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Commodity Markets; weekly roundup

Rogers International Commodity Index

Rogers International Commodity Index (Oct 26-30, 2009)

(Oct 26-30, 2009)

VALUE as of 10/30/09

Rogers Internatioanl Commodity Index

21.7

Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index

131.86

METALS

Copper (USD/lb)

2.92

Zinc (USD/lb)

0.97

Aluminum (USD/lb)

0.83

Lead (USD/lb)

1.03

Nickel (USD/lb)

8.22

Gold (USD/oz)

1045.7

Silver (USD/oz)

16.34

Platinum (USD/oz)

1329.00

Palladium (USD/oz)

325.00

ENERGY

Crude Oil (USD/bbl)

76.99

Natural Gas (USD/MMBtu)

5.012

AGRICULTURE

Corn (USD/bu)

366

Rice (USD/cwt)

14.36

Soybeans (USD/bu)

978

Wheat (USD/bu) *CBT

494

Live Hog (USD/lb)

56.7

Live Cattle (USD/lb)

85.68

*metals commodity prices obtained via Kitco Metals
*energy commodity prices obtained via Yahoo Finance
*agriculture commodity prices obtained via Yahoo Finance
*wheat futures via Bloomberg

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Commodity Boom Will Thrive on Shortages, Rogers Says

Newswire: Jim Rogers

“I don’t see any adequate-supply situation in any commodity market over the next decade or two,” Rogers, the chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said today in an interview in New York. “The commodities boom is not over and the bull market has several years to go.”

“I own some cotton,” Rogers said. “I own some sugar,” he said. “Sugar will go much, much higher over the course of the bull market.”

“Oil could reach between $150 and $200 a barrel,” because known reserves of crude are declining, Rogers said. He said international relations, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, will help guide prices.

“Natural gas is very cheap,” he said in the interview between sessions at an ETF Securities Ltd. investor conference.

Commodities ‘Best Place’

“Commodities are the best place to be, if you ask me, based on supply and demand,” Rogers said. He said he hasn’t invested in equities outside of China in two years.

“Everything has gone through the roof,” Rogers said of equities prices, adding that he may consider buying stocks “if something collapses.”

Click here to read the complete Bloomberg article

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Newswire: Commodities

commodities

China Nurtures Futures Markets in Bid to Sway Commodity Prices - WSJ

ZHENGZHOU, China — Chinese leaders are concerned that their nation’s enormous economic expansion is becoming an excuse for foreign suppliers to inflate commodity costs. So, they hope to use their three futures exchanges to fight back.

“It is true we have a long-term goal of increasing our influence in terms of pricing, but to do that we have to create conditions and do it step by step,” Jiang Yang, chief futures-industry policy maker and assistant chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said in an interview. “But as the Westerners say: ‘Rome was not built in a day.’

But Beijing believes hosting big futures markets will enhance the country’s economic security by essentially advertising what the world’s biggest customer for some commodities considers a fair price. For the rest of the world, the exchanges could mean less guesswork about China’s buying habits, possibly reducing volatility in the global market.

Silver Lining: Jim Rogers Talks Up Commodities – Time Magazine

Jim Rogers’ daughters may not have been born with silver spoons in their mouths, but they’ve got them now. Not silver spoons, exactly, but silver bullion. “My little girls don’t own stocks — they own commodities,” he says, “and that’s why they’ll be able to take care of me in retirement.”

Rogers sees three big secular trends now, and he’s acting on all of them. First, America’s role as the dominant economic power is declining, so why own American stocks? (He doesn’t.) Second, China is emerging, and even though it may have crises from time to time, it is a good place to invest. (He does.) Third — and this is the biggie — emerging nations including China are greatly increasing the future demand for commodities such as oil. (He’s in with both feet.)

“Thirty years ago, 3 billion people were not even participating in the world economy, and now they are trying to live like we do,” he notes. That emerging megaforce, says Rogers, will put a supertight squeeze on commodity prices across the board, from beef to bullion.

Oil Climbs Above $73, Nat. Gas Rallies as Equities Fly High – Rigzone

Jumping toward $74 a barrel on an American holiday, crude oil rallied more than $1 from last week’s closing price, bolstered by a weaker dollar and a rise in the equities market. Also gaining today, natural gas closed 12 cents below $5 as the energy commodity continues to strengthen despite bearish fundamentals.

After rallying to an intra-day high of $73.84, the price of crude oil settled slightly lower to $73.27 on the NYMEX Monday, a gain of $1.50 from Friday’s close. Additionally, the US dollar eased against a basket of foreign currencies, helping to spur a rally in today’s commodity prices.

China Iron Ore Imports Exceed Real Demand, CISA Says – Bloomberg via Chinamining.org

Iron ore imports by China, the world’s largest buyer, have exceeded real demand by 50 million metric tons this year, the country’s steel association said.

China’s iron ore imports surged to a record this year, hurting the group’s bid to negotiate a contract price cut bigger than the 33 percent offered by Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. The nation is looking at cutting the number of licensed importers, industry minister Li Yizhong reiterated today.

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South America; Energy Newswire

[Venezuela & Ecuador]Venezuela, Ecuador Exploring for Gas in Gulf of Guayaquil

Venezuela and Ecuador’s state energy firms said Wednesday that exploration is under way at a test well in Ecuador’s Gulf of Guayaquil, with expectations of finding up to 1.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

The two firms, Petroecuador and Petroleos de Venezuela, or PdVSA, announced their plans a year ago to drill for gas in the gulf’s 300,000-hectare block 4.

[Colombia] Petrolifera Executes Onshore Colombian License Contract with ANH

Petrolifera has executed the Magdalena exploration contract with the Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos (“ANH”) for the conversion of the Sierra Nevada II TEA into the Magdalena License, covering lands adjacent to the company’s Sierra Nevada License in the Lower Magdalena Valley, onshore Colombia. The Magdalena License comprises approximately 595,000 acres that is considered to be mainly prospective for natural gas and natural gas liquids. The minimum work commitment associated with the Magdalena License for the initial 15 month phase is primarily 150km2 of 3D seismic. As required by ANH, Petrolifera has established and funded a US $4.1MM trust, which in effect funds the assigned value of the initial work commitment of the License.

[Brazil]Chevron: New Oil Law Reduces Opportunities in Brazil

Changes to Brazil’s oil laws don’t allow much space for international oil companies to take part in recent offshore oil finds, the vice president for global upstream and gas at U.S. oil major Chevron Corp. said Wednesday.

In September, Brazil’s government proposed changes to the country’s regulatory framework, giving the government a greater stake in the discoveries and state-run energy giant Petrobras the lead role in development.

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October fire sale! Russian credit & Rubles accepted

Rigzone reported today that a Russian oil consortium would not have the pay the $1 billion usd Venezuela had previously requested as a down payment in order to partake in tapping Venezuela’s Orinoco oil fields.

Instead, the Russian consortium will only have to pay $600 million usd. Sounds like a nice 40% bargain to this blogger. It’s a nice deal if you ask me, which coincidentally comes on the heels of Venezuela’s securing a large credit line from Russia to buy military equipment.

Orinoco Belt Regions – [Rigzone, 10-6-09]

According to this Dow Jones Newswire published by Rigzone,

The Chavez-led government has talked about plans for nearly $70 billion in oil investments over the coming years as this oil-rich nation seeks to ramp up dwindling production numbers and boost its sagging economy.

But so far, nearly all those plans are based only on memorandums of understanding, with no solid investment commitments from foreign oil companies.

Sounds like Venezuela is becoming increasingly hungry not only for foreign investment, but also to cement its relations with a geopolitical power like the Russian Federation.

Click here to read the newswire article from Rigzone, which I must admit does a far better job at detailing the situation than the concise, and slightly cynical analysis published here at China South America (CSA).

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Studies to Eliminate Dollar in Brazil-China Trade Going Slow

China and Brazil have created a work group to study the possibility of implementation of a bilateral trade program in their respective currencies, in replacement of the North American dollar, said a source in the Central Bank of Brazil.

“The negotiations are still in an initial phase, with a work group having been created with representatives of Brazil and China, who also met during the G-20 summit, in London,” explained a source.

The next step should be the visit of a Central Bank of Brazil delegation to China, “despite there being no forecast as to when it may come true,” said the source.

The work group should analyze the “results to be reached through an agreement that China recently established with Argentina” – the first country in South America to benefit from trade exchanges in the same currency with the Asian giant and with whom Brazil has also been developing the same program since September 2008.

The Central Banks of China and Brazil are also going to develop a “study of the potential bilateral trade volume to analyze the possibility of an agreement.”

Click here to read the full article

Written by Newsroom
Wednesday, 16 September 2009
[Source] – brazzilmag.com

a2a_linkname=”Studies to Eliminate Dollar in Brazil-China Trade Going Slow”;a2a_linkurl=”http://chinasouthamerica.blogspot.com/2009/09/studies-to-eliminate-dollar-in-brazil.html”;

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Chinese Oil Firms Bid for Repsol's Argentine unit

Chinese oil conglomerates China National Petroleum and Cnooc have offered to pay an estimated $17 billion usd for all of Repsol YPF’s state in its Argentine unit called YPF.

You can read the Wall Street Journal’s paraphrased article (the original costs money) at thestreet.com, by visiting this article.

Will this deal actually be completed? China South America reported on this possible deal back on July 7, 2009. You will notice, the offer at this point was only $14.5 billion for a 75% stake. China has since upped the offer and is now looking to buy the entire thing.

Why China? Are you angry over Australia rejecting your Rio bid? Are you feeling flustered that countries from the industrialized world, but also in Africa and Latin America are starting to think twice about selling the rights to their raw materials?

I don’t blame them, after all, Australia is quite similar to South American commodity producing countries. Two note worthy and simple similarities include

  1. A large portion of GDP is generated from commodity exports
  2. The relative strength or weakness of domestic currencies such as the Ausie Dollar, Argentine Peso, Peruvian Sol and Brazilian Real, are all inherently linked to the global market price of the commodities the countries export. [ie: if the spot price for copper drops 50%, observe what happens to Peru and Chile’s Peso’s.

According to the WSJ article, the main obstacles to this deal include

  • Spain is hesitant to see some of its best assets in Argentina be sold to China
  • Argentina’s government has no financial stake in YPF, but nonetheless under Argentine law has the right to veto decisions such as transfer of ownership. In my personal opinion, this translates into who is willing to pay more “under the table” to the Argentine government.
  • China National Petroleum and Cnooc are state owned organizations. Despite their growing influence and presence in oil markets around the world, many governments still remain weary of doing business with companies officially tied to a foreign government.

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China to buy Repsol Assets in Argentina – Update

[China - Argentina - Spain]

China’s CNPC said offering $14.5 billion for Repsol investment – Market Watch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — China National Petroleum Corp. has offered up to $14.5 billion for a majority stake in the Argentine unit of Spanish oil company Repsol YPF SA, according to media reports published on Tuesday.

The South China Morning Post, citing unnamed sources, reported that CNPC has offered between $13.2 billion and $14.5 billion for a 75% stake in the unit.

Dow Jones Newswires reported that Repsol said last week that it had received proposals from a number of companies for a stake in the unit.

China has been acquiring energy assets as its growing economy demands more resources to support its needs.

Sinopec has also secured a deal with Brazilian firm Petrobras (PEFGF) to supply it with 150,000 barrels of crude a day this year, and 200,000 barrels per day for nine years starting in 2010, according to the state-run China Daily.

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Argentina and Spanish oil giant Repsol still thinking…

[China - Argentina - Spain]


Pretty good Wall Street Journal articles hit the presses in NYC today relating to the topic of Repsol selling their assets in Argentina to China

CNOOC Says Interested In Cooperation, Not Takeovers – EFE

Argentina Still Weighs on Repsol

Repsol is playing down speculation about unloading some of its 85% stake in Argentinian oil business YPF. But shareholders must hope a deal materializes, and soon. Apart from its exposure to Argentina’s political and economic risks, YPF ties up capital that Repsol could use to develop large recent Brazilian oil discoveries.

Unfortunately, what makes it wise for Repsol to sell YPF may deter potential buyers. YPF’s reserves are declining. Buenos Aires has to approve any share sale, while Repsol has committed to keep at least a 50.1% stake until 2012.

YPF also has to satisfy domestic oil demand — where prices are capped — before it can export, paying a punitive export tax. Chinese suitors, in particular, will likely bridle at such restrictions.

Click here, or the links above to view the complete articles from the WSJ

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[Commodities] — Is the rally over?

Commodity Rally May Falter on Supply, Speculators

June 29 (Bloomberg) — Commodities, heading for the first quarterly advance in a year, may struggle to repeat their gains in the next three months as supply expands and speculators sell.

Nickel may average 29 percent less in the third quarter than now, crude oil 16 percent, copper 14 percent and gasoline 10 percent, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Hedge funds and speculators cut their bets on higher prices by 23 percent in the two weeks ended June 23, the first back-to-back drop since March, based on an index using U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. The World Bank said June 22 the global recession will be deeper than it expected three months ago.

“Commodities have gotten a little ahead of themselves,” said Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps oversee $30 billion at Morgan Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama. “As long as there’s uncertainty about growth, that’s going to be headwind commodities won’t be able to overcome.”

Commodities rose 14 percent this quarter, led by nickel, oil and sugar, after three consecutive declines, according to the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials. This year’s 57 percent advance in oil costs, combined with widening budget deficits, may cause another global slump, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economics professor who predicted the financial crisis.

Click here to access the full article from Bloomberg

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Metals

Energy

Agriculture

Global Stock Markets

Archives – China South America