Lead and soybeans poised to rise as most commodities fall and global equities tumble

Diversification is key to allocating your risk when investing.  If you’re in equities and commodities (precious and non-precious metals, energy or agriculture) you have probably seen your portfolio take a serious in the past few weeks.

Two commodities however, seem poised to buck this trend, as Bloomberg reports in these two separate pieces on lead and soybeans.

You can click the article titles or the links below the excerpts posted here to read each respective report in its entirety.

Lead Shortage Looms in ’13 on Record Demand for Batteries - Bloomberg

Lead is poised to rally after erasing this year’s gains with the market returning to shortages following a five-year glut as miners fail to keep pace with record demand for batteries.

Stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange dropped 7.6 percent from the all-time high reached in October. Demand will exceed supply by 150,000 metric tons next year, equal to about six months of U.S. mine production, Macquarie Group Ltd. estimates. Prices will average $2,273 a ton in the fourth quarter, 13 percent more than now, according to the median of 18 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Click here to access the full article direct from Bloomberg

Soybeans Rise From Six-Week Low as Biggest Growers’ Exports Gain - Bloomberg

Soybeans rebounded from a six-week low as export sales from the U.S. and Brazil climbed, draining supply in the world’s two largest growers.

The amount of soybeans inspected for U.S. export almost doubled in the week to May 10 to 20.3 million bushels from the prior seven days, the Department of Agriculture said yesterday. In Brazil, growers had sold 83 percent of the harvest as of May 11, up from 63 percent a year ago, according to researcher Celeres.

Click here to access the full article direct from Bloomberg

UPDATE: Arg/ Spain/ China Drama: Argentina pushes on with YPF expropriation

The saga continues. Read more by clicking the link below to access the full story direct from Reuters

(Reuters) – Argentine lawmakers took their first step toward nationalizing the country’s No. 1 oil company on Wednesday when a Senate committee agreed on the outline of a bill to put YPF under state control.

President Cristina Fernandez unveiled plans on Monday to seize a 51 percent controlling stake in YPF from Spain’s Repsol (REP.MC), sparking a chorus of condemnation from Madrid to Washington. Trade partners, already disgruntled by protectionist measures adopted by Buenos Aires, warned the move could hobble private investment in Latin America’s No. 3 economy.

Click here to read the article in its entirety direct from Reuters

FT reports Argentina swoop scuppers China oil deal

To respect the high quality journalism produced by the Financial Times I will honor their request not to copy and paste their content.

However click here to read about the soap opera that has become Sinopec of China’s attempt to buy 57% of Repsol of Spain, stake in Argentina’s oil company YPF (Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales) before it was nationalized by Buenos Aires.

Disussion: Global demand for tropical hardwoods

Here is one side: China Denies Plundering World’s Rain Forests

BEIJING — China on Tuesday denied accusations of plundering the world’s rain forests to meet booming demand for wood.

Environment groups say China is at the heart of a global trade for lumber it sells to markets in the United States and Europe and that much of its plywood exports comes from illegal logging.

Domestic demand from a fast-growing economy only adds to the problem, they say.

“As for the question that China’s large demand for timber assists illegal logging and smuggling from Asia, this statement has no basis,”State Forestry Administration spokesman Cao Qingyao told a news conference.

“The Chinese government consistently upholds and puts in practice collective international responsibility, opposing and cracking down on illegal logging cin illegal wood imports,” Cao said. “We have very strict import controls.”

Click here to read the complete article

Lets start a discussion.  If interested shoot me an email. bennett.reiss@linksinolatino.com

China – Latin America stories bombard the inter-webs

Case Study on Chinese FDI in Peruvian Natural Resources – Americas’ Quarterly

China’s huge appetite for energy and minerals to fuel its expanding economy has strained international markets for oil, natural gas, iron ore, coal, copper, nickel, aluminum, and other resources. To satisfy China’s hunger for raw materials, Chinese companies, backed by the government, have been acquiring

equity stakes in natural resource companies, extending loans to mining and petroleum investors, and writing long-term procurement contracts for oil and minerals in Africa, Latin America, Australia, Canada, and other resource-rich regions.

In fact, more than half of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in natural resources is in Latin America. It is concentrated in 34 major projects that stretch from Venezuela and Ecuador through Brazil, Bolivia and Peru to Argentina and Chile. Since China launched its “going out” strategy, encouraging companies to become more competitive, total Chinese FDI in Latin America has increased nearly sevenfold, from $226 million in 2003 to $1.6 billion in 2009.

Click here for the complete story

For Latin America, China Both Friend And Foe – Forbes

Is China more friend than foe for countries like Brazil and Mexico? A study to be published in Americas Quarterly journal this week shows that the relationship is actually quite well balanced.

By 2004, China’s arrival in Latin America was being felt with the full force of a fire breathing dragon. China imports totaled $17.9 billion to Latin American countries, more than double where they were just four years prior at $7 billion. At the time, I asked Brazil’s Trade Minister at the time, Luis Fernando Furlan, what the country could do to avoid China’s footsteps. His take at the time was basically to design better mousetraps, under the idea that Brazil’s trading partners would buy items like shoes because the design was cool. That might be true to some extent, but the textile and apparel industry in Brazil and throughout Latin America has lost market share abroad and domestically to China competitors. The good news, the ground they are losing is not as bad as some might have thought when China’s presence was just starting to be felt there.

Click here for the complete story

Latam: exporters rue Chinese rivals – FT report on the Quarterly America study

There’s no doubt that China’s growth has created a market ripe for Latin America exports, particularly natural resources. But have Chinese manufacturers – using those same imported raw materials – hurt the sales of their LatAm rivals? The evidence has mostly been anecdotal. Until now.

Click here for the complete article

Christopher Sabatini: China’s Geostrategic Designs on Latin America – Fox News Latino

In the last 5 years China’s military activities in Latin America and the Caribbean have grown at an unprecedented rate. Beijing now regularly hosts officers from Colombia, Chile, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay in its military academies, has expanded arms sales and technology transfers to countries like Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and Venezuela, and in October last year even sent a navy ship to the Caribbean.

Is China—now Brazil and Chile’s number-one trade partner—buttressing its economic interests in the Western

Hemisphere with military ties and alliances? Is this the Middle Kingdom’s equivalent of President Barack Obama’s Pacific pivot to balance China’s saber rattling in Asia?

Click here for the complete article

China plants bitter seeds in South American farmland – Washington Times

BUENOS AIRES — Few were surprised when Venezuela announced a deal with China last week to restore 1.4 million acres of unproductive farmland across the oil-rich but impoverished South American nation.

China increasingly is buying farmland and agricultural companies in South America to feed its ever-growing population, currently estimated to be 1.34 billion.

The most important aspect of China’s agricultural investment in Latin America is that “it is a part of the increasing physical footprint of the People’s Republic of China that is just beginning to occur,” said Evan Ellis, an assistant professor at National Defense University in Washington.

Click here for the complete article

China’s export to Latin America: Corruption – CNN

By Ariel C. Armony – Special to CNN

Shoes. Toys. Clothing. China has inundated Latin American markets with cheap goods. This flooding has jolted local producers and generated demands for government measures to protect domestic industries. But there is one Chinese export that has not received enough attention among policymakers, media analysts and public opinion: Corruption.

Though China and Latin America have different values and attitudes, both have traditionally lacked transparency in government. They operate according to informal business dealings which, in turn, undermine or further weaken the rule of law. Corrupt practices exacerbate distortions in public administration, impair sustainable development, erode a nation’s legal culture, and worsen inequality and poverty.

Click here for the complete article

Reality? Or the creation of a far-fetched “external threat?”

The UK’s Telegraph ran a interesting story yesterday, citing General Sir Michael Jackson.

Britain faces ‘impossible’ battle if Argentina invades Falklands, warns General Sir Michael Jackson

The men who served under this former head of the Army used to call him Darth Vader, and it’s easy to see why.

The deep, gravelly growl, the fierce stare and the air of absolute authority make him an intimidating figure, even when he’s just offering a cup of tea at his home in west London. “Earl Grey,” sounds like an order, not an offer.

This 67-year-old expects people to listen when he speaks, and right now he is giving a startling warning about the Falklands, prompted by the “disagreeable noises coming from Buenos Aires”. He chooses his words carefully, but their meaning is clear.

“The official answer will be that it would not be possible for the Argentinians to gain a foothold on the islands, in particular to take Mount Pleasant airfield, which is key to the British defence plan.

Defences on the Falklands are better now – by a factor of several tens –than they were in 1982. We have a large international-sized airfield to allow for very rapid reinforcement by air, should circumstances so require. But I suppose I have learned in life, never say never.”

Click here to read the complete article from the Telegraph.co.uk

NYT: Latin America Looks at West’s Fiscal Crises, and Sees Its Own Past

RIO DE JANEIRO — Sometimes it comes in the form of a news dispatch, like the item from Milan explaining how Italians fret about “the spread,” a term used to refer to the gap between their high borrowing costs and the lower interest rates for Germany.

The angst has included protests in Spain, images of rioters in London or the police using pepper spray to disperse demonstrators in California.

And, of course, there is the steady drip of reports focusing on default fears in Greece.

For many months now, Latin Americans have been monitoring the constant drumbeat of crises in developed countries with bewilderment, irony and, yes, even a bit of schadenfreude. To them, Europe and the United States are displaying problems once associated with their region, which, not long ago, was a perennial champion in financial crises and bailouts.

Click here to read the full article from the NYT.com

Rare question and answer Xinhua Exclusive on China- Latam relations

Thank you Xinhua News. Please click here to access the article from Xinhua News.

Yang Wanming, director-general of the the Department of Latin American and Caribbean Affairs of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, exchanged views with chinanews.com readers online on Tuesday afternoon.

 

Yang Wanming, director-generalof the Department of Latin American and Caribbean Affairs of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, answers questions from chinanews.com readers online on Jan 17, 2012. [Photo/Chinanews.com]

 

Topic: China-Latin America cooperation in culture

Q: How do China and Latin America cooperate in the field of culture?

A: China has opened 32 Confucius institutes in Latin America, covering almost all Latin American countries. Both sides also send art troupes to visit one another and conduct people-to-people exchanges. Many Chinese people like their football, music and dances and engage in studying Spanish and Portuguese. Many Chinese books have also been translated into Spanish and sold in Latin America.

Topic: Cooperation in energy

Q: What’s the current situation with Sino-Latin American energy cooperation? Some people think China is plundering energy resources there and uses it as a way to curb the US.

A: China is trying to carry out comprehensive cooperation with Latin American countries and its efforts have been well welcomed by them. The cooperation not only benefits the two parties, but also contributes to global peace, stability and prosperity. It started late and is on a relatively small scale, but has been developing fast. China imported 20.73 million tons of crude oil from Latin American countries in 2010, which accounts for 8.7 percent of China’s total import in that year. Venezuela has become China’s 4th largest oil provider. The two parties will explore cooperation on new energy. It’s totally based on equality and mutual benefit and will do no harm to the third party.

Topic: US view on China-Latin America relationship

Q: The relationship between China and Latin American countries has developed so fast. What do you think of the feeling in the US to this?

A: In recent years, the independence of Latin American countries is growing and its economic growth momentum becomes more diverse than before.

The rapid development of China-Latin America relations is on the basis of mutual benefit and win-win for both sides and is within the needs of Latin American countries’ diversified diplomacy and development strategy.

It will not only benefit development of both, but also contribute to the world’s stability and development.

China and the US have already established a consultation mechanism on Latin-America, and through four different consultations, the two parties have enhanced their mutual trust on this issue.

And the US has repeatedly stressed in their consultations that strengthening relations between China and Latin American countries will be good for Latin-America’s stability and development.

Topic: Chinese workers kidnapped in Colombia

Q: It was reported that several Chinese employees were kidnapped in Colombia by unidentified armed militants. How are they now? Could you release some information about the rescue efforts?

A: Four Chinese workers were kidnapped by some unknown armed militants in Caquetá province in Colombia on June 8, 2011. We have urged the Colombia authority to spare no effort to carry on the rescue work under the premise of guaranteeing the safety of hostages. Since then, the Chinese embassy in Colombia has kept in close cooperation and contact with Colombia’s relevant departments. The rescue work has not finished yet, but the safety of the four hostages can be guaranteed. Chinese companies are facing more risks as they go global on a larger scale. We need to increase our political backup and diplomatic guarantee to them, strengthen the consular protection and safeguard their legitimate interests. Meanwhile we advise Chinese people in Latin America to improve their sense of safety and precaution.

Q: How about China-Mexico relations?

A: China and Mexico are both developing countries and are working at enhancing people’s living standards. They hold the same positions on many international issues and regularly cooperate on these..

China and Mexico have some trade friction over trade imbalance problems, but we hope both sides can deal with the problems reasonably and from a development point of view.

We hope both can take active measures to promote the diverse, comprehensive and healthy development of the two countries’ economic and trade relations.

February 14 marks the 40th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Mexico. We believe the relations can become more comprehensive, steadier and healthier with the two countries’ joint efforts in the future.

Q: Can you talk about the relationship between China and Brazil?

A: Brazil is one of the biggest countries in Latin America and one of the emerging powers in the region. The China-Brazil relationship is one of the most important between China and Latin America.

In recent years, the strategic partnership between China and Brazil has made considerable progress. They maintain a good momentum of high-level exchanges and the political mutual trust is deepened.

Their economical cooperation is also deepening constantly, which has brought tangible benefits to people of both countries. Bilateral trade volume exceeded $80 billion in 2011. Investment cooperation in finance, energy, steel, and machine manufacturing has also made great progress, and is expanding constantly.

China and Brazil have active exchanges in science, technology and culture as well.

The cooperation in the fields of Earth resource satellites, agricultural technology and aviation is progressing continuously. And the cooperation in culture and education is also very close.

China’s Confucius Institute Headquarters opened two Confucius Institutes and a Confucius school in Brazil and Brazil’s important media institutions have sent many journalists to work in China.

China and Brazil are both developing countries and have broad and consistent interests on major international issues. The Chinese government attaches great importance to relations with Brazil and believes the two countries’ cooperation in various fields will make great progress with their joint efforts.

 

Jim Rogers on Euro, Investment Strategy, MF Global – BLOOMBERG

Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) — Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks about his investment strategy and the collapse of MF Global Holdings Ltd. Rogers, speaking with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance Midday,” also discusses the outlook for Brazil. (Source: Bloomberg)

Click here to watch the video direct from Bloomberg

Documental incredible de los paises – BRIC

Documental incredible de los paises – BRIC-episodio-1

Del canal Argentino – Infinito