APEC’s supply chain connectivity and its benefit to agro-industry

[Source] : The Jakarta Post

This year, Indonesia will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Conference in October 2013, and will hold four Senior Officials Meetings (SOMs), 12 Sector Ministerial Meetings, an APEC CEO Summit and the Economic Leaders Meeting. From Jan. 24 to Feb. 8, APEC, SOM I and related meetings are taking place in Jakarta.

APEC is an intergovernmental forum dedicated to promoting free trade, investment and economic cooperation throughout the Asia-Pacific region.

As stated earlier this month by Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa, Indonesia will include its own national interest issues on the agenda such as economic resilience, improvement of small- and medium-scale business competitiveness, sustainable growth and food security.

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What are the ecological costs of China’s future food imports?

[Source] : China Dialogue

Tom Levitt
September 10, 2012

China’s growing agribusinesses and demand for soybeans and meat is bringing intensive farming and the risk of further deforestation in Brazil and beyond. Tom Levitt reports.

The dynamics of Chinese agriculture are changing. While it may still be largely self-sufficient in food, the country is expected to enter an era of rising food imports and in particular, animal feed. But how ready is China to take responsibility for the environmental impact of this growing overseas footprint?

Over the past two decades, China has seen a monumental surge in soybean imports. By 2030, China is expected to consume 72 million tonnes of soybeans from overseas – more than one-quarter of the world’s total soybean production today.

The impact, environmentalists fear, is greater pressure on uncultivated forested land in Brazil, the world’s second largest soybean producer after the United States and a major exporter to China. In 2011, more than 67% of Brazil’s soybean exports were sent to China. By no coincidence, the South American country is now emerging as a major focus of investment for China’s expanding agribusinesses.

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Latin America’s China Addiction (Part 2): Are Commodity Prices Showing Signs Of Recovery?

[Source] : Seeking Alpha

Click here to read part 1 of this story 

China’s economic soft-landing has had a significant impact on economic growth across the globe and particularly in Latin America where mining and commodities production are key drivers of economic activity. In the first article of this series the linkage between Latin American economic growth, commodities exports and Chinese economic growth was illustrated. This showed that China’s slowing economy and decreased demand for commodities has been a key catalyst for the fall in economic growth across the region. It has also been a key catalyst for the plunging share prices being experienced by many resource companies, which include some of Latin America’s largest publicly tradable companies like Vale (VALE) and Petrobras (PBR).

Market outlook on commodities growing more optimistic

However, markets have been taking a more optimistic view of China and commodities over the last month. This growing optimism is based on signs that the contraction in Chinese economic activity is easing along with increasing speculation that the Chinese government will take action to boost growth. This has led to considerable speculation that there will be a recovery in commodities prices, which should see a renewal of economic growth in Latin America.

One of the key drivers of this growing optimism has been the slowing contraction of the Chinese manufacturing sector, with the Chinese purchasing managers’ index (PMI), rising in July to a five month high. There has also been renewed confidence in the iron ore mining sector with Australia’s third largest iron ore producer Fortescue Metal’s Group (FSUMF.PK) recently reporting an 8% increase in profit, along with positive statements from both Rio Tinto (RIO) and Vale concerning the future direction of iron ore prices. However, with the exception of crude oil it appears that this optimism is misplaced with commodity and basic materials prices continuing to fall.

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Jim Rogers (commodity guru) talks, people (should) listen

China Easing Moves ‘A Mistake’: Jim Rogers 

[Source] : CNBC

Image courtesy of Wikicommons

“I think they’re a mistake and there’s still inflation in China,” said Rogers on CNBC Asia’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday, referring to cuts in China’s reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and interest rates earlier this year.

“Yes, the property bubble has popped and prices have started coming down but not enough in my view. The most recent statistics show that Chinese property market is starting to recover,” he said.

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Jim Rogers Says Silver Is A Better Investment Than Gold

[Source] : Seeking Alpha

By Jared Cummans

Jim Rogers is easily one of the most famous investors of all time. His astounding track record has led him to become one of the most successful traders ever, earning deep respect throughout the financial world. Better yet, Rogers is not the least bit shy about speaking his mind, whether he is right or wrong. Some of his previous statements included the fact that anyone who doesn’t invest in commodities is a fool, that gold will surely drop 20% from its current levels, and now, Rogers has stated that silver is a better investment than gold.

Gold investing has long dominated the precious metals space, as investors have used this ultra-popular metal as both a trading/speculative instrument as well as an integral part of a longer term strategy. While silver still has a large presence in the financial world, it is not often that a big name steps into the limelight and touts this white metal over its gold counterpart.

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Rare question and answer Xinhua Exclusive on China- Latam relations

Thank you Xinhua News. Please click here to access the article from Xinhua News.

Yang Wanming, director-general of the the Department of Latin American and Caribbean Affairs of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, exchanged views with chinanews.com readers online on Tuesday afternoon.

 

Yang Wanming, director-generalof the Department of Latin American and Caribbean Affairs of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, answers questions from chinanews.com readers online on Jan 17, 2012. [Photo/Chinanews.com]

 

Topic: China-Latin America cooperation in culture

Q: How do China and Latin America cooperate in the field of culture?

A: China has opened 32 Confucius institutes in Latin America, covering almost all Latin American countries. Both sides also send art troupes to visit one another and conduct people-to-people exchanges. Many Chinese people like their football, music and dances and engage in studying Spanish and Portuguese. Many Chinese books have also been translated into Spanish and sold in Latin America.

Topic: Cooperation in energy

Q: What’s the current situation with Sino-Latin American energy cooperation? Some people think China is plundering energy resources there and uses it as a way to curb the US.

A: China is trying to carry out comprehensive cooperation with Latin American countries and its efforts have been well welcomed by them. The cooperation not only benefits the two parties, but also contributes to global peace, stability and prosperity. It started late and is on a relatively small scale, but has been developing fast. China imported 20.73 million tons of crude oil from Latin American countries in 2010, which accounts for 8.7 percent of China’s total import in that year. Venezuela has become China’s 4th largest oil provider. The two parties will explore cooperation on new energy. It’s totally based on equality and mutual benefit and will do no harm to the third party.

Topic: US view on China-Latin America relationship

Q: The relationship between China and Latin American countries has developed so fast. What do you think of the feeling in the US to this?

A: In recent years, the independence of Latin American countries is growing and its economic growth momentum becomes more diverse than before.

The rapid development of China-Latin America relations is on the basis of mutual benefit and win-win for both sides and is within the needs of Latin American countries’ diversified diplomacy and development strategy.

It will not only benefit development of both, but also contribute to the world’s stability and development.

China and the US have already established a consultation mechanism on Latin-America, and through four different consultations, the two parties have enhanced their mutual trust on this issue.

And the US has repeatedly stressed in their consultations that strengthening relations between China and Latin American countries will be good for Latin-America’s stability and development.

Topic: Chinese workers kidnapped in Colombia

Q: It was reported that several Chinese employees were kidnapped in Colombia by unidentified armed militants. How are they now? Could you release some information about the rescue efforts?

A: Four Chinese workers were kidnapped by some unknown armed militants in Caquetá province in Colombia on June 8, 2011. We have urged the Colombia authority to spare no effort to carry on the rescue work under the premise of guaranteeing the safety of hostages. Since then, the Chinese embassy in Colombia has kept in close cooperation and contact with Colombia’s relevant departments. The rescue work has not finished yet, but the safety of the four hostages can be guaranteed. Chinese companies are facing more risks as they go global on a larger scale. We need to increase our political backup and diplomatic guarantee to them, strengthen the consular protection and safeguard their legitimate interests. Meanwhile we advise Chinese people in Latin America to improve their sense of safety and precaution.

Q: How about China-Mexico relations?

A: China and Mexico are both developing countries and are working at enhancing people’s living standards. They hold the same positions on many international issues and regularly cooperate on these..

China and Mexico have some trade friction over trade imbalance problems, but we hope both sides can deal with the problems reasonably and from a development point of view.

We hope both can take active measures to promote the diverse, comprehensive and healthy development of the two countries’ economic and trade relations.

February 14 marks the 40th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Mexico. We believe the relations can become more comprehensive, steadier and healthier with the two countries’ joint efforts in the future.

Q: Can you talk about the relationship between China and Brazil?

A: Brazil is one of the biggest countries in Latin America and one of the emerging powers in the region. The China-Brazil relationship is one of the most important between China and Latin America.

In recent years, the strategic partnership between China and Brazil has made considerable progress. They maintain a good momentum of high-level exchanges and the political mutual trust is deepened.

Their economical cooperation is also deepening constantly, which has brought tangible benefits to people of both countries. Bilateral trade volume exceeded $80 billion in 2011. Investment cooperation in finance, energy, steel, and machine manufacturing has also made great progress, and is expanding constantly.

China and Brazil have active exchanges in science, technology and culture as well.

The cooperation in the fields of Earth resource satellites, agricultural technology and aviation is progressing continuously. And the cooperation in culture and education is also very close.

China’s Confucius Institute Headquarters opened two Confucius Institutes and a Confucius school in Brazil and Brazil’s important media institutions have sent many journalists to work in China.

China and Brazil are both developing countries and have broad and consistent interests on major international issues. The Chinese government attaches great importance to relations with Brazil and believes the two countries’ cooperation in various fields will make great progress with their joint efforts.

 

Jim Rogers on Euro, Investment Strategy, MF Global – BLOOMBERG

Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) — Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks about his investment strategy and the collapse of MF Global Holdings Ltd. Rogers, speaking with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance Midday,” also discusses the outlook for Brazil. (Source: Bloomberg)

Click here to watch the video direct from Bloomberg

Self-sufficient food policy benefits world – China Daily

Early this year, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) issued a special alert warning that North China, the country’s wheat basket, was suffering from a severe winter drought that could devastate China’s wheat harvest, putting further pressure on world wheat prices that have been rising rapidly in recent years.

Underlying the FAO’s warning is the central message that should China lose its winter wheat crop, it will go to the international grain market to make up any shortfall. The sudden entry of such a huge buyer could certainly rock the international food markets.

However, the FAO’s warning is a false alarm. First, because for the past six to seven years, China has lost around 7 percent of its annual grain output to various forms of natural disasters, and yet its annual grain production has been on the rise. In 2010 China’s total grain production was a historical record of 546 million tons. Second, successive years of bumper grain harvests have enabled China to build up a large grain reserve of more than 40 percent of its annual consumption – much higher than the world average of around 17-18 percent. The growth in grain productivity for the past three decades has been very impressive, particularly since 2004.

China’s population accounts for 21 percent of the world’s total population, but the country is endowed with only about 9 percent of the world’s arable land. Feeding such a vast nation, with such an unfavorable man-land ratio, has always been a great challenge for China’s rulers, past and present. Hence the old Chinese adage: “An economy without strong agriculture is fragile, and a country without sufficient grain will be chaotic”.
Even in modern times it remains an enormous task for the Chinese government to ensure food security. China’s serious food crisis between 1959-1962 is still fresh in the collective memory of the present generation of Chinese leadership. Therefore, China has always taken food security very seriously, much more so than many other countries. Food security in China basically means “food self-sufficiency”, with the bottom line set at 95 percent of domestic grain supply.

Such a stringent definition of food security naturally puts an additional burden on the government. The problem is aggravated by the fact that for the past three decades, China’s total population increased from 960 million in 1978 to 1.3 billion in 2009, while arable land, the total sown area, increased only marginally by 5.4 percent.

Worse still, the total sown area devoted to food crops declined substantially from 80 percent in 1978 to just 64 percent in 2009, mainly because, with economic prosperity and rising incomes, farmers were growing more lucrative non-grain commercial crops.

Accordingly, China has come to depend heavily on increasing the output per unit of land area to maintain its food security. This, in turn, needs continual technological progress, such as using hybrids or other high-yielding varieties, and increasing intensification of cultivation with greater use of modern inputs like chemical fertilizers and pesticide.

The trouble is that barring the use of genetically modified (GM) crops, the productivity growth potential of traditional technological progress based on modern seeds and modern inputs has started to slow down everywhere in the world. Widespread use of modern inputs of industrial origins also inflicts long-term ecological damage.

Rapid economic and social changes have further worked against food production. Industrialization and urbanization in China as elsewhere inevitably spell agricultural decline. Farming is also becoming economically and socially unattractive to young people. As in other densely populated East Asian economies with severe land constraints, food production in China has also become an increasingly high-cost business.

With China having achieved successful industrial take-off, economic theory suggests that it should have a stronger comparative advantage to export labor-intensive manufactured products to the United States in exchange for its cheaper food produced by land-extensive farming. In other words, China should scale down its existing high level of food self-sufficiency and let international trade take care of any shortfalls, much as Japan has done.

However, the world has a stake in China’s strong food security. If China followed the economic theory of comparative advantage by relying on international trade to achieve its food security, its import requirement would seriously destabilize the international grain market and drive up world inflation.

It is therefore in the favor of the whole world for China to rigidly adhere to its basic tenet of maintaining strong food self-sufficiency.

The author is director of the East Asian Institute, Singapore.

Brazil’s highway to China

Highway to China

Indeed, the real purpose of our helicopter trip was to view Mr Batista’s latest project, a vast superport north of Rio, built with this customer in mind.

The centrepiece of the complex is a two-mile-long pier jutting straight out into the South Atlantic, which has been dubbed “the highway to China”.

[...] Click here to read the full article direct from BBC

Commodity Markets; weekly roundup

Rogers International Commodity Index

(Oct 26-30, 2009)

*metals commodity prices obtained via Kitco Metals
*energy commodity prices obtained via Yahoo Finance
*agriculture commodity prices obtained via Yahoo Finance
*wheat futures via Bloomberg

Commodity Boom Will Thrive on Shortages, Rogers Says

Newswire: Jim Rogers

“I don’t see any adequate-supply situation in any commodity market over the next decade or two,” Rogers, the chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said today in an interview in New York. “The commodities boom is not over and the bull market has several years to go.”

“I own some cotton,” Rogers said. “I own some sugar,” he said. “Sugar will go much, much higher over the course of the bull market.”

“Oil could reach between $150 and $200 a barrel,” because known reserves of crude are declining, Rogers said. He said international relations, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, will help guide prices.

“Natural gas is very cheap,” he said in the interview between sessions at an ETF Securities Ltd. investor conference.

Commodities ‘Best Place’

“Commodities are the best place to be, if you ask me, based on supply and demand,” Rogers said. He said he hasn’t invested in equities outside of China in two years.

“Everything has gone through the roof,” Rogers said of equities prices, adding that he may consider buying stocks “if something collapses.”

Click here to read the complete Bloomberg article