

[Gold & Silver] — Gold Advances in N.Y. on Speculation Equity Rally May Stall; Silver Gains
Gold prices rose, extending a rally to two weeks, as investment demand increased on rising consumer prices and signs that a rally in U.S. equities may be ending. Silver futures fell.

[Platinum & Palladium] — Platinum Falls as Dim Auto Outlook Cuts Demand in N.Y.; Palladium Gains
Platinum prices fell as the U.S. auto- industry slump eroded demand for the metal used in pollution- control parts. Palladium rose for the first time this week.

[Steel] — China Steel Industry Likely to Post Loss in 2009, Baosteel Chairman Says
China’s steel industry may post a loss this year, Baosteel Group Corp. Chairman Xu Lejiang said at a conference in Shanghai today. Xu said the Chinese steel industry is oversupplied and faces severe structural problems that have been worsened by the financial crisis.

[Soybeans] — Soybeans Head for Third Weekly Gain as Demand Cuts U.S. Supply
Soybeans climbed, heading for a third weekly gain, on speculation that increased global demand may further reduce inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest grower and exporter of the crop.

[Investments] — Where Commodities Fit In Your Portfolio
Commodities are a great way to diversify your portfolio, but if you are considering allocating some money to the group, don’t expect to catch a draft in the near future, even if there are signs the worst of the global slowdown may be over.

Jim Rogers: "We are going to have serious food shortages in a few years"

Jim Rogers sits down with Bloomberg host Haslinda Amin in his home base of Singapore. Haslinda gets a full twenty minutes to test his patience while she asks what his opinions are on investing in a variety of investment categories. Commodities. Currencies. North American Natural Gas. Yen Carry Trade. Agriculture. Equities. ETF’s.

As usual, Jim Rogers is sticking to what he knows best-raw materials. If you’re a new reader, or have not heard of Jim Rogers definitely run a search on the right of his name to bring up past posts and videos including him.

Part 1 /3

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Part 2 / 3

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Part 3 / 3

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Jim Rogers: Speak Mandarin, Don't Buy America

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