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China-Peru FTA goes into force this February

China’s second FTA with a Latin American nation will become active this February 2010. A mile stone for both country’s, the agreement seeks to boost bilateral trade to new levels.

Here are the basic facts and forecasts, provided via this article from Nasdaq.com. For the record, author Sophie Kevany, is a superb journalist who is actually based in Peru. This article does not do justice to her credo of true investigative journalism I have read in the past, but no less is always a good source for all that is Peruvian finance.

Check out her other articles on the WSJ, Decanter (yes she even writes about Peruvian wines and spirits), and well, just google her name and you’ll be greeted with a swarm of informative pieces about Peru and the greater South American region.

LIMA -(Dow Jones)- Peru’s free trade agreement with China is set to come into force early February, and it is expected to boost total trade values to an estimated $8 billion in its first year.

The treaty was ratified earlier this month by a supreme government decree, meaning Peru’s congress will not vote on it, state newspaper El Peruano said Wednesday.

The treaty excludes so called “sensitive products” such as textiles, shoes and clothing, Peru’s Vice Minister for Trade and Tourism, Eduardo Ferreyros, told El Peruano.

Trade between the two countries is expected to total about $5.5 billion in 2009. Of that, exports to China from Peru are expected to reach $3 billion, Ferreyros told state news agency Andina, while imports from China should total about $2.5 billion.

-By Sophie Kevany, Dow Jones Newswires; 51-198-903-8043; sophie.kevany@ dowjones.com

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Commodity Markets; weekly roundup

Rogers International Commodity Index

Rogers International Commodity Index (Oct 26-30, 2009)

(Oct 26-30, 2009)

VALUE as of 10/30/09

Rogers Internatioanl Commodity Index

21.7

Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index

131.86

METALS

Copper (USD/lb)

2.92

Zinc (USD/lb)

0.97

Aluminum (USD/lb)

0.83

Lead (USD/lb)

1.03

Nickel (USD/lb)

8.22

Gold (USD/oz)

1045.7

Silver (USD/oz)

16.34

Platinum (USD/oz)

1329.00

Palladium (USD/oz)

325.00

ENERGY

Crude Oil (USD/bbl)

76.99

Natural Gas (USD/MMBtu)

5.012

AGRICULTURE

Corn (USD/bu)

366

Rice (USD/cwt)

14.36

Soybeans (USD/bu)

978

Wheat (USD/bu) *CBT

494

Live Hog (USD/lb)

56.7

Live Cattle (USD/lb)

85.68

*metals commodity prices obtained via Kitco Metals
*energy commodity prices obtained via Yahoo Finance
*agriculture commodity prices obtained via Yahoo Finance
*wheat futures via Bloomberg

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Newswire: Asia-Pacific

international.gc.ca

international.gc.ca

U.S.’s Treasury’s Geithner to attend Singapore APEC meetingReuters

WASHINGTON, Oct 23 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner travels to Singapore to attend a meeting of finance ministers who are members of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum for one day next month.

China Minmetals eyes gold mines in Australia, CanadaReuters

* Company to start construction at Peru copper mine next yr

* Production at Peru mine scheduled to begin in 2012 (Adds background, bylines)

By Rujun Shen and Joseph Chaney

TIANJIN, Oct 22 (Reuters) – Chinese state-owned metals trader China Minmetals Corp. [CHMIN.UL] is looking to buy gold mines in Australia and Canada, a senior executive said on Thursday.

Huang Dongmei, deputy general manager of China Minmetals Exploration and Development Ltd, made the remarks at an industry forum in China’s port city of Tianjin.

Separately, a Minmetals executive at the China Mining conference here said on Wednesday that the company would launch construction at its Galeno copper mine in Peru next year, with production due to start in 2012. [ID:nPEK200915]

Ecuador Seeks Cash to End Three-Year Oil Output Drop (Update1)Bloomberg

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) — Ecuador, the smallest member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is seeking to attract investment from state-run companies in Latin America, Russia and China to reverse a three-year drop in crude output.

Ecuador is forging alliances to explore and produce crude as lower investment by privately-owned companies causes production to drop as much as 6.6 percent this year, Julio Gonzalez, undersecretary of hydrocarbons policy at the Ministry of Non-Renewable Natural Resources, said in an interview.

“The government’s priority is to do this with state companies,” Gonzalez said yesterday at the ministry in Quito.

Kevin Rudd’s vision for Asia-Pacific community evolvesThe Australian

KEVIN Rudd’s concept of an Asia-Pacific community by 2020 has been canvassed at the weekend’s East Asia summit in Thailand together with a rival vision from new Japanese leader Yukio Hatoyama.

East Asian leaders meeting in Hua Hin yesterday discussed the broad regional architecture, with the Prime Minister promoting his plan both at the formal leaders’ meeting and in a series on bilateral discussions.

“What I detect across the region is an openness to a discussion about how we evolve our regional architecture into the future,” Mr Rudd said yesterday.

“It’s important that we are in a conscious discussion and a conscious process to evolve options for regional institutions in the future rather than just sitting back and waiting for big problems to emerge.”

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Former President of Peru, Alejandro Toledo criticizes FTA with China

AgenciaPeru.tv — Spanish news bite of former President Alejandro Toledo of Peru.

Toledo comments on Peru’s FTA with China

Former President Alejandro Toledo criticized the free trade agreement that Peru and China signed in April this year. Toledo was at the Club de la Banca in San Isidro, Lima this afternoon after talks with a group of businessmen on the financial crisis and opportunities for Peruvians.

Remember, Toledo was instrumental in rebuilding Peru’s market economy and in promoting the signing of the Free Trade Agreement between the United States and Peru. It is curious as to why a man who was once labeled a lap dog of US policy in promoting free trade and free market economics is now expressing concern about Peru’s FTA with China.

If you can understand Spanish I suggest watching this short video to get his full commentary. If not, the general gist of his message is that Peru simply needs to be careful and help empower Peru’s micro-enterprises with the skills necessary to compete Chinese labor and cheap manufacturing.

Second, in the midst of this crisis, Peru can not forget the pains and ills of the everyday Peruvian on the street. Although the agreement with China is something which can potentially bring long term investment and growth in trade, it is important to not forget about the Peruvians which will be affected (economically) by the growth in exchange with China.

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China Minmetals to begin production in Peruvian copper mine by 2012

The China Daily reported yesterday,  China’s Minmetals Corp., has announced plans to begin construction of the Galeno copper mine in Peru next year and have the mine operational by 2012.

The mine is jointly owned by China Minmetals and Jiangxi Copper (0358: HK). early last year, is believed to have 20 years of mine life and an annual production estimate of 144,000 tonnes concentrate.

As the chart below exhibits, Jiangxi Copper seems to be riding the upswing in copper markets.  Year to date (YTD), Jiangxi’s shares (traded in Hong Kong) have jumped from around 3 HKD to about 20 HKD as of its close today.

YTD Performance of Jiangxi Copper Co.  [0358.hk]
YTD performance of Jiangxi Copper Co. [0358.hk]

According to the the assistant president of China Minmetals, Zhang Shoulian “The company is increasingly looking to the South American markets for mine resources investment. Copper was its main focus, apart from other metals like iron, zinc, nickel and lead.”

Click here to read a more on this topic from a related article at chinamining.org.

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New potential strikes looming for Peru’s mining industry

Shougang is not the only miner down in Peru for which trouble is brewing. Peru’s national federation of mine workers said on Friday (yesterday), it is planning to hold walkouts across the entire sector next week.

libcom.org

libcom.org

“The position of the workers is to go on strike on Monday starting at 9 a.m. (1400 GMT) and leave the mines,” Luis Castillo, the federation’s director, told Reuters.

Reuters reports some unions have agreed to stay on the job, but considering that Peru is the largest producer of silver in the world, #2 of zinc, #3 of copper, #4 of lead, and #6 in gold—such a walk out does have the potential ripple over into global spot prices for the above mentioned metals.

When miners held a similar strike in mid-2008 and the strike helped push copper prices toward a record high—although this was at the peak of bull markets, the market effect is no less noted. The underlying point; markets are watching and investors pay attention to these kinds of things.

Company’s which will be affected include, Volcan (VOL_pb.LM), Newmont (NEM), Freeport-McMoRan’s (FXN), Xstrata’s (XTA.L), Buenaventura (BVN), Southern Copper (PCU) and BHP Billiton (BHP).

Click here to access a more details story on this topic from Reuters.

As always, CSA will keep you up to date with relevant developments as they unfold.

~ Benito

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Chile, Copper and BHP Billiton

Newswire / CSA Commentary –

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Chile copper output rises 7.8%

Copper output in Chile, the world’s biggest producer, rose 7.8% in August from a year earlier after state-owned Codelco and BHP Billiton boosted production, the government said.

Output increased to 459,823t from 426,689t a year earlier, the country’s national statistics agency said in a statement distributed in Santiago today.

Click here to access the complete article

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Likewise, as this next article exhibits, BHP’s full year profit forecast may be substantially larger than previously thought…

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BHPB profit forecast raised 22% on copper, RBS says

BHPB’s profit after tax may be US$10.68 billion in the year ending June 30, analysts led by Warren Edney said in a report dated yesterday. Profit may be US$14.9 billion in the year ending June 30, 2011, up 11% on an earlier forecast, he said.

Click here to access the complete article

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However, we’ll see how this all plays out when BHP’s workers meet next week to vote a potential strike

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BHPB Chile copper workers to vote on strike next week


BHP Billiton workers at the Spence copper mine in Chile will vote whether to go on strike next week after rejecting the company’s latest pay offer, a union official said…

Workers may start a strike on October 3 for an indefinite period if they fail to get more of a pay increase, Mr Ramirez said yesterday…

Click here to access the complete article

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All while yet another big player in the copper sector ups their 2010 forecast of avg copper prices

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Chile’s Sonami sees 2010 avg copper price $2.50/lb

Chile’s second biggest mining association, Sonami, expects the average price of copper to rise by up to 19 percent next year, which might encourage the continuation of more copper projects in the South American nation, its president told Reuters on Monday.

The average copper price may rise to $2.50 per lb in 2010 from an average of $2.10 to $2.30 this year, Sonami’s Alfredo Ovalle said in an interview at a forum in Santiago.

Click here to access the complete article

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RBS forecasts copper prices may hit a new record by 2013

Copper is likely to reach a new high by 2013 as the market moves into a deficit and further tightens in the coming years, RBS Global Banking & Markets said on Thursday.

“Copper remains our most favoured base metal,” RBS said in a research note, in which it forecast an average cash copper price of $9,000 a tonne by 2013, a rise of more than 46% from the current cash MCU0 price on the London Metal Exchange. Benchmark three-month copper price MCU3 hit a record high of $8,940 a tonne in July 2008 and traded at $6,115 a tonne on Thursday.

“Copper’s demand prospects are not among the best but we believe copper producers will have the most difficulty in keeping up with growing demand. We forecast an underlying market deficit by 2011 and that by 2013 it will be fast approaching pre-recession tightness,” the bank said.

Copper, used extensively in construction, has doubled in price since the beginning of the year on the back of restocking from China, the world’s top consumer of the metal and on expectations of a recovery in the global growth.

Click here to access the full article from Mineweb

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Newswire: China and Mongolia

1) Wen Signals Unprecedented Spending Will Drive Chinese Rebound – Bloomberg

China’s Premier Wen Jiabao signaled he will maintain unprecedented
government spending to drive a recovery from the slowest expansion in
almost a decade.

“China’s economic rebound is unstable, unbalanced and not yet solid,”
Wen said yesterday in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Dalian,
a city in northeastern China. “We cannot and will not change the
direction of our policies when the conditions aren’t appropriate.”

To read the full article please visit -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aF3.IaUQ.JEo

2) Standard Bank Borrows $1 Billion From Chinese Banks

Standard Bank Group Ltd., Africa’s largest lender, said the $1 billion
loan facility it signed with four Chinese banks will be mainly used
for clients developing projects on the continent.

“The money will be used mainly to support our Africa business, for
clients wanting to do business in Africa and this would include
Chinese clients,” said Chief Executive Officer Jacko Maree, after
signing the five-year facility in Macau. It will be used mainly to
fund projects, he added.

To read the full article please visit -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=aLPkKY95BnaY

3) Mongolia Fund to Manage $30 Billion Mining Jackpot

The Mongolian government will set up a sovereign wealth fund using
mining royalties and tax revenue, and distribute part of the income to
citizens to alleviate poverty, said Finance Minister Sangajav
Bayartsogt.

The fund, to be run by professional managers from 2013, will disburse
part of its annual income to every Mongolian in cash or non-cash
securities to let them own stakes in the country’s mining wealth,
Bayartsogt said. Initial capital will be drawn from Ivanhoe Mines
Ltd.’s $4 billion Oyu Tolgoi copper- gold mine project, estimated to
generate $30 billion in tax revenue over 50 years, he said.

“We’re drafting the idea to implement the proposal, and we’re
studying examples like the Alaskan Permanent Fund,” Bayartsogt said in
a Sept. 9 interview in the capital Ulaanbaatar, declining to specify
the size of the proposed fund.

To read the full article please visit -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aWm8u8kb0R5E


Sent from my mobile device

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Abundant mineral wealth in china

Two articles grabbed my attention from Chinamining.org this morning. They both relate to the fact China’s ethnic regions also happen to be home to a great proportion of the countries commodity and energy wealth.

You can click on the titles of each respective article to access the stories in full from Chinamining.org.

–> Tibet has copper ore reserves of 30 mln t, half of China’s total

Southwest China’s Tibet Autonomous Region has geological copper ore reserves of more than 30 million tons, accounting for over a half of the country’s total, according to the region’s geological prospecting bureau.

The bureau director said that Tibet is the largest region in China by its copper resources reserves. By 2008, 329 copper ore deposits had been found in the region, including 11 large deposits and six mid-size ones. Its Qulong copper ore mine, the largest one in Asia, is estimated to possess copper reserves of more than 10 million tons.

Tibet – Potala Palace
[Photo I personally took
during a trip I made to
the region in December 2006,
Bennett A. Reiss]

–> 1st Kunming Mining & Cooperation Forum (Sept 2-4, 2009)

Entering the 21st century, the global mining industry is writing a new chapter. It is an era of resource economy. Mining market becomes more open and capitalized. Mineral exploring as well as financing becomes more diversified.

Yunnan is rich in natural resources, known as “the Kingdom of non-ferrous metals”. More than 150 kinds of minerals have been proved there, accounting for 92.6% of Chinese total. Among the proved 92 minerals, 9 of them have the largest reserves in China and 21 of them are listed within top three. Mining as one of the five pillar industries in Yunnan plays an important role in the development of the local economy.


Earlier this summer another ethnic region grabbed world headlines. Does the region of Xinjiang ring any bells? Xinjiang is home to a large number of China’s ethnic Muslims, is culturally quite similar to other republics in central Asia and is often referred to as East Turkestan. Xinjiang is also on track to become China’s most important oil and gas producing region.

This article, “Xinjiang’s oil and gas equivalent ranks first in China” is from little over a year ago (July 2008), asserts that Xinjiang has already passed Daqing (China’s other oil producing region) as the number region in oil and gas output.

As one hand seizes development, the other taps into the potential to allow Xinjiang’s oil output to soar. The latest statistics show that Xinjiang’s annual oil and gas equivalent output has already exceeded that in Daqing and ranks the first in the country.

The third national resources evaluation shows that: Xinjiang’s total oil and natural gas resource reserves exceeded 30 billion tons. Although it is rich in resources, Xinjiang still requires development and a reduction in consumption. Recently, Xinjiang has been producing 75,000 tons of crude oil daily, occupying 14.4 percent of the country’s daily crude oil output. In 2007, Xinjiang’s oil and gas equivalent reached 44.94 million tons, and ranked at the top.

In all likelihood, the development of commodity sectors in these regions will be controlled by Beijing…not locals. What industries can these regions develop as to diversify their economic development from commodity sector led growth?

Yunnan and Tibet have great potential for becoming tourist meccas in China. Yunnan, the less politically sensitive of the two, has already emerged as one of China’s most popular tourist destinations.

Furthermore, Yunnan’s strategic location in SE Asia put it in a good place to be at the center of the future growth of trade and exchange between China and the countries of Vietnam, Myanmar and Laos.

[Map courtesy of leafgovso.co.uk]

Tibetan tourism is growing as well, but remains inhibited by the sporadic changing of restrictions and the need to acquire a special internal visa or permission to visit.

When analyzing this situation from a the perspective of the people in the Chinese government determining domestic policy, China can not and will not simply let three of its most resource rich regions control the development their natural resource industries.

Sad as it may be for some members of the minority groups in these regions, one thing is sure–Xinjiang, Tibet and Yunnan are all going to remain integral pieces of China for a long time and be subject to increased inflows of ethnic Han Chinese seeking economic opportunities.

Let me clearly state, the opinions expressed in this analysis not reflect how I the author, (Bennett A. Reiss) feel on a personal level. Allow me to try to put things into perspective with two analogies which I feel help explain the Chinese point of view.

Canada is full of resources from top to bottom. I am by no means an expert, but I highly doubt the Eskimo and Native American populations have much say about development of Canadian mining and energy companies in their ancestral territories.

Likewise, a more mainstream analogy might be the US in Iraq. To the “logic” driven Chinese bureaucrat, China is far more justified in their domestic policy towards these resource rich regions than the United States is in Iraq. On the surface the US is subjugating a foreign population in a country half way across the globe from its own territory. China in its own official opinion is not subjecting anyone, and to further add to the Chinese argument, these regions have been a part of China for centuries if not thousands of years.

Even if your feelings on the war in Iraq produce other rationalizations for the US invasion (outside of oil), try to justify this to a country with over 1.4 billion people to feed and improve the lives of.

I welcome debate in this area to any readers who would like to discuss this topic further.

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