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Travel to any country in Latin America and you will see the visible hand of China at work: a computer manufacturing plant in Mexico, a copper mine in Peru, a football stadium in Costa Rica. In the year 2007, the thought of China in Latin America would have appeared, at best, improbable. But in a three-year stretch, China signed free trade agreements with Chile, Peru and Costa Rica, inked billions of dollars worth of deals in oil and mining projects throughout the region, and supplanted the US as Brazil’s biggest trading partner. Once almost unseen in Latin America, China’s bilateral trade has risen from $12bn in 2000 to well over $150bn today.

Given the importance of its new Asian friend, Latin Americans are rolling out the red carpets to Chinese business delegations and jumping on planes not only to Beijing but also to Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Tianjin.

Rationale Behind Chinese Investments in Latin America [...]

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The aim is to expand the company’s Tintaya Copper mine which is roughly 10km away, adding 60,000 tons of copper to annual production (a 60% increase).

Read more about this development in this article published by The Mining Journal

Here are the basic facts and forecasts, provided via this article from Nasdaq.com. For the record, author Sophie Kevany, is a superb journalist who is actually based in Peru. This article does not do justice to her credo of true investigative journalism I have read in the past, but no less is always a good source for all that is Peruvian finance.

Check out her other articles on the WSJ, Decanter (yes she even writes about Peruvian wines and spirits), and well, just google her name and you’ll be greeted with a swarm of informative pieces about Peru and the greater South American region.

LIMA -(Dow Jones)- Peru’s free trade agreement with China is set to come into force early February, and it is expected to boost total trade values to an estimated $8 billion in its first year.

The treaty was ratified earlier this month by a supreme government decree, meaning Peru’s congress will not vote on it, state newspaper El Peruano said Wednesday.

The treaty excludes so called “sensitive products” such as textiles, shoes and clothing, Peru’s Vice Minister for Trade and Tourism, Eduardo Ferreyros, told El Peruano.

Trade between the two countries is expected to total about $5.5 billion in 2009. Of that, exports to China from Peru are expected to reach $3 billion, Ferreyros told state news agency Andina, while imports from China should total about $2.5 billion.

-By Sophie Kevany, Dow Jones Newswires; 51-198-903-8043; sophie.kevany@ dowjones.com

(Oct 26-30, 2009)

*metals commodity prices obtained via Kitco Metals
*energy commodity prices obtained via Yahoo Finance
*agriculture commodity prices obtained via Yahoo Finance
*wheat futures via Bloomberg

international.gc.ca

U.S.’s Treasury’s Geithner to attend Singapore APEC meeting – Reuters

WASHINGTON, Oct 23 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner travels to Singapore to attend a meeting of finance ministers who are members of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum for one day next month.

China Minmetals eyes gold mines in Australia, Canada – Reuters

* Company to start construction at Peru copper mine next yr

* Production at Peru mine scheduled to begin in 2012 (Adds background, bylines)

By Rujun Shen and Joseph Chaney

TIANJIN, Oct 22 (Reuters) – Chinese state-owned metals trader China Minmetals Corp. [CHMIN.UL] is looking to buy gold mines in Australia and Canada, a senior executive said on Thursday.

Huang Dongmei, deputy general manager of China Minmetals Exploration and Development Ltd, made the remarks at an industry forum in China’s port city of Tianjin.

Separately, a Minmetals executive at the China Mining conference here said on Wednesday that the company would launch construction at its Galeno copper mine in Peru next year, with production due to start in 2012. [ID:nPEK200915]

Ecuador Seeks Cash to End Three-Year Oil Output Drop (Update1) – Bloomberg

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) — Ecuador, the smallest member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is seeking to attract investment from state-run companies in Latin America, Russia and China to reverse a three-year drop in crude output.

Ecuador is forging alliances to explore and produce crude as lower investment by privately-owned companies causes production to drop as much as 6.6 percent this year, Julio Gonzalez, undersecretary of hydrocarbons policy at the Ministry of Non-Renewable Natural Resources, said in an interview.

“The government’s priority is to do this with state companies,” Gonzalez said yesterday at the ministry in Quito.

Kevin Rudd’s vision for Asia-Pacific community evolves – The Australian

KEVIN Rudd’s concept of an Asia-Pacific community by 2020 has been canvassed at the weekend’s East Asia summit in Thailand together with a rival vision from new Japanese leader Yukio Hatoyama.

East Asian leaders meeting in Hua Hin yesterday discussed the broad regional architecture, with the Prime Minister promoting his plan both at the formal leaders’ meeting and in a series on bilateral discussions.

“What I detect across the region is an openness to a discussion about how we evolve our regional architecture into the future,” Mr Rudd said yesterday.

“It’s important that we are in a conscious discussion and a conscious process to evolve options for regional institutions in the future rather than just sitting back and waiting for big problems to emerge.”

Toledo comments on Peru’s FTA with China

Former President Alejandro Toledo criticized the free trade agreement that Peru and China signed in April this year. Toledo was at the Club de la Banca in San Isidro, Lima this afternoon after talks with a group of businessmen on the financial crisis and opportunities for Peruvians.

Remember, Toledo was instrumental in rebuilding Peru’s market economy and in promoting the signing of the Free Trade Agreement between the United States and Peru. It is curious as to why a man who was once labeled a lap dog of US policy in promoting free trade and free market economics is now expressing concern about Peru’s FTA with China.

If you can understand Spanish I suggest watching this short video to get his full commentary. If not, the general gist of his message is that Peru simply needs to be careful and help empower Peru’s micro-enterprises with the skills necessary to compete Chinese labor and cheap manufacturing.

Second, in the midst of this crisis, Peru can not forget the pains and ills of the everyday Peruvian on the street. Although the agreement with China is something which can potentially bring long term investment and growth in trade, it is important to not forget about the Peruvians which will be affected (economically) by the growth in exchange with China.

The mine is jointly owned by China Minmetals and Jiangxi Copper (0358: HK). early last year, is believed to have 20 years of mine life and an annual production estimate of 144,000 tonnes concentrate.

As the chart below exhibits, Jiangxi Copper seems to be riding the upswing in copper markets.  Year to date (YTD), Jiangxi’s shares (traded in Hong Kong) have jumped from around 3 HKD to about 20 HKD as of its close today.

According to the the assistant president of China Minmetals, Zhang Shoulian “The company is increasingly looking to the South American markets for mine resources investment. Copper was its main focus, apart from other metals like iron, zinc, nickel and lead.”

Click here to read a more on this topic from a related article at chinamining.org.

libcom.org

“The position of the workers is to go on strike on Monday starting at 9 a.m. (1400 GMT) and leave the mines,” Luis Castillo, the federation’s director, told Reuters.

Reuters reports some unions have agreed to stay on the job, but considering that Peru is the largest producer of silver in the world, #2 of zinc, #3 of copper, #4 of lead, and #6 in gold—such a walk out does have the potential ripple over into global spot prices for the above mentioned metals.

When miners held a similar strike in mid-2008 and the strike helped push copper prices toward a record high—although this was at the peak of bull markets, the market effect is no less noted. The underlying point; markets are watching and investors pay attention to these kinds of things.

Company’s which will be affected include, Volcan (VOL_pb.LM), Newmont (NEM), Freeport-McMoRan’s (FXN), Xstrata’s (XTA.L), Buenaventura (BVN), Southern Copper (PCU) and BHP Billiton (BHP).

Click here to access a more details story on this topic from Reuters.

As always, CSA will keep you up to date with relevant developments as they unfold.

~ Benito

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Chile copper output rises 7.8%

Copper output in Chile, the world’s biggest producer, rose 7.8% in August from a year earlier after state-owned Codelco and BHP Billiton boosted production, the government said.

Output increased to 459,823t from 426,689t a year earlier, the country’s national statistics agency said in a statement distributed in Santiago today.

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Likewise, as this next article exhibits, BHP’s full year profit forecast may be substantially larger than previously thought…

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BHPB profit forecast raised 22% on copper, RBS says

BHPB’s profit after tax may be US$10.68 billion in the year ending June 30, analysts led by Warren Edney said in a report dated yesterday. Profit may be US$14.9 billion in the year ending June 30, 2011, up 11% on an earlier forecast, he said.

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However, we’ll see how this all plays out when BHP’s workers meet next week to vote a potential strike

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BHPB Chile copper workers to vote on strike next week

BHP Billiton workers at the Spence copper mine in Chile will vote whether to go on strike next week after rejecting the company’s latest pay offer, a union official said…

Workers may start a strike on October 3 for an indefinite period if they fail to get more of a pay increase, Mr Ramirez said yesterday…

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All while yet another big player in the copper sector ups their 2010 forecast of avg copper prices

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Chile’s Sonami sees 2010 avg copper price $2.50/lb

Chile’s second biggest mining association, Sonami, expects the average price of copper to rise by up to 19 percent next year, which might encourage the continuation of more copper projects in the South American nation, its president told Reuters on Monday.

The average copper price may rise to $2.50 per lb in 2010 from an average of $2.10 to $2.30 this year, Sonami’s Alfredo Ovalle said in an interview at a forum in Santiago.

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“Copper remains our most favoured base metal,” RBS said in a research note, in which it forecast an average cash copper price of $9,000 a tonne by 2013, a rise of more than 46% from the current cash MCU0 price on the London Metal Exchange. Benchmark three-month copper price MCU3 hit a record high of $8,940 a tonne in July 2008 and traded at $6,115 a tonne on Thursday.

“Copper’s demand prospects are not among the best but we believe copper producers will have the most difficulty in keeping up with growing demand. We forecast an underlying market deficit by 2011 and that by 2013 it will be fast approaching pre-recession tightness,” the bank said.

Copper, used extensively in construction, has doubled in price since the beginning of the year on the back of restocking from China, the world’s top consumer of the metal and on expectations of a recovery in the global growth.

…

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