Airtime: Sun. Nov. 1 2009 | 6:31 PM ET – CNBC
Despite strong manufacturing data out of China, Jim Walker, founder and CEO of Asianomics, says there is little demand for the output produced. He gives his take on the Chinese economy, with CNBC’s Martin Soong & guest host Mark Kiesel of PIMCO.
China Nurtures Futures Markets in Bid to Sway Commodity Prices - WSJ
ZHENGZHOU, China — Chinese leaders are concerned that their nation’s enormous economic expansion is becoming an excuse for foreign suppliers to inflate commodity costs. So, they hope to use their three futures exchanges to fight back.
“It is true we have a long-term goal of increasing our influence in terms of pricing, but to do that we have to create conditions and do it step by step,” Jiang Yang, chief futures-industry policy maker and assistant chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said in an interview. “But as the Westerners say: ‘Rome was not built in a day.’
But Beijing believes hosting big futures markets will enhance the country’s economic security by essentially advertising what the world’s biggest customer for some commodities considers a fair price. For the rest of the world, the exchanges could mean less guesswork about China’s buying habits, possibly reducing volatility in the global market.
Silver Lining: Jim Rogers Talks Up Commodities – Time Magazine
Jim Rogers’ daughters may not have been born with silver spoons in their mouths, but they’ve got them now. Not silver spoons, exactly, but silver bullion. “My little girls don’t own stocks — they own commodities,” he says, “and that’s why they’ll be able to take care of me in retirement.”
Rogers sees three big secular trends now, and he’s acting on all of them. First, America’s role as the dominant economic power is declining, so why own American stocks? (He doesn’t.) Second, China is emerging, and even though it may have crises from time to time, it is a good place to invest. (He does.) Third — and this is the biggie — emerging nations including China are greatly increasing the future demand for commodities such as oil. (He’s in with both feet.)
“Thirty years ago, 3 billion people were not even participating in the world economy, and now they are trying to live like we do,” he notes. That emerging megaforce, says Rogers, will put a supertight squeeze on commodity prices across the board, from beef to bullion.
Oil Climbs Above $73, Nat. Gas Rallies as Equities Fly High – Rigzone
Jumping toward $74 a barrel on an American holiday, crude oil rallied more than $1 from last week’s closing price, bolstered by a weaker dollar and a rise in the equities market. Also gaining today, natural gas closed 12 cents below $5 as the energy commodity continues to strengthen despite bearish fundamentals.
After rallying to an intra-day high of $73.84, the price of crude oil settled slightly lower to $73.27 on the NYMEX Monday, a gain of $1.50 from Friday’s close. Additionally, the US dollar eased against a basket of foreign currencies, helping to spur a rally in today’s commodity prices.
China Iron Ore Imports Exceed Real Demand, CISA Says – Bloomberg via Chinamining.org
Iron ore imports by China, the world’s largest buyer, have exceeded real demand by 50 million metric tons this year, the country’s steel association said.
China’s iron ore imports surged to a record this year, hurting the group’s bid to negotiate a contract price cut bigger than the 33 percent offered by Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. The nation is looking at cutting the number of licensed importers, industry minister Li Yizhong reiterated today.
China stops expansion projects in steel industry for three years – Xinhua
China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) Thursday announced a three-year moratorium on approvals of new expansion-related proposals in the iron and steel industry, as the government pledges to eliminate outdated capacity.
CISA stance hurts small steel mills – China Daily
China’s top negotiators in the bitter and protracted row over the price of iron ore seem destined never to agree – risking a loss of face that will raise questions about whether they are up to the job and who it is they are actually representing.
Their apparent refusal to compromise is damaging the competitiveness of smaller domestic steel mills, forcing them to buy from their larger counterparts, say analysts. The bigger firms have been content to pay whatever the spot price is for ore and pass on the premiums.
CNPC to speed up oil assets buy plan - Xiao Wan of eChinaCities
China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), the country’s largest oil and gas producer, will speed up overseas acquisitions in regions such as Africa and South America this year, in a bid to boost China’s quest for energy security.
Coal mines to merge in new plan – China Daily
A large-scale restructuring of the coal industry in China’s major coal-producing province of Shanxi, starting at the end of this month, will reduce accidents and improve efficiency by shutting down small coal mines, officials said.
“The restructuring this time is the largest after years of adjusting the coal industry’s structure,” Miao Huanli, planning section director of Shanxi provincial coal bureau, said yesterday.
Commodity Rally May Falter on Supply, Speculators
June 29 (Bloomberg) — Commodities, heading for the first quarterly advance in a year, may struggle to repeat their gains in the next three months as supply expands and speculators sell.
Nickel may average 29 percent less in the third quarter than now, crude oil 16 percent, copper 14 percent and gasoline 10 percent, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Hedge funds and speculators cut their bets on higher prices by 23 percent in the two weeks ended June 23, the first back-to-back drop since March, based on an index using U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. The World Bank said June 22 the global recession will be deeper than it expected three months ago.
“Commodities have gotten a little ahead of themselves,” said Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps oversee $30 billion at Morgan Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama. “As long as there’s uncertainty about growth, that’s going to be headwind commodities won’t be able to overcome.”
Commodities rose 14 percent this quarter, led by nickel, oil and sugar, after three consecutive declines, according to the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials. This year’s 57 percent advance in oil costs, combined with widening budget deficits, may cause another global slump, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economics professor who predicted the financial crisis.
Click here to access the full article from Bloomberg
Regulate with a Big Stick, Not a Fly Swatter
China’s securities regulators should focus on sound oversight and tough discipline to protect, not merely stabilize, the market.
Three cases that came to light during the second week of May drew attention to regulatory efficiency and tight enforcement in the securities market. A former president of China Galaxy Securities, Xiao Shiqing, was arrested May 13. That same day, Sinolink Securities (SSE: 600109) announced that its chairman, Lei Bo, had been placed under investigation. And a day later, Rongtong Fund Management booted fund manager Zhang Ye for suspected involvement in so-called “rat trading.”
On the surface, these cases seem unrelated. Each involves a different context. But deep down, each is connected to how regulatory agencies shoulder their responsibilities. And now, once again, concerns have been raised about regulatory oversight and regulatory capture.
Securities legislation protects investors
Small investors’ interests are high on the agenda in the revision of China’s Securities’ Law, which will be deliberated by China’s legislature later this year.
But the country’s legal system still needs improvement to enable investors to make full use of the Securities Law, including taking steps like “collective action” against listed companies that cheat, said a senior lawmaker.
China Spends 61.2% of 2009 Investment Budget
The central government has already spent 61.2 percent of its 2009 investment budget as it pours funds into infrastructure, education and health care, the official Xinhua News Agency reported on May 27.
China’s Manufacturing Expands for Third Month, Adding to Signs of Recovery
China’s manufacturing expanded for a third month, adding to evidence that the world’s third-largest economy is recovering from its deepest slump in almost a decade.
Geithner to Tell China No One More Concerned About U.S. Deficit Than Obama
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner arrived in Beijing with a pledge that the Obama administration will control its borrowing as he sought to reassure China its holdings of U.S. government debt are safe.
China’s Steel Association Rejects Iron Ore Prices Reached by Rio, Nippon
The China Iron & Steel Association rejected an agreement on ore prices reached between Rio Tinto Plc and Nippon Steel Corp., according to a statement on the group’s Web site. The price reached between Rio and Nippon Steel doesn’t reflect changes in the global market and would result in losses for Chinese steelmakers, the group said.
Treasuries `Only Game in Town’ as China Boosts Holdings While Dollar Falls
For all the hand-wringing over the dollar’s slide, the expanding U.S. deficit and the nation’s AAA credit rating, the bond market shows international demand for American financial assets is as high as ever.
China Increases Diesel, Gasoline Prices as Much as 8%, Aiding Oil Refiners
China, the world’s second-biggest energy consumer, increased fuel prices by as much as 8 percent today, allowing the nation’s refiners to pass on climbing crude oil costs.
Prices charged by refiners to wholesalers for gasoline and diesel rose by 400 yuan ($58.57) a metric ton, the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s Beijing-based economic planning agency, said on its Web site late yesterday.
China will launch its first iron ore trading platform next week in a move that may lead to setting up its own pricing index and possibly exerting more influence over import costs, an official and reports said Friday.
The Rizhao International Iron Ore Trade Center will begin providing electronic commercial services for iron ore suppliers and steelmakers on Monday, said Liu Qiang, sales manager of Shandong Huaxin Trading Co., which is heading the project.
The center, a joint venture by Shandong Huaxin and four other local companies involved in bulk commodity dealings, will handle electronic transactions, information exchange, quality inspection, storage, transport, insurance and trade settlement, Liu said.
The center will act as a clearinghouse for information on iron ore trading, Liu said.
“As it gains influence in the long-term, it may have some influence on price negotiations,” he said.
Rizhao, a port in eastern China’s Shandong province, is one of the country’s biggest handlers of iron ore imports.
The trading platform would likely mainly serve China’s numerous smaller steelmakers. They buy independently from the biggest mills and do not pay the same benchmark prices the big steelmakers agree to each year in sometimes tortuous negotiations with overseas miners like Brazil’s Companhia Vale do Rio Doce SA and global miner Rio Tinto Group.
Meanwhile, the annual negotiations with overseas iron ore suppliers dragged on, according to the government-affiliated China Iron & Steel Association, which vehemently denied reports that Chinese steelmakers had settled for 30 percent to 35 percent price cuts.
“China’s steel industry and those of Japan and Korea are facing severe shocks from the global financial crisis,” CISA said in a statement posted on its Web site. It said the annual negotiations were continuing on a basis of “mutual interest and long-term stability.”
Unlike in previous years, when Shanghai-based Baosteel Group led the talks, this year CISA is handling the negotiations. Analysts say it is seeking at least a 40 percent cut in this year’s benchmark prices.
China imported 444 million tons of iron ore in 2008 – half of the volume of all imports worldwide, according to government figures. Imports in January through April surged to 188 million tons, as traders took advantage of lower prices to build up stockpiles.
Iron ore pricing has long been a point of contention between China, the world’s biggest steel producer and consumer, and foreign raw materials suppliers.
Such friction intensified in recent years as surging demand due to the booming economy and speculative buying drove prices for iron ore and other commodities higher.
But a slowing in industrial production due to the global economic crisis has raised expectations that Chinese and other steelmakers may win big concessions in this round of talks after yielding to demands for double-digit increases in ore prices in previous years.
[Source] — Associated Press researcher Ji Chen contributed to this report.
Bolivia and US agree to improve bilateral ties
Bolivian President Evo Morales has called for a complete overhaul of his country’s strained ties with the US. He urged “mutual respect” between the two nations, saying Washington should not interfere in Bolivia’s affairs.
Venezuelan Bonds Sink to Six-Week Low as Chavez Takeovers Fuel `Distrust’
Venezuela’s benchmark bonds fell to a six-week low after President Hugo Chavez announced the government will take over the hot-briquetted iron industry and other metal companies.
Chavez Takes Control of Venezuela’s Hot-Briquetted Iron, Steel Industries
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced the government will take over the hot-briquetted iron industry and other metal companies, increasing its control over the nation’s mineral-wealth industries.
Venezuelan Oil Keeps Attracting Bidders in Bets That Chavez Isn’t Forever
Chevron Corp. and Total SA are pursuing new Venezuelan oil projects after President Hugo Chavez tore up past agreements, seized assets of contractors and expelled producers that wouldn’t accept new terms.
Cash short Venezuela negotiating loans from Brazil
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, whose administration is facing cash shortages as oil revenues plunge, is negotiating loans from Brazil’s development bank to fund infrastructure projects, revealed the Brazilian newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo.
Brazilian Stocks Gain on Signs of Rising Demand, Commodities; Bolsa Rises Brazil’s
Bovespa index climbed, capping a weekly advance, on speculation domestic demand is recovering and as investors bought commodities to hedge against a weakening dollar.
Brazil’s Vale Lowers This Year’s Planned Investments to $9 Billion From $14 Billion
Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world’s biggest iron-ore producer, said falling costs and a stronger dollar allowed it to cut 2009 planned capital spending by 37 percent.
Mexican Billionaire Salinas May Enter California to Boost Hispanic Banking
Banco Azteca, controlled by Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas, says the financial crisis offers the bank a chance to enter the U.S. market and lure Hispanic customers.
Pemex Is `Too Optimistic’ About Chicontepec Development, Board Member Says
Petroleos Mexicanos, the state-owned oil company, should reconsider its $11.1 billion plan for the Chicontepec field because lower oil prices make the investment less attractive, said newly appointed board member Fluvio Ruiz.
[Crude Oil] – Oil Falls on Speculation Recovery Will Falter, Reducing Global Fuel Demand
Crude oil fell the most in almost a month on concern the global economic recovery may falter, reducing demand for fuel.
[Natural Gas] — Nymex Gas Falls as Reports Show Industrial Demand Will Be Slow to Recover
Natural gas futures fell for a third day as reports showed that demand for the fuel from factories and power plants will be slow to recover during the recession.
[Copper] – Copper’s U-Shaped Base Signals Rise, StanChart Says: Technical Analysis
Copper may rise to levels not seen since October in the month ahead, as the metal forms a U-shaped base, Standard Chartered Bank said, citing trading patterns.
[Gold & Silver] — Gold Advances in N.Y. on Speculation Equity Rally May Stall; Silver Gains
Gold prices rose, extending a rally to two weeks, as investment demand increased on rising consumer prices and signs that a rally in U.S. equities may be ending. Silver futures fell.
[Platinum & Palladium] — Platinum Falls as Dim Auto Outlook Cuts Demand in N.Y.; Palladium Gains
Platinum prices fell as the U.S. auto- industry slump eroded demand for the metal used in pollution- control parts. Palladium rose for the first time this week.
[Steel] — China Steel Industry Likely to Post Loss in 2009, Baosteel Chairman Says
China’s steel industry may post a loss this year, Baosteel Group Corp. Chairman Xu Lejiang said at a conference in Shanghai today. Xu said the Chinese steel industry is oversupplied and faces severe structural problems that have been worsened by the financial crisis.
[Soybeans] — Soybeans Head for Third Weekly Gain as Demand Cuts U.S. Supply
Soybeans climbed, heading for a third weekly gain, on speculation that increased global demand may further reduce inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest grower and exporter of the crop.
[Investments] — Where Commodities Fit In Your Portfolio
Commodities are a great way to diversify your portfolio, but if you are considering allocating some money to the group, don’t expect to catch a draft in the near future, even if there are signs the worst of the global slowdown may be over.
Jim Rogers sits down with Bloomberg host Haslinda Amin in his home base of Singapore. Haslinda gets a full twenty minutes to test his patience while she asks what his opinions are on investing in a variety of investment categories. Commodities. Currencies. North American Natural Gas. Yen Carry Trade. Agriculture. Equities. ETF’s.
As usual, Jim Rogers is sticking to what he knows best-raw materials. If you’re a new reader, or have not heard of Jim Rogers definitely run a search on the right of his name to bring up past posts and videos including him.
Part 1 /3
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Part 2 / 3
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Part 3 / 3
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