This week’s Economist “America’s Section”

1. Peru’s Presidential Election: The risk of throwing it all away

Populists like Ollanta Humala (pictured below) threaten to overcome divided moderates in one of Latin America’s fastest-growing economies

LIVING in Peru’s capital is like watching a film on fast-forward. Every few months you can spot a taller skyscraper, a swankier hotel, glossier shops and restaurants, new roads—and more traffic. House prices in the leafier neighbourhoods have almost doubled in the past two years. Rapid change is not confined to Lima. The only provincial cities of any size that do not already boast one or more new shopping malls and multiplex cinemas are about to get them. These are the tangible results of a decade in which Peru’s GDP grew by over 5% a year, the highest rate among Latin America’s bigger economies.

Since 2006 the growth has accelerated, averaging 7% despite the world recession. Some good effects have been widespread. The share of Peruvians living in poverty fell from 49% in 2004 to 35% in 2009. Much of the Pacific coast, where farmers export asparagus, grapes and a plateful of other products, enjoys full employment. Though many parts of the Andean highlands remain poor, the arrival of paved roads is cutting journey times, and some farmers there have joined the export boom with artichokes and herbs. Social indicators have improved. Between 2005 and 2010 Peru climbed 24 places in the United Nations Human Development Report, which ranks countries by income, life expectancy and educational measures. It now scores better then Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela… click link above to continue reading the full article direct from the Economist

2. Kin selection — When family replaces party

KEIKO FUJIMORI’S unique selling point in Peru’s presidential election (see article) is her surname. In 1990, when she was 15, her father, Alberto Fujimori, won the presidency and stayed for ten years. Despite his many faults, Mr Fujimori, who is now in jail for corruption and human-rights abuses, retains the support of some Peruvians, who credit him with defeating the Maoist terrorists of the Shining Path. The family political brand helped Ms Fujimori get more votes than any other candidate for Peru’s Congress in 2006. Now she hopes it will take her to the presidency.

She is part of a growing Latin American trend for politics to become a family affair. In Argentina Cristina Fernández succeeded her husband, Néstor Kirchner, as president in 2007. Until his sudden death last October he had been expected to try to take back the presidential sash at an election this year. If Ms Fernández opts to run again, her son will be among her political advisers. Her opponents will probably include Ricardo Alfonsín, whose father was president in the 1980s… click link above to continue reading the full article direct from the Economist

Bloomberg — Inter-American Bank to ‘De-Dollarize’ Region With Local Currency Funds

The Inter-American Development Bank plans to help Latin American countries “de-dollarize” their economies by providing more financing in local currencies, said bank President Luis Alberto Moreno.

“Part of our role should be to help the countries in the region de-dollarize and to have more of their stock of debt in local currency,” Moreno said in an interview during the bank’s annual meeting in Calgary.

Surging foreign investment and faster economic growth are leading to stronger currencies in countries such as Chile, Brazil and Mexico. The region accounted for twice as much of global capital inflows in 2009 as it did in 2006, Moreno said.

“That is having a huge impact on our exchange rates, on the tradable sector,” Moreno, 56, said. “All countries are worrying about the impact of overheating.”

To offset the currency gains and to develop capital markets across the region, the Washington-based lender plans to increase borrowing in local currencies, while allowing more borrowers in the region to convert their IDB loans from U.S. dollars.

Click here to read the full article from Bloomberg

MUST READ ARTICLE – Obama / US Wake up! Look South for Opportunities

Finally, FINALLY… an article which logically presents the incredible opportunities for the US in Latin America… it’s neighbors — [ http://www.latinbusinesschronicle.com/app/article.aspx?id=4809 ]

Obama it’s time as we say in Peru to “ponte las pilas” and look South to your long ignored neighbors.

” For Obama, a New World to Discover — “The Americas will remain a new world of opportunity for U.S. workers and farmers if Washington is prepared to lead. There’s no time like the present for American business to get a piece of the action — or for President Obama to help open the door.” ~~ Latin America Business Chronicle

Interview with Dr. Kevin P. Gallagher, author of the “Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin America”

Last week, China South America was fortunate enough to meet and interview, via a skype, Dr. Kevin P. Gallagher, author the new book   The Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin American Industrialization (with Roberto Porzecanski).

Dr. Gallagher is a Professor at Boston University in International Relations and is faculty coordinator for Boston University’s Global Development Policy Program. Furthermore, In 2009 he served on the investment subcommittee of the US Department of State’s of the Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy. Professor Gallagher writes regular columns on global economic and development policy for The Guardian, Financial Times, and POLITICO.  He co-chairs the Triple Crisis blog.

In the roughly 30 minutes we talked, we discussed

What motivated you? Dr. Gallagher to write the Sino-Latin American dynamic and motivated him to write The Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin American Industrialization

Mr. Gallagher’s inspiration emerged from the 3 years he spent living in Guadalajara, also known as Mexico’s Silicon Valley.  During his time in Mexico, it became very clear there was a “new kid on the block.”  When speaking with Mexican professionals, the US market and future significance for the Mexican economy had to Mr. Gallagher’s surprise taken a back seat to the emergence of China.

It was around this time in 2005, Dr. Gallagher began to investigate what the rise of China meant for both Mexico, and the greater Latin America region.  Would China’s high speed growth and fast rising competitiveness undermine Latin America’s capacity to develop their own competitive industries, or would China’s rise breed new possibilities and growth in Latin American countries?  This formed foundation for his book, which you can click here to purchase a copy of.

Next we discussed the general importance of the growth of Sino-Latin American relations and trade.

Similar to the perspectives often presented here at ChinaSouthAmerica.com, Dr. Gallagher feels the rise of China and its penetration in Latin America comes with a significant amount of uncertainty for the region, offering both opportunities and dangers.  The opportunities are clearer for some countries than others.

For major commodity producers down in South America; Venezuela, Peru, Chile and Argentina the rewards are being felt tangibly, and NOW.  China has presented itself as a new market for their raw materials exports, and Chinese demand has helped push the prices of raw materials to record highs.  However, the danger is that history may well repeat itself if the income generated from selling raw materials to China are not re-deployed efficiently and strategically to create sustainable, globally competitive industries.

The panorama for Mexico and Brazil, Latin America’s economic giants share some similarities because both countries have well a relatively broad range of developed, competitive industrial sectors.  In this case, China is a challenger to their own industries.  The positive and negatives effects of being forced to compete with their Chinese counterparts is debatable, but thus it seems Mexican and Brazilian companies have managed to meet the challenge and it seems Chinese competition will in the long-run catalyze innovation and economies of scale.

On the other hand, there are also major differences for Mexico and Brazil when considering China.  The major difference, and one that is impossible to overlook, is undoubtedly Mexico’s proximity to the United States.    Mexico competes almost directly with China’s manufacturing sector.  The major factor which will dictate how the future unfolds concerns how well Mexico can capitalize off the geographic competitive advantage of being at the door step of the world’s largest consumer market.  It will be important to monitor:

• Rising wages in China vs. Mexico.
• Raw material costs
• The total costs of producing increasingly sophisticated manufactured goods in both countries vs. total time it takes to produce and deliver the goods to the end buyers.

What’s next? Right now the majority of interaction between China and Latin America is occurring at a two levels—government to government, and major company to company.  What are your perspectives on the future of growth of a third level of exchange—that being personal ones between Chinese and Latin Americans down on the ground in both China and Latin America?  What types of opportunities does the future hold for the next generation that is able to form these links?

Like your author of ChinaSouthAmerica.com, Dr. Gallagher believes this to be the “million dollar question,” and one that is not easy to answer.  We will sadly have to wait for his next book which will focus on this question, and which your author hopes to help Mr. Gallagher answer when the time comes.

To conclude, I asked Dr. Gallagher about if he had any thoughts to share on the specific countries of Peru, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia– the countries which your author most closely follows.

“These are a very diverse set of countries, and I wouldn’t dare generalize across the entire set of them.  The one thing I can say about each of these is that in terms of copper (Peru and Chile), Iron (Brazil), soy (Brazil and Argentina), and crude oil (Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela) this particular set of Latin American nations and the respective commodities is very strategic for China.  China will continue to purchase imports of these commodities and to invest heavily in them.  These country’s governments should be strategic in return.  In order to get the broadest set of benefits from this new market player in China, Latin Americans have to see to it that they can also provide stable supplies over time, create jobs for their people, and manage their exchange rates so that commodities exports don’t crowd out more productive and employment creating activity.  If these nations see China as an opportunity, by bargaining hard with the Chinese and put in place parallel policies in terms of jobs, industrialization, and environmental policy, China may turn out to be a boon.“

As I am currently writing this post from China, where this book is not yet available, I unfortunately have not yet been able to get my hands on a copy of this book. In the 30 minutes I spoke with Dr. Gallagher he exhibited great insight on all that is the growth of Sino-Latin American relations and economic exchange.  I look forward to reading the book for myself after I get my hands on a copy in January when I travel to the US and South America.  If you the reader seek a rich and comprehensive analysis on the growth of China and Latin America’s relations, ChinaSouthAmerica highly recommends you pick up your own copy of The Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin American Industrialization.

CLICK HERE to buy your own copy (hardcover) from Amazon.com of The Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin American Industrialization

or, CLICK HERE for the soft cover edition

Sinopec to Invest $7.1 Billion in Repsol’s Brazil Unit

China Petrochemical Corp., the country’s second-largest oil and gas producer, will invest $7.1 billion in Repsol YPF SA’s Brazilian unit as the Spanish oil company raises funds to develop offshore projects.

Sinopec Group, as the company is known, will buy new shares in the Brazilian unit and will hold 40 percent of that division after the capital increase, Madrid-based Repsol said today in a statement. Shares in Repsol, which previously planned an initial public offering of the unit, jumped to a two-year high.

The acquisition is the second-largest overseas purchase by a Chinese company as the world’s biggest energy consumer snaps up fields to meet surging demand. Repsol has stakes in blocks in Brazil’s Santos and Espirito Santo basins and plans to invest as much as $14 billion there through 2019. It estimates the Guara and Carioca fields may hold as much as 3 billion barrels.

… Continue reading here direct from Bloomberg

New Silk Road Built by China Connects Asia to Latin America – Bloomberg

Bloomberg just published a fascinating article about the growth of inter-emerging market trade.   I highly recommend read the complete story, direct from Bloomberg’s website.  Below, CSA presents a few excerpts from the article, which highlight some of the exchange between fellow emerging markets.

“There are now massive trade connections within the emerging markets and they’re becoming increasingly important,” said King in a telephone interview. “It means in one sense the emerging world is protected from the worst ravages of the developed world.”

Shenzen-based Huawei Technologies Co., its biggest maker of phone equipment, had orders of $1.7 billion from India in 2008 and said in January that it will invest $500 million in its research center in Bangalore.

China Mobile Ltd. of Hong Kong, the world’s biggest phone carrier, is “interested in doing business in Africa,” where it can boost services in rural areas, Chairman Wang Jianzhou said in a June 26 interview.

Vale in 2009 acquired stakes in three copper projects, in Zambia, Africa’s largest producer of the metal, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. In April this year, the company agreed to pay $2.5 billion for iron ore deposits in Guinea, including assets the country confiscated from the Rio Tinto Group.

There is still scope for ties to strengthen. In a study released last week, the Washington-based Inter-American Development Bank concluded “massive bilateral trade” could develop between Latin America and India if tariffs are cut.

Click here to access the complete article from Bloomberg

China to create $5 billion fund to invest in Latin America

In line with China’s outbound investment strategies in Africa and Asia, China is now planning to create a $5 billion usd investment fund for Latin American investments.

The funds target investments will include, infrastructure (probably to help the Chinese get commodities out), agriculture, mining and energy.

Read more in Spanish from Argentinean DERF Agencia de Noticias.

South America: An Analysis of Arms Races and Regional Geopolitics

A insightful analysis on the ongoing arms build up occurring in South America was released on Tuesday, October 20 by Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA). You can access the full analysis, written by research fellow Alex Sanchez if you sign up to be a (free) member of MercoPress.

Img: MercoPress

MercoPress is an independent news agency based in Montevideo, Uruguay focused on delivering news related to South America, Mercosur-member countries and covering an area of influence which includes the South Atlantic and insular territories.

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In mid-September, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton critiqued Venezuela’s leader Hugo Chavez for his ongoing purchases of mostly Russian military equipment, arguing that this could trigger an arms race in South America. The statement has added fuel to the ongoing discussions about what form South America’s rearmament is taking and what this could come to mean for the security of the region.

The aim of this paper is to discuss the major arms purchases now going on in South America and the likelihood of inter-state war breaking out as the result. Ongoing reports about major purchases by Venezuela, Brazil and Chile tend to blur the actual geo-security situation in the region, as several countries, with Argentina as the most prominent example, have carried out only limited military acquisitions. The common perception is that an arms race raises the possibility of inter-state war; however, the reality in South America (and Central America as well) is that inter-state warfare has seldom occurred since World War II. Additionally, regarding the arms race in South America, it is misleading to assume that all South American countries are carrying out their arm purchases with the same gusto as Brazil, Chile and Venezuela.

It is generally assumed that South America is either already engaged in an arms race or is about to enter one. This is somewhat inconsistent because the start of an arms race is not easily defined. It could also be argued that what is occurring is not so much a general arms race as it is a product of certain militaries capitalizing on weak civilian governments (an updated version of former Uruguayan President Bordaberry in 1973) to increase their defense budgets. Furthermore, in spite of domestic security issues in several South American countries, most notably the insurgent movements in Colombia and Peru as well as occasional inter-state tensions, the reality is that inter-state wars in the region have been notably scarce in the past few decades, which raises the question: is interstate warfare necessarily the future of South America? The final section of this article will discuss whether an arms race could lead to general warfare.

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Click here to access the full analysis from MercoPress

Bolivia to buy Chinese jets to battle drugs reports Bloomberg

Coca Leaves Being Dryed

Bolivia plans to buy six Chinese light military aircraft worth nearly $58 million to fight drug traffickers in the world’s No. 3 cocaine producer, leftist President Evo Morales said on Saturday.

“Last week we issued a supreme decree to … acquire six K-8 aircraft from China,” said Morales in a speech in La Paz to mark the 52nd anniversary of the Bolivian air force.

Morales said his government decided to acquire the K-8, a jet trainer that can be used as a light attack aircraft, after the U.S. government blocked the country from buying similar planes from the Czech Republic.

Click here to read the complete article from Reuters

October fire sale! Russian credit & Rubles accepted

Rigzone reported today that a Russian oil consortium would not have the pay the $1 billion usd Venezuela had previously requested as a down payment in order to partake in tapping Venezuela’s Orinoco oil fields.

Instead, the Russian consortium will only have to pay $600 million usd. Sounds like a nice 40% bargain to this blogger. It’s a nice deal if you ask me, which coincidentally comes on the heels of Venezuela’s securing a large credit line from Russia to buy military equipment.

Orinoco Belt Regions – [Rigzone, 10-6-09]

According to this Dow Jones Newswire published by Rigzone,

The Chavez-led government has talked about plans for nearly $70 billion in oil investments over the coming years as this oil-rich nation seeks to ramp up dwindling production numbers and boost its sagging economy.

But so far, nearly all those plans are based only on memorandums of understanding, with no solid investment commitments from foreign oil companies.

Sounds like Venezuela is becoming increasingly hungry not only for foreign investment, but also to cement its relations with a geopolitical power like the Russian Federation.

Click here to read the newswire article from Rigzone, which I must admit does a far better job at detailing the situation than the concise, and slightly cynical analysis published here at China South America (CSA).