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Latin America’s China Addiction (Part 2): Are Commodity Prices Showing Signs Of Recovery?

[Source] : Seeking Alpha

Click here to read part 1 of this story 

China’s economic soft-landing has had a significant impact on economic growth across the globe and particularly in Latin America where mining and commodities production are key drivers of economic activity. In the first article of this series the linkage between Latin American economic growth, commodities exports and Chinese economic growth was illustrated. This showed that China’s slowing economy and decreased demand for commodities has been a key catalyst for the fall in economic growth across the region. It has also been a key catalyst for the plunging share prices being experienced by many resource companies, which include some of Latin America’s largest publicly tradable companies like Vale (VALE) and Petrobras (PBR).

Market outlook on commodities growing more optimistic

However, markets have been taking a more optimistic view of China and commodities over the last month. This growing optimism is based on signs that the contraction in Chinese economic activity is easing along with increasing speculation that the Chinese government will take action to boost growth. This has led to considerable speculation that there will be a recovery in commodities prices, which should see a renewal of economic growth in Latin America.

One of the key drivers of this growing optimism has been the slowing contraction of the Chinese manufacturing sector, with the Chinese purchasing managers’ index (PMI), rising in July to a five month high. There has also been renewed confidence in the iron ore mining sector with Australia’s third largest iron ore producer Fortescue Metal’s Group (FSUMF.PK) recently reporting an 8% increase in profit, along with positive statements from both Rio Tinto (RIO) and Vale concerning the future direction of iron ore prices. However, with the exception of crude oil it appears that this optimism is misplaced with commodity and basic materials prices continuing to fall.

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Jim Rogers (commodity guru) talks, people (should) listen

China Easing Moves ‘A Mistake’: Jim Rogers 

[Source] : CNBC

Image courtesy of Wikicommons

“I think they’re a mistake and there’s still inflation in China,” said Rogers on CNBC Asia’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday, referring to cuts in China’s reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and interest rates earlier this year.

“Yes, the property bubble has popped and prices have started coming down but not enough in my view. The most recent statistics show that Chinese property market is starting to recover,” he said.

Click here to read the complete article

Jim Rogers Says Silver Is A Better Investment Than Gold

[Source] : Seeking Alpha

By Jared Cummans

Jim Rogers is easily one of the most famous investors of all time. His astounding track record has led him to become one of the most successful traders ever, earning deep respect throughout the financial world. Better yet, Rogers is not the least bit shy about speaking his mind, whether he is right or wrong. Some of his previous statements included the fact that anyone who doesn’t invest in commodities is a fool, that gold will surely drop 20% from its current levels, and now, Rogers has stated that silver is a better investment than gold.

Gold investing has long dominated the precious metals space, as investors have used this ultra-popular metal as both a trading/speculative instrument as well as an integral part of a longer term strategy. While silver still has a large presence in the financial world, it is not often that a big name steps into the limelight and touts this white metal over its gold counterpart.

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Rare question and answer Xinhua Exclusive on China- Latam relations

Thank you Xinhua News. Please click here to access the article from Xinhua News.

 

China to deepen ties with Latin-America
2012-01-17 17:26     chinadaily.com.cn

Yang Wanming, director-general of the the Department of Latin American and Caribbean Affairs of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, exchanged views with chinanews.com readers online on Tuesday afternoon.

 

China to deepen ties with Latin-America

Yang Wanming, director-generalof the Department of Latin American and Caribbean Affairs of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, answers questions from chinanews.com readers online on Jan 17, 2012. [Photo/Chinanews.com]

 

Topic: China-Latin America cooperation in culture

Q: How do China and Latin America cooperate in the field of culture?

A: China has opened 32 Confucius institutes in Latin America, covering almost all Latin American countries. Both sides also send art troupes to visit one another and conduct people-to-people exchanges. Many Chinese people like their football, music and dances and engage in studying Spanish and Portuguese. Many Chinese books have also been translated into Spanish and sold in Latin America.

Topic: Cooperation in energy

Q: What’s the current situation with Sino-Latin American energy cooperation? Some people think China is plundering energy resources there and uses it as a way to curb the US.

A: China is trying to carry out comprehensive cooperation with Latin American countries and its efforts have been well welcomed by them. The cooperation not only benefits the two parties, but also contributes to global peace, stability and prosperity. It started late and is on a relatively small scale, but has been developing fast. China imported 20.73 million tons of crude oil from Latin American countries in 2010, which accounts for 8.7 percent of China’s total import in that year. Venezuela has become China’s 4th largest oil provider. The two parties will explore cooperation on new energy. It’s totally based on equality and mutual benefit and will do no harm to the third party.

Topic: US view on China-Latin America relationship

Q: The relationship between China and Latin American countries has developed so fast. What do you think of the feeling in the US to this?

A: In recent years, the independence of Latin American countries is growing and its economic growth momentum becomes more diverse than before.

The rapid development of China-Latin America relations is on the basis of mutual benefit and win-win for both sides and is within the needs of Latin American countries’ diversified diplomacy and development strategy.

It will not only benefit development of both, but also contribute to the world’s stability and development.

China and the US have already established a consultation mechanism on Latin-America, and through four different consultations, the two parties have enhanced their mutual trust on this issue.

And the US has repeatedly stressed in their consultations that strengthening relations between China and Latin American countries will be good for Latin-America’s stability and development.

Topic: Chinese workers kidnapped in Colombia

Q: It was reported that several Chinese employees were kidnapped in Colombia by unidentified armed militants. How are they now? Could you release some information about the rescue efforts?

A: Four Chinese workers were kidnapped by some unknown armed militants in Caquetá province in Colombia on June 8, 2011. We have urged the Colombia authority to spare no effort to carry on the rescue work under the premise of guaranteeing the safety of hostages. Since then, the Chinese embassy in Colombia has kept in close cooperation and contact with Colombia’s relevant departments. The rescue work has not finished yet, but the safety of the four hostages can be guaranteed. Chinese companies are facing more risks as they go global on a larger scale. We need to increase our political backup and diplomatic guarantee to them, strengthen the consular protection and safeguard their legitimate interests. Meanwhile we advise Chinese people in Latin America to improve their sense of safety and precaution.

Q: How about China-Mexico relations?

A: China and Mexico are both developing countries and are working at enhancing people’s living standards. They hold the same positions on many international issues and regularly cooperate on these..

China and Mexico have some trade friction over trade imbalance problems, but we hope both sides can deal with the problems reasonably and from a development point of view.

We hope both can take active measures to promote the diverse, comprehensive and healthy development of the two countries’ economic and trade relations.

February 14 marks the 40th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Mexico. We believe the relations can become more comprehensive, steadier and healthier with the two countries’ joint efforts in the future.

Q: Can you talk about the relationship between China and Brazil?

A: Brazil is one of the biggest countries in Latin America and one of the emerging powers in the region. The China-Brazil relationship is one of the most important between China and Latin America.

In recent years, the strategic partnership between China and Brazil has made considerable progress. They maintain a good momentum of high-level exchanges and the political mutual trust is deepened.

Their economical cooperation is also deepening constantly, which has brought tangible benefits to people of both countries. Bilateral trade volume exceeded $80 billion in 2011. Investment cooperation in finance, energy, steel, and machine manufacturing has also made great progress, and is expanding constantly.

China and Brazil have active exchanges in science, technology and culture as well.

The cooperation in the fields of Earth resource satellites, agricultural technology and aviation is progressing continuously. And the cooperation in culture and education is also very close.

China’s Confucius Institute Headquarters opened two Confucius Institutes and a Confucius school in Brazil and Brazil’s important media institutions have sent many journalists to work in China.

China and Brazil are both developing countries and have broad and consistent interests on major international issues. The Chinese government attaches great importance to relations with Brazil and believes the two countries’ cooperation in various fields will make great progress with their joint efforts.

 

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Peru to set up sovereign wealth fund

Img courtesy of Wikicommons

Peru plans to set up a sovereign wealth fund, taking advantage of record foreign reserves and metal prices to finance investments in infrastructure and education, Finance Minister Ismael Benavides said.

The Andean country may tap its $44 billion in foreign currency reserves and tax revenue to create the fund before the President Alan Garcia’s term ends in July, Benavides said in an interview in New York today.

“We have not only reserves but extraordinary revenues from mineral exports,” the 65-year-old Benavides said, without providing details about how the fund would work. “We might come up with something in the first quarter next year.”

The fund would be modeled after a $12.8 billion fund Chile created in 2006 to hoard windfall profits from surging copper prices, Benavides said. Peru is the world’s largest producer of silver and second-largest producer of copper after Chile. Metals accounted for 62 percent of exports in the first half of 2010.

Click here to read the full article, direct from Bloomberg

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China passes US as #1 destination for Peruvian Exports

Bloomberg reports China has surpassed the United States as Peru’s top destination for exports.

Additionally, Peruvian exports may rise to record levels as Chinese demand alone has helped boos Peruvian exports by 17%, totaling $31.6 billion USD.

Chinese demand will help boost Peru’s exports 17 percent to $31.6 billion after last year’s 15 percent decline, Juan Carlos Mathews, export director at the government’s trade promotion agency Promperu, said in an interview in Lima yesterday. Exports may rise 9 percent next year, he said.

China overtook the U.S. as Peru’s top export destination for the first month on record in July, aided by a free-trade agreement signed in 2009, Mathews said. China accounted for 17 percent of Peru’s exports according to preliminary data for July, compared with 16.8 percent for the U.S., as the world’s second-largest economy increased purchases of fruit, fresh fish and wood products, Mathews said.

“We’ve found an alternative market at a time of global crisis,” Mathews said. “The Asian market has been one of the ways out.”

Click here to read more direct from Bloomberg

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Must read article about Sino-Latin American relations

A must read article for anyone interested in Sino-Latin American relations was published today on SeekingAlpha’s website.  It is written by Erik Bethel, one of the four founders and CEO of Sino-Latin Capital.  I highly recommend it to anyone even mildly interested in the growth of Sino-Latin American relations.

Click here to access the full article direct from SeekingAlpha.

Travel to any country in Latin America and you will see the visible hand of China at work: a computer manufacturing plant in Mexico, a copper mine in Peru, a football stadium in Costa Rica. In the year 2007, the thought of China in Latin America would have appeared, at best, improbable. But in a three-year stretch, China signed free trade agreements with Chile, Peru and Costa Rica, inked billions of dollars worth of deals in oil and mining projects throughout the region, and supplanted the US as Brazil’s biggest trading partner. Once almost unseen in Latin America, China’s bilateral trade has risen from $12bn in 2000 to well over $150bn today.

Given the importance of its new Asian friend, Latin Americans are rolling out the red carpets to Chinese business delegations and jumping on planes not only to Beijing but also to Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Tianjin.

Rationale Behind Chinese Investments in Latin America [...]

Please visit SeekingAlpha to read the full article

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China-Peru FTA goes into force this February

China’s second FTA with a Latin American nation will become active this February 2010. A mile stone for both country’s, the agreement seeks to boost bilateral trade to new levels.

Here are the basic facts and forecasts, provided via this article from Nasdaq.com. For the record, author Sophie Kevany, is a superb journalist who is actually based in Peru. This article does not do justice to her credo of true investigative journalism I have read in the past, but no less is always a good source for all that is Peruvian finance.

Check out her other articles on the WSJ, Decanter (yes she even writes about Peruvian wines and spirits), and well, just google her name and you’ll be greeted with a swarm of informative pieces about Peru and the greater South American region.

LIMA -(Dow Jones)- Peru’s free trade agreement with China is set to come into force early February, and it is expected to boost total trade values to an estimated $8 billion in its first year.

The treaty was ratified earlier this month by a supreme government decree, meaning Peru’s congress will not vote on it, state newspaper El Peruano said Wednesday.

The treaty excludes so called “sensitive products” such as textiles, shoes and clothing, Peru’s Vice Minister for Trade and Tourism, Eduardo Ferreyros, told El Peruano.

Trade between the two countries is expected to total about $5.5 billion in 2009. Of that, exports to China from Peru are expected to reach $3 billion, Ferreyros told state news agency Andina, while imports from China should total about $2.5 billion.

-By Sophie Kevany, Dow Jones Newswires; 51-198-903-8043; sophie.kevany@ dowjones.com

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Commodity Markets; weekly roundup

Rogers International Commodity Index

Rogers International Commodity Index (Oct 26-30, 2009)

(Oct 26-30, 2009)

VALUE as of 10/30/09

Rogers Internatioanl Commodity Index

21.7

Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index

131.86

METALS

Copper (USD/lb)

2.92

Zinc (USD/lb)

0.97

Aluminum (USD/lb)

0.83

Lead (USD/lb)

1.03

Nickel (USD/lb)

8.22

Gold (USD/oz)

1045.7

Silver (USD/oz)

16.34

Platinum (USD/oz)

1329.00

Palladium (USD/oz)

325.00

ENERGY

Crude Oil (USD/bbl)

76.99

Natural Gas (USD/MMBtu)

5.012

AGRICULTURE

Corn (USD/bu)

366

Rice (USD/cwt)

14.36

Soybeans (USD/bu)

978

Wheat (USD/bu) *CBT

494

Live Hog (USD/lb)

56.7

Live Cattle (USD/lb)

85.68

*metals commodity prices obtained via Kitco Metals
*energy commodity prices obtained via Yahoo Finance
*agriculture commodity prices obtained via Yahoo Finance
*wheat futures via Bloomberg

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Former President of Peru, Alejandro Toledo criticizes FTA with China

AgenciaPeru.tv — Spanish news bite of former President Alejandro Toledo of Peru.

Toledo comments on Peru’s FTA with China

Former President Alejandro Toledo criticized the free trade agreement that Peru and China signed in April this year. Toledo was at the Club de la Banca in San Isidro, Lima this afternoon after talks with a group of businessmen on the financial crisis and opportunities for Peruvians.

Remember, Toledo was instrumental in rebuilding Peru’s market economy and in promoting the signing of the Free Trade Agreement between the United States and Peru. It is curious as to why a man who was once labeled a lap dog of US policy in promoting free trade and free market economics is now expressing concern about Peru’s FTA with China.

If you can understand Spanish I suggest watching this short video to get his full commentary. If not, the general gist of his message is that Peru simply needs to be careful and help empower Peru’s micro-enterprises with the skills necessary to compete Chinese labor and cheap manufacturing.

Second, in the midst of this crisis, Peru can not forget the pains and ills of the everyday Peruvian on the street. Although the agreement with China is something which can potentially bring long term investment and growth in trade, it is important to not forget about the Peruvians which will be affected (economically) by the growth in exchange with China.

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New potential strikes looming for Peru’s mining industry

Shougang is not the only miner down in Peru for which trouble is brewing. Peru’s national federation of mine workers said on Friday (yesterday), it is planning to hold walkouts across the entire sector next week.

libcom.org

libcom.org

“The position of the workers is to go on strike on Monday starting at 9 a.m. (1400 GMT) and leave the mines,” Luis Castillo, the federation’s director, told Reuters.

Reuters reports some unions have agreed to stay on the job, but considering that Peru is the largest producer of silver in the world, #2 of zinc, #3 of copper, #4 of lead, and #6 in gold—such a walk out does have the potential ripple over into global spot prices for the above mentioned metals.

When miners held a similar strike in mid-2008 and the strike helped push copper prices toward a record high—although this was at the peak of bull markets, the market effect is no less noted. The underlying point; markets are watching and investors pay attention to these kinds of things.

Company’s which will be affected include, Volcan (VOL_pb.LM), Newmont (NEM), Freeport-McMoRan’s (FXN), Xstrata’s (XTA.L), Buenaventura (BVN), Southern Copper (PCU) and BHP Billiton (BHP).

Click here to access a more details story on this topic from Reuters.

As always, CSA will keep you up to date with relevant developments as they unfold.

~ Benito

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