China (& India) – Latin America News Attack

Over the past few days my news radar has exploded with China-LatAm related news. Here are a few excerpts from the English articles.

Chinese investors become responsible in Latin America – study

LONDON (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – Chinese investors in Latin America are showing greater awareness of the social and environmental impacts of their business activities, and have started applying standards to make trade more sustainable, a research report said on Thursday.

The study from the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) looked at investment by Chinese state-owned enterprises in Peru, Brazil and Chile, in the mining, agriculture and forestry sectors. China is expected to overtake the European Union to become Latin America’s second-largest trade partner next year, after the United States, it noted.

Click here to read the complete article

China to the rescue of Argentina with a 10 billion dollars equivalent swap

Argentina is negotiating with China a new 10 billon dollars equivalent swap of international reserves support based on the experience of 2009 when the global financial crisis. The new accord should theoretically help Argentina strengthen its international position vis-à-vis the run on the dollar (or the flight from the Peso) and which has cost the Central bank 4 billion dollars so far this year.

Click here to read the complete article

Chinese Vice-president in Argentina to strengthen long-term strategic partnership

China is determined to advance in mutually beneficial cooperation with Argentina visiting Chinese Vice President Li Yuanchao said on his arrival on Thursday to Buenos Aires. He underlined that the new Chinese leadership will continue to perceive and develop bilateral relations from a long-term strategic perspective.

Click here to read the complete article

China In Latin America: Why Is Vice President Li Yuanchao Visiting Argentina And Venezuela This Week?

Chinese vice president Li Yuanchao arrives in Caracas this week to meet with Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello after having spent the second part of last week in Buenos Aires. In recent years, China has expanded its economic links with Latin American countries, with Chinese manufacturers establishing their presence throughout the region, while China has become a main source of growth in exports of raw materials like petroleum, copper, iron and soybeans. But Argentina and Venezuela are the two countries with which China has had an uncertain relationship.

Click here to read the complete article

Venezuela-China Trade Jumps

BY JOACHIM BAMRUD

Venezuela and Central America gain most in China trade.

Venezuela led the way in Latin American growth of exports to China and imports from the Asian country, according to a Latinvex analysis of data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In percentage terms, three of the top four trade growth winners are from Central America. And when it comes to Latin American exports to China, the top three countries in percentage increases are from Central America.

Click here to read the complete article

Chinese Vice-president asks Venezuelan government for efficiency in joint-projects

“We have to take care that these projects are effective and efficient, in the sense that they can play a positive role in employment and economic and social effects,” Li told Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua while touring the site.

“I hope the efficiency factor will be taken into consideration.”

The plant is for pasteurizing milk and producing other dairy products and is being constructed in Valles del Tuy, near the capital.

Click here to read the complete article

India’s Hero MotoCorp launches brand in Latin America

The country’s largest two-wheeler maker Hero MotoCorp today said it has launched the ‘Hero brand’ and its range of two-wheelers in Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras in Central America.

Hero MotoCorp also announced a partnership with the reputed Indy Motos Group of Guatemala to bring its two-wheelers to these markets. Under the alliance, Indy Motos has been appointed as the authorised distributor of Hero MotoCorp range of two-wheelers in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador.

Pawan Munjal, managing director and chief executive officer, Hero MotoCorp, said: “This launch is a significant milestone for us considering this is the first of the new international markets, where we are starting our operations.”

Click here to read the complete article

Peru’s non-traditional exports to China rise 92% in 2005-12

The Peruvian Exporters’ Association (Adex) has reported that China-bound exports of non-traditional products worth over US$ 1000 a year increased by 92 percent between 2005 and 2012.

According to official data, the number of these goods jumped from 108 to 207 in the period.

Adex said that exports of non-traditional products to China were valued at US$ 332.1 million in 2012, an increase of 29.3 percent compared to US$ 255.7 million in 2010.

Click here to read the complete article

Peru’s non-traditional exports to India up 389.22% in 2010-12

Peruvian exports of non traditional products to India grew by 389.22 percent to US$ 83.6 million between 2010 and 2012, the Peruvian Exporters’ Association (Adex) said Tuesday.

This sum accounts for 21.64 percent of total exports to the Asian country in 2012, when they amounted to US$ 386.6 million.

According to Adex, the increase shows that Peruvian exports are entering markets with sustained economic growth like India and China in a context of global crisis.

Click here to read the complete article

 

Humala touts Peru as China’s “bridge” to LatAm – EFE

[Source] : EFE / Global Post

Beijing, Apr 8 (EFE).- Peruvian President Ollanta Humala met here Monday with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, to whom he expressed the important role the Andean nation can play as a “bridge” of understanding between Latin America and China.

The two leaders met in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People on the fourth day of Humala’s visit to China after participating in the Boao Forum for Asia on the Chinese island of Hainan.

In Boao, the Peruvian president had already met with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to sign 11 cooperation accords.

“As events are developing, Peru can be the (primary) center for (Chinese) investments in Latin America,” Humala said.

Click here to read the complete article

Chinalco Mining tumbles 6.3pc on trading debut

[Source] : South China Morning Post

Shares in Chinalco Mining Corp International, which is developing a copper mine in Peru, closed 6.3 per cent lower than their offered price on their trading debut yesterday.

The sharp price fall might have been caused by retail investors, who tended to have a short investment horizon and were not familiar with the company’s operations and outlook, analysts said.

Chinalco Mining is the overseas non-aluminium and non-ferrous metals arm of state-owned Aluminum Corp of China (Chinalco).

“Chinalco Mining’s operation in Peru is a long way from Hong Kong and production will only begin late this year, so it’s not easy for local investors to picture its prospects,” said Christfund Securities research director Simon Lam Ka-hang.

Click here to read the complete article

Colombian president hails close ties with Asia

[Source] : NZ Week

BOGOTA, Jan. 24 — Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos said Thursday Colombia would consolidate its ties with Asian and African countries in order to create more business opportunities.

On an annual reception for diplomatic corps, Santos said his country has enjoyed close ties with Asian and African countries and he plans to keep close contact with these countries along his administration.

“Colombia has made significant progress in diplomacy,” said Santos.

Colombia has become more active in working with regional organizations, such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and it now tops the waiting list to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) after two years of “intense and serious” preparation.

Click here to read the complete article

inPERU: La estrategia para atraer inversionistas extranjeros

The Economist takes a deeper look at China’s overseas investment

ODI-lay hee-ho – The expanding scale and scope of China’s outward direct investment

[Source] : The Economist

The remote, tribal state of Jharkhand in eastern India is the spiritual home of the country’s steel industry. It is the site of India’s first steel mill, built in 1908 with Indian money and much national pride. But a new steel plant in the same state takes a different approach. Owned by Electrosteels Steel, it has been built by Chinese contractors and fitted out with Chinese equipment, despite the government’s reluctance to award visas to Chinese workers. Now the plant is looking to expand its capacity. It is hoping China will provide the $250m investment it requires.

The hopes are not unreasonable. China is famous for attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). But a growing amount of investment is also flowing in the opposite direction. According to official figures, China’s outward direct investment (ODI) exceeded $77 billion in 2012, an increase of 12.6% on the previous year, even as inflows of FDI fell for the first time since the height of the global financial crisis.

Yet China is still far from buying up the world. It is a relative newcomer to big direct investments, and has yet to boast a large hoard of such assets. Belgium, the Netherlands and Spain all have bigger holdings. And since 2005, though China has ploughed over $50 billion into America, that sum represents less than 2% of America’s total stock of inward investment, according to the Heritage Foundation in Washington, DC.

China’s ODI would be greater if host countries were more hospitable. The Heritage Foundation reckons that over $200 billion-worth of potential deals have fallen through due to “a nasty surprise of some sort”, including political opposition and regulatory obstacles. In the West, Chinese direct investment is viewed with suspicion partly because it is still dominated by state-owned firms. These are considered a threat to competitive markets and, occasionally, to national security.

Click here to read the complete article

CSA Analysis – Latin America – China in focus

As the spread of article excerpts below will exhibit, the China – Latin America relationship and its future will be more than simple a complementary exchange of Latin American natural resources for Chinese manufactured goods. Although, as the 4th article indicates below, from China’s State Media Giant Xinhua explains, the corner stone of Sino-Latin American relations still remain within the realm of the “complementary exchange,” the two regions offer one another.  However, as CSA attempts to exhibit in this piece, the growth of Sino-Latin American ties also includes:

1/ Cheap Chinese Loans (especially to countries cut off from borrowing  raising money on international markets), which represent new sources in which Latin American countries can borrow money and raise money instead of traditional means they have been forced to reply upon since independence – Loans from European and US Banks, issuing bonds, shares in companies on international stock markets, and other financial market market vehicles where international investors allocate their money in Latin America.

2/ Beyond new markets for China’s manufactured goods, China has began to aggressively expanded into Latin America’s service sectors — Banking, Telecommunications, Logistics, and more.

3/ Defense… A rather sensitive and misunderstood area of cooperation because both China and their counter-parts in Latin America do not go into great detail to explaining very clearly what their ultimate goals for enhancing military cooperation may be.  As the author of this blog who has followed this topic for many years, I am personally of the opinion that is it all about following the money trail. An actual military alliance or very close military ties with a specific country in Latin America would be very difficult for me to imagine.  The US, various countries within Latin America, others and around the world would have serious reasons to prevent such from every being reality. Not to mention, US Presidents throughout history have periodically used the proclamation of the policy outlined in the Monroe Doctrine, signed into being US President Monroe on December 2, 1823 to justify intervention in the hemisphere.

The Monroe Doctrine in short, is a statement made to the world that further efforts by other nation states to colonize land or interfere with independent states in North or South America would be viewed as acts of aggression, requiring U.S. intervention if deemed necessary. 

U.S. presidents, including Theodore Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, Ronald Reagan have all fallen back on this proclamation to justify action in one form or another.  I don’t doubt for a second that if China’s expansion in the region, militarily speaking reached a tipping point where the a present day US President would find a means in which to justify intervention.  Perhaps again falling back on the policy outlines by the Monroe Doctrine, and adapted within context of current, present day geopolitics of the world.

Instead, as I mentioned above it’s about the money. The US, Europe, The UK, Russia, and now even Japan (which recently passed legislation allowing it to participate in the ever more lucrative market or arms trade), is where China’s primary interest lies. Just like China wants markets for its manufactured goods and services, there is also a great deal of money to made in selling the arms markets of the world, especially when you consider a region which has oddly enough in recent years began to increase military spending (see this article for more information regarding Latin America’s increase in Military Spending.

 

China Grabs Share in Latin America Wind With Cheap Loans

[Source] : BusinessWeek

By Stephan Nielsen on November 20, 2012

Chinese wind-turbine makers have broken into the South American market, the world’s fastest- growing, by offering government-backed loans at interest rates as much as 50 percent lower than local offerings.

The package deals can get buyers to choose Chinese machines over those of Western manufacturers such as Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS) of Denmark or General Electric Co., much in the way the U.S. government helps American exporters sell everything from cotton to satellites by guaranteeing loans or insurance.

…

Chinese Loan

Geassa, short for Generadora Eolica Argentina del Sur SA, is seeking a 12-year loan with a two-year grace period and an annual interest rate of 6 percent above Libor, the London interbank offered rate. The financing may be complete by June, he said. The company will use Chinese turbines and hasn’t selected a supplier.

Click here to read the complete article

 

Correlation Breakdown as Asia, Latin America Diverge: Currencies

[Source] : BusinessWeek

By Ye Xie on November 20, 2012

Asian currencies that once moved in lockstep with their Latin American peers are diverging by the most ever as China attracts investors to the region without boosting commodities, the main exports for Brazil and Chile.

The four-week correlation between the currencies of the two regions reached minus 1 last month, meaning they always move in the opposite direction, according to index data compiled by Bloomberg and JPMorgan Chase & Co. As recently as May, the correlation was plus 1 as the indexes moved in tandem. The Chinese yuan has climbed to 19-year highs amid gains in retail sales and the South Korean won reached the strongest since 2011, while Brazil’s real and the pesos in Mexico, Chile and Colombia weakened over the past two months.

“Usually when people buy China, it boosts currencies in both Latin America and Asia,” Dirk Willer, the head of Latin American local-markets strategy at Citigroup Inc. in New York, said by phone. “But this time around, given that the commodity link isn’t working, people get bought up on Asia but not on Latin America. There’s a long-term structural story.”

Click here to read the complete article

 

China Construction Bank Still Looking to Expand Into Latin America

[Source] : The Wall Street Journal

By Ryan Dube November 21, 2012, 1:37 p.m. ET

LIMA, Peru–State-run China Construction Bank Corp. (CICHY, 0939.HK, 601939.SH) is still looking to expand to Latin America and could announce plans to open an office in the region “quite soon,” a company executive said.

China’s second-biggest bank by assets is looking at acquisition targets and expansion opportunities throughout the region but especially in Brazil, said John Weinshank, head of corporate banking and trade finance at China Construction Bank’s U.S. branch.

Chinese companies are investing heavily in Latin America as they look to develop natural resources needed to fuel the Asian country’s rapid growth. One of the biggest Chinese investments in the region was the $7.1 billion deal by state-owned China Petrochemical Corp., or Sinopec, to purchase a 40% stake in Repsol YPF SA’s (REP.MC, REPYY) Brazilian unit.

In Peru, one of the world’s top mineral producers, Chinese companies are developing several copper and iron-ore projects. Together, these projects will require investments of about $11.4 billion, according to figures from Peru’s Mines and Energy Ministry. Chinese-owned projects represent about 20% of the total pipeline of investment projects in Peru’s mining sector.

“The bank is very keen to expand into the region and set up a foothold,” Mr. Weinshank said in an interview during the Latin American Banking Federation’s annual conference in Lima, which ended Tuesday. “Our customers are here and are doing business, so we have to follow our customers.”

Click here to read the complete article

 

Economies of China, Latin America complementary: bank official

[Source] : Xinhua / China People’s Daily

LIMA, Nov. 20 (Xinhua) — The economies of China and Latin American countries are highly complementary, and bilateral trade has enjoyed rapid growth, a Chinese bank official told the 46th Annual Meeting of the Latin American Federation of Banks here on Tuesday.

The expansion of China’s domestic demand has been a driving force of Latin American economies, Ma Suhong, deputy division chief of Urban Finance Research Institute at the Industrial and Commercial bank of China said on the last day of the two-day event.

Ma noted that China invested a total of 12 billion U.S. dollars in Latin America in 2011. She attributed the fast development of China-Latin America cooperation partly to China’s large domestic need and economic woes suffered by the United States and European countries.

Click here to read the complete article

 

Chinese defense minister meets with Latin American guests

[Source] : Xinhua / China People’s Daily

BEIJING, Nov. 20 (Xinhua) — Defense Minister Liang Guanglie met with delegates to the 1st China-Latin America high-level defense forum on Tuesday.

Liang hailed the increasingly close relations between China and Latin American countries in recent years, noting that the two sides have enjoyed frequent high-level visits, deepening political mutual trust, strengthening communication and cooperation, as well as effective coordination on major international affairs.

He said the forum shows that China attaches great importance to developing military relations with Latin American countries.

Click here to read the complete article

Latin America on Obama’s re-election – US views of the region – US Latin American Foreign Policy

As many news programs, news papers, bloggers, and commentators of all sorts have mentioned — Latin America (Immigration Reform and the War on Drugs to) where virtually ignored throughout the entire campaign and mentioned only one time during the Presidential Debates by Mitt Romney.

Yes there are a great many problems around the world.  Particularly in the Asia-Pacific, North Africa, and Middle East regions.  Not to mention the Eurozone economic crisis, or Hurricane Sandy, but to totally ignore 3/4 of the geographic space in the Western Hemisphere… As your author I say “Shame on you United States of America, and I implore your elected officials to begin paying more attention to your neighbors down South!”

Below CSA presents some articles from different perspectives and sources which are examining this question of why the US has so ignored the region of Latin America.

 

Reuters: Analysis: Obama faces Latin America revolt over drugs, trade

By Brian Winter
SAO PAULO | Fri Nov 9, 2012 9:55am EST
(Reuters) – President Barack Obama will face an unprecedented revolt by Latin American countries against the U.S.-led drug war during his second term and he also may struggle to pass new trade deals as the region once known as “America’s backyard” flexes its muscles like never before.

Washington’s ability to influence events in Latin America has arguably never been lower. The new reality is as much a product of the United States’ economic struggles as a wave of democracy and greater prosperity that has swept much of the region of 580 million people in the past decade or so.

It’s not that the United States is reviled now – far from it. Although a few vocally anti-U.S. leaders like Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez tend to grab the media spotlight, Obama has warm or cordial relations with Brazil, Mexico and other big countries in the region.

Most Latin American leaders were rooting, either privately or publicly, for his re-election on Tuesday.

Click here to read the complete article direct from Reuters

 

The Guatemala Times: The US elections: a view from Latin America

It has been this year’s most notable absentee: whatever happened to Latin America as a theme in the presidential campaign?

A great paradox in Tuesday’s United States elections is that of the growing significance of the Hispanic vote and the almost total absence of Latin America on the candidates’ agenda. The Hispanic vote is particularly important in swing states such as Florida and Nevada, although its presence is much wider—in California, Texas, Arizona, New York, New Mexico and Illinois, among other states.

Though the relationship between Hispanic voters and black candidates has been historically a complex one, Hispanics came through for Barack Obama in 2008, with 65% of their votes going to the candidate of “hope and change”. This time, polls indicate as much as 70% of them will vote for the incumbent president. This could make the difference between winning or losing in Nevada (where Obama is ahead, albeit by a small margin) and in Florida (which is essentially tied).

In years to come, the state to watch is Texas. According to many observers, the growing Mexican-American population there, whose most visible up-and-coming leader is Julian Castro, the charismatic mayor of San Antonio, who delivered a rousing keynote at the Democratic Convention in Charlotte last August, will mean that some point in the near future the Hispanic vote will have Texas switch from a Republican to a Democratic majority state. With California and New York already in that camp, flipping Texas may mean relegating the Republican party to a permanent minority condition in the Electoral College, confined to the Deep South and the Rocky Mountain states.

Click here to read the complete article direct from the Guatemala Times

 

World Policy Blog: The U.S. Should Stop Ignoring Latin America

By Robert Valencia

A great share of the world grew disappointed after seeing the last debate between President Barack Obama and former Governor Mitt Romney, where foreign policy rhetoric geared heavily toward Middle East and Chinese affairs. Latin America only received one brief mention by Romney. Given the current domestic gridlock in Washington D.C. and the mounting turmoil in Syria and Afghanistan, Latin America is doomed to be on the back burner once again, but a new White House administration should change this by curbing the War on Drugs and strengthening its bonds with Brazil, the second largest economy in the Americas

Latin Americans should not expect a 180-degree change in U.S. policies after the election. During the first Republican debates this year, three presidential hopefuls—Romney included—talked about Cuba and Venezuela’s possible connections with Al-Qaeda, and expressed their wish to see Fidel Castro dead. Yet no Republican candidate offered concrete steps in fostering democracy, strengthening economic bonds or improving security.

Both Obama and Romney have vowed to continue the U.S. War on Drugs. At the Summit of the Americas in Colombia, President Obama emphasized that he would not change the draconian policy, despite its dire consequences for those both north and south of Rio Grande. Likewise, Romney made clear on U.S. Hispanic TV channel Univision that he would continue the same drug policies as the current administration. No, the White House will not change its position, despite the outrageous death toll in Mexico, the new routes for smuggling narcotics onto U.S. streets, the indiscriminate incarceration of U.S. citizens of color for possessing small amounts of drugs, and the disastrous effects on Central American villages of military raids against drug kingpins.

Click here to read the complete article direct from the World Policy Blog

 

NACLA (North American Congress on Latin America): Obama’s Election and the Caribbean: What Does it Mean?

Kevin Edmonds
The Other Side of Paradise
November 8, 2012

Early Wednesday morning the Caribbean breathed a sigh of relief with the re-election of Barack Obama. A Romney victory would have ushered in a period of uncertainty, as it was expected that he would pursue a more aggressive stance towards Cuba and other left leaning governments in the region. During the debates however, it became apparent that Latin America and the Caribbean was not an area of deep concern for either candidate as the foreign policy discussion was intensely focused on matters relating to the potential conflict with Iran, security in post-Gaddafi Libya, Israel/Palestine, Syria and the trade imbalance with China.

While Caribbean Prime Ministers immediately extended their congratulations to Obama, their expressions of cautious optimism also came with calls for more meaningful engagement with the region. For example, Dominica’s Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit sent his congratulations to Obama, remarking that “The relationship between the United States and Dominica continues to be strong, based on mutual respect…we work very diligently on matters relating to regional security and we look forward to advancing those efforts. Clearly, the U.S. focus is on anti-terrorism matters and they moved away from issues relating to development in the region. But I am hoping that the new term of President Obama there would be some kind of re-direction towards developmental issues.”

Click here to read the complete article direct from NACLA

 

The Huffington Post: Latin America 2013: A Look Ahead

By Eric FarnsworthVice President, Council of the Americas

Assuming that the world does not end, according to the Mayan calendar in December, 2013 will be an important year south of the U.S. border. There are a number of issues to watch in determining the hemisphere’s direction, although most depend less on the Nov. 6 election results and more on factors that are out of White House control. Savvy observers of the region will watch the 10 “C’s” as the real policy drivers.

The first of these is Castro, as in Raul and Fidel. The U.S. election may bring a moderate tightening or loosening of U.S. restrictions on engagement with the island. The Cuban regime may or may not continue its episodic policy liberalization — Cuban perestroika — as a means to extend rather than overturn the Cuban system. But the real driver of change will be the death of one or both of the Castros. While it’s true that no one has yet won a bet predicting their death, even the Castro brothers will succumb at some point to nature. Each passing year makes that more likely. When they do, there will be a power struggle on the island, and the United States will be faced with the critical decision of how to respond. This will be a game-changer, with historic implications, sucking the oxygen out of other hemispheric policy matters at least for a time. It is the one issue above all others that has the potential to scramble hemispheric policy, putting bilateral relations on the road to normalization and removing an irritant in the broader hemispheric agenda. Or not. The truth is that nobody knows what will come after the Castros, but the U.S. response must be nuanced and appropriate so as to encourage, rather than discourage, the advent of true democracy on the island.

The second “C” is related: Chavez. Having been re-elected Oct. 7 to another presidential term, Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez nonetheless is battling cancer, which some say is quite serious; others give a more optimistic prognosis. Whatever the truth, it appears that Chavez is taking steps to position his supporters to continue the Bolivarian Revolution after he passes, most notably with the elevation of Nicolás Maduro to the vice presidency. Still, nobody in Venezuela appears to have the same charisma as Chavez, whose margin of victory in October was much less than in previous elections. Chavez won; Chavismo apparently took it on the chin. A power struggle is a strong possibility after Chavez passes away. Here, again, if Chavez dies, the United States will face an immediate challenge, working with others in the hemispheric including Brazil and Colombia to midwife a peaceful transition with a hoped for institution of the transparent social democratic model that has worked wonders in Brazil, Chile, Peru, Uruguay, and elsewhere in the Americas.

Click here to read the complete article direct from The Huffington Post

Australia finally “discovers” Latin America; time now to forge relationships

[Source] : TheConversation.edu.au

Until now, we have paid little attention to Latin America. Our mainstream media hardly mentions the region or is full of misconceptions and stereotypes.

But times are changing. Globalisation and technological change have had a tremendous impact on the relations between the Asia-Pacific region and Latin America, a trend gradually engulfing Australia too.

Increasing numbers of Australians are discovering Latin America offers sustained growth and opportunities in business, political, social and cultural sectors.

Meanwhile Latin Americans are studying, working or settling in Australia in greater numbers. The 2011 census figures shows more than 100,000 first generation Latin Americans now call Australia home.

Latin America is also benefitting greatly from the changing global economic order, with Asia – and particularly China – fast replacing the United States in trade with the region. By 2009, China already surpassed the United States as Brazil’s largest trading partner.

Click here to read the complete article

Ojito, ojito con China

 

[Source] : Semanaeconomica.pe

09 Sep, 2012 07:132 comentarios

Uno tras otro, los indicadores de la economía china han venido confirmando un proceso marcado de desaceleración no anticipado por los mercados, pues han estado acostumbrados a resultados siempre superiores a los pronosticados. Si, como anticipan las principales proyecciones del consenso de economía, el crecimiento 2012 se ubicará cerca al 7,5%, estaríamos hablando del nivel record de baja expansión de las últimas dos décadas.

Los datos de producción industrial se han desmoronado, reflejando las debilidades de los sectores exportadores, la demanda interna y externa. La prensa china recoge cada vez con mayor frecuencia los graves problemas que enfrentan determinadas ramas líderes de la actividad. Por ejemplo, ya es inocultable la crisis del sector acerero, antes sostén del dinamismo productivo chino, apoyando el desarrollo de infraestructuras. De hecho, durante el plan de estímulo diseñado por el gobierno chino en el 2008, que alcanzó los 600 mil millones de dólares, una proporción importante fue entregada a esta industria, que ahora se encuentra sobre endeudada, en un contexto donde la demanda, y los precios se han desplomado, y donde ha salido a relucir que un porcentaje de los recursos captados, derivaron en otras inversiones de alto riesgo, que no era el centro del plan de estímulo, ni de estas empresas. El sector financiero del gigante asiático, ha sentido el golpe directamente en sus cuentas, y hay actualmente presiones fuertes por parte de las autoridades para ajustar los préstamos en este sector, con lo que la crisis ahí se ahondará más.

Otra de las ramas que también recoge el efecto de la crisis es el rubro exportador de juguetes, que concentra una masa importante de la fuerza laboral. Esta se ha visto impactada por una fuerte reducción de la demanda externa de Europa y Estados Unidos, que se pronostica en casi 30%, para este año. Pero no todo el efecto de esta caída responde sólo a la crisis que enfrentan los países desarrollados, sino también a factores de costos percibido por sus clientes externos, concentrado sobre todo en los ya no tan bajos costos de la mano de obra china. Este incremento del salario , ha llevado a que las órdenes de compra se estén trasladando a otros países en el sudeste asiático o a Bangladesh.

Haga clic aquí para leer el artículo completo