MUST READ ARTICLE – Obama / US Wake up! Look South for Opportunities

Finally, FINALLY… an article which logically presents the incredible opportunities for the US in Latin America… it’s neighbors — [ http://www.latinbusinesschronicle.com/app/article.aspx?id=4809 ]

Obama it’s time as we say in Peru to “ponte las pilas” and look South to your long ignored neighbors.

” For Obama, a New World to Discover — “The Americas will remain a new world of opportunity for U.S. workers and farmers if Washington is prepared to lead. There’s no time like the present for American business to get a piece of the action — or for President Obama to help open the door.” ~~ Latin America Business Chronicle

Interview with Dr. Kevin P. Gallagher, author of the “Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin America”

Last week, China South America was fortunate enough to meet and interview, via a skype, Dr. Kevin P. Gallagher, author the new book   The Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin American Industrialization (with Roberto Porzecanski).

Dr. Gallagher is a Professor at Boston University in International Relations and is faculty coordinator for Boston University’s Global Development Policy Program. Furthermore, In 2009 he served on the investment subcommittee of the US Department of State’s of the Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy. Professor Gallagher writes regular columns on global economic and development policy for The Guardian, Financial Times, and POLITICO.  He co-chairs the Triple Crisis blog.

In the roughly 30 minutes we talked, we discussed

What motivated you? Dr. Gallagher to write the Sino-Latin American dynamic and motivated him to write The Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin American Industrialization

Mr. Gallagher’s inspiration emerged from the 3 years he spent living in Guadalajara, also known as Mexico’s Silicon Valley.  During his time in Mexico, it became very clear there was a “new kid on the block.”  When speaking with Mexican professionals, the US market and future significance for the Mexican economy had to Mr. Gallagher’s surprise taken a back seat to the emergence of China.

It was around this time in 2005, Dr. Gallagher began to investigate what the rise of China meant for both Mexico, and the greater Latin America region.  Would China’s high speed growth and fast rising competitiveness undermine Latin America’s capacity to develop their own competitive industries, or would China’s rise breed new possibilities and growth in Latin American countries?  This formed foundation for his book, which you can click here to purchase a copy of.

Next we discussed the general importance of the growth of Sino-Latin American relations and trade.

Similar to the perspectives often presented here at ChinaSouthAmerica.com, Dr. Gallagher feels the rise of China and its penetration in Latin America comes with a significant amount of uncertainty for the region, offering both opportunities and dangers.  The opportunities are clearer for some countries than others.

For major commodity producers down in South America; Venezuela, Peru, Chile and Argentina the rewards are being felt tangibly, and NOW.  China has presented itself as a new market for their raw materials exports, and Chinese demand has helped push the prices of raw materials to record highs.  However, the danger is that history may well repeat itself if the income generated from selling raw materials to China are not re-deployed efficiently and strategically to create sustainable, globally competitive industries.

The panorama for Mexico and Brazil, Latin America’s economic giants share some similarities because both countries have well a relatively broad range of developed, competitive industrial sectors.  In this case, China is a challenger to their own industries.  The positive and negatives effects of being forced to compete with their Chinese counterparts is debatable, but thus it seems Mexican and Brazilian companies have managed to meet the challenge and it seems Chinese competition will in the long-run catalyze innovation and economies of scale.

On the other hand, there are also major differences for Mexico and Brazil when considering China.  The major difference, and one that is impossible to overlook, is undoubtedly Mexico’s proximity to the United States.    Mexico competes almost directly with China’s manufacturing sector.  The major factor which will dictate how the future unfolds concerns how well Mexico can capitalize off the geographic competitive advantage of being at the door step of the world’s largest consumer market.  It will be important to monitor:

• Rising wages in China vs. Mexico.
• Raw material costs
• The total costs of producing increasingly sophisticated manufactured goods in both countries vs. total time it takes to produce and deliver the goods to the end buyers.

What’s next? Right now the majority of interaction between China and Latin America is occurring at a two levels—government to government, and major company to company.  What are your perspectives on the future of growth of a third level of exchange—that being personal ones between Chinese and Latin Americans down on the ground in both China and Latin America?  What types of opportunities does the future hold for the next generation that is able to form these links?

Like your author of ChinaSouthAmerica.com, Dr. Gallagher believes this to be the “million dollar question,” and one that is not easy to answer.  We will sadly have to wait for his next book which will focus on this question, and which your author hopes to help Mr. Gallagher answer when the time comes.

To conclude, I asked Dr. Gallagher about if he had any thoughts to share on the specific countries of Peru, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia– the countries which your author most closely follows.

“These are a very diverse set of countries, and I wouldn’t dare generalize across the entire set of them.  The one thing I can say about each of these is that in terms of copper (Peru and Chile), Iron (Brazil), soy (Brazil and Argentina), and crude oil (Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela) this particular set of Latin American nations and the respective commodities is very strategic for China.  China will continue to purchase imports of these commodities and to invest heavily in them.  These country’s governments should be strategic in return.  In order to get the broadest set of benefits from this new market player in China, Latin Americans have to see to it that they can also provide stable supplies over time, create jobs for their people, and manage their exchange rates so that commodities exports don’t crowd out more productive and employment creating activity.  If these nations see China as an opportunity, by bargaining hard with the Chinese and put in place parallel policies in terms of jobs, industrialization, and environmental policy, China may turn out to be a boon.“

As I am currently writing this post from China, where this book is not yet available, I unfortunately have not yet been able to get my hands on a copy of this book. In the 30 minutes I spoke with Dr. Gallagher he exhibited great insight on all that is the growth of Sino-Latin American relations and economic exchange.  I look forward to reading the book for myself after I get my hands on a copy in January when I travel to the US and South America.  If you the reader seek a rich and comprehensive analysis on the growth of China and Latin America’s relations, ChinaSouthAmerica highly recommends you pick up your own copy of The Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin American Industrialization.

CLICK HERE to buy your own copy (hardcover) from Amazon.com of The Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin American Industrialization

or, CLICK HERE for the soft cover edition

China’s Kerui Group chooses Peru as its base for greater South American market

President of Shandong Kerui Group Holding Corporation, Yang Xian - Andina

Andina News Agency reports Chinese corporation Kerui Group has expressed its interest in entering the Peruvian market by setting up an oil and gas equipment plant with an initial investment of US$10 million.

This supports my long standing opinion that Peru is perfectly positioned geographically, politically and economically to emerge as “China & Asia’s gateway to South America.”

The President of Kerui Group Holding Corporation, Yang Xian, seems to agree.

“This venture into our market aims to meet oil equipment demands of countries such as Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela, Bolivia and Brazil.”

“Politics and economic activity in Peru is better than in other Latin American countries such as Venezuela. We can strengthen our presence in Latin America from there, that would be our next task.”

Yang made these comments during the visit of Peruvian entrepreneurs to 3rd China International Petroleum and Petrochemical Equipment & Technology Exhibition (CIPEE) 2010 taking place in Dongying.

Currently around 50% of Kerui Group’s annual production is exported to U.S. and other countries such as Canada, Saudi Arabia, India, Russia, Kazajstán as well as other 30 countries in Middle East, Asia and Africa.  This marks their latest move to expand their market reach.

9th China International Silver Conference (CISC), Oct 15-17

Silver - Wikicommons

The 9th China International Silver Conference (CISC) will be held this week ,October 15-17.  Major players from across the industry will be heading to Beijing to partake and climb the Fragrant Hills, a beautiful mountain landscape on the outskirts of Beijing which your author climbed back in the fall of 2006.

Here’s some background information on the event. and if this isn’t enough feel free to visit http://silver2010.antaike.com/ for additional info.

As countries around the world have taken a proactive fiscal policy and monetary stimulus, as a result of the global financial crisis, economies have started to show signs of moderate recovery. At the end of 2009, international commodity markets began to rebound; gold and silver were no exception. The world economy continues to suggest complexity and uncertainty and the European sovereign credit crisis is deepening. Many analysts suggest that the price of gold and silver will continue to rise.

In 2010, two principles of global economic recovery are industrial resurgence and the gradual withdraw of government stimulus policy. Governments, under the overall objective background of improving global industrial structure, encouraging economic development methodologies, and controlling inflation, are exploring the new international financial state of affairs. In this post-crisis era, it is also important to grasp potential new financial regulations. The 9th CISC will examine new trends in the global silver market, and discuss ways market participants can help further accelerate silver industrial restructuring and revitalization.

Accordingly, the 2010 China International Silver Conference, will be hosted by Gems & Jewelry Trade Association of China, and co-hosted by China General Chamber of Commerce, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China Chamber of Commerce of Metals Minerals & Chemicals Importers and Exporters, and the Silver Institute. The CISC is will be organized by Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd, and will be held in Beijing, at the Fragrant Hill Empark Hotel (five stars) on October 15th-17th, 2010.

9th China International Silver Conference (CISC) will invite important national ministries and leading global industry executives, as well as experts in China and abroad to discuss macroeconomics and the global financial situation, silver industry policy orientation, industry upgrades and technical progress. Additionally, Oct 16th is the Double Ninth Festival in the Chinese lunar calendar, which is an auspicious day worthy of celebration. The custom of ascending a height to avoid epidemics was passed down from long time ago. CISC organizers in particular are looking forward to a climbing tour to Fragrance Hill in
accordance with this event.

Conference Theme: Focus on Beijing, Explore in Development, Open up Interspace
Conference Date: Oct 15th-17th, 2010 Beijing, China
Conference Address: Fragrant Hill Empark Hotel (five stars), Beijing

Conference Scale: 300-400 attendees
Conference Attendee: Silver and precious metals producers, consumers, traders, stock and bond brokers, investors, researchers, media and etc
Conference Format: Reports, Discussion and Activities

Hosted by： Gems & Jewelry Trade Association of China
China General Chamber of Commerce
China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association
China Chamber of Commerce of Metals Minerals & Chemicals Importers and Exporters
The Silver Institute

Organized by：Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd.
Co-hosted by：Henan Jiyuan Jinli Smelting Co., Ltd.

South American Cocaine??? Spain continues to “deal gold,” as it has since the 16th century

To realize why I titled this post the way I did, you must for your own good watch this Reuters video which gives a good outline of the gold market to the very end.  Anyone who has ever walked the streets of Madrid or Barcelona between 1995-2010, knows the image of a Peruvian/ Bolivian/ other South Americans with big card board signs which say : “we buy and sell gold/silver.”

Well, like the Japanese, Spain is also inventing machines/ robots to do the work– the work being, the exchange/ commerce of gold bars.

For the record I know very little about the machine and welcome clarification from any reader.  However, the fact that Reuters mentions Spain as the first country to do this, makes me think back to the Spanish history lessons I learned from my mother and grandmother growing up as a Peruvian-American in NYC–which are of the same yolk as the history lessons taught to US-Americans about the British/ French in North American schools.

I had to learn this “Iberian” history from my family, because the US public school system gives two $h!ts about the fact that more than half the American CONTINENT (singular) was not actually colonized by English speakers.

Good evening to all from Shanghai.

China to create $5 billion fund to invest in Latin America

In line with China’s outbound investment strategies in Africa and Asia, China is now planning to create a $5 billion usd investment fund for Latin American investments.

The funds target investments will include, infrastructure (probably to help the Chinese get commodities out), agriculture, mining and energy.

Read more in Spanish from Argentinean DERF Agencia de Noticias.

Bolivia’s Lithium reserves

Oct. 30 (REUTERS) Bolivia taps into vast reserve of lithium, a potential power source for electronics and politics.   Katharine Jackson, Reuters.

South America: An Analysis of Arms Races and Regional Geopolitics

A insightful analysis on the ongoing arms build up occurring in South America was released on Tuesday, October 20 by Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA). You can access the full analysis, written by research fellow Alex Sanchez if you sign up to be a (free) member of MercoPress.

Img: MercoPress

MercoPress is an independent news agency based in Montevideo, Uruguay focused on delivering news related to South America, Mercosur-member countries and covering an area of influence which includes the South Atlantic and insular territories.

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In mid-September, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton critiqued Venezuela’s leader Hugo Chavez for his ongoing purchases of mostly Russian military equipment, arguing that this could trigger an arms race in South America. The statement has added fuel to the ongoing discussions about what form South America’s rearmament is taking and what this could come to mean for the security of the region.

The aim of this paper is to discuss the major arms purchases now going on in South America and the likelihood of inter-state war breaking out as the result. Ongoing reports about major purchases by Venezuela, Brazil and Chile tend to blur the actual geo-security situation in the region, as several countries, with Argentina as the most prominent example, have carried out only limited military acquisitions. The common perception is that an arms race raises the possibility of inter-state war; however, the reality in South America (and Central America as well) is that inter-state warfare has seldom occurred since World War II. Additionally, regarding the arms race in South America, it is misleading to assume that all South American countries are carrying out their arm purchases with the same gusto as Brazil, Chile and Venezuela.

It is generally assumed that South America is either already engaged in an arms race or is about to enter one. This is somewhat inconsistent because the start of an arms race is not easily defined. It could also be argued that what is occurring is not so much a general arms race as it is a product of certain militaries capitalizing on weak civilian governments (an updated version of former Uruguayan President Bordaberry in 1973) to increase their defense budgets. Furthermore, in spite of domestic security issues in several South American countries, most notably the insurgent movements in Colombia and Peru as well as occasional inter-state tensions, the reality is that inter-state wars in the region have been notably scarce in the past few decades, which raises the question: is interstate warfare necessarily the future of South America? The final section of this article will discuss whether an arms race could lead to general warfare.

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Click here to access the full analysis from MercoPress

Bolivia to buy Chinese jets to battle drugs reports Bloomberg

Coca Leaves Being Dryed

Bolivia plans to buy six Chinese light military aircraft worth nearly $58 million to fight drug traffickers in the world’s No. 3 cocaine producer, leftist President Evo Morales said on Saturday.

“Last week we issued a supreme decree to … acquire six K-8 aircraft from China,” said Morales in a speech in La Paz to mark the 52nd anniversary of the Bolivian air force.

Morales said his government decided to acquire the K-8, a jet trainer that can be used as a light attack aircraft, after the U.S. government blocked the country from buying similar planes from the Czech Republic.

Click here to read the complete article from Reuters

Newswire: South America

[Brazil] – Brazil strengthens state control over offshore oil reserves – Xinhua
Brazil announced on Monday new oil exploration rules to increase state control over its recently discovered offshore oil reserves.

Under the plan, the state-owned oil and gas giant Petrobras will be the sole operator of the new oil reserves. It will also have a minimum 30-percent stake in all future projects in the pre-salt layer fields.

Brazil Tries to Maximize Offshore Oil Bonanza– Latin America Herald Tribine
Brazilian President Lula revealed the government’s plans to make Brazil one of the top 10 oil producers in the world and develop what he believes are the world’s 9th largest oil reserves, but his announcement of increased state control and further equity sales shook markets, causing Petrobras to lose $7 billion in value in one day.

Petrobras Loses $7 Billion Value as Lula Seeks Stake — Bloomberg
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s plans for the development of the country’s offshore oil fields stripped Petroleo Brasileiro SA investors of $7 billion in a day.

The proposal, announced yesterday, may allow the state to boost its stake in the company and ensure most income from oil exploration “stays in the hands of our people,” Lula said at a press conference in Brasilia. Petrobras, as the Rio de Janeiro- based company is known, led the Bovespa stock index to the biggest drop in the Americas yesterday after the announcement.

[Venezuela] — Chavez Says Venezuela Will Continue Oil Exports to U.S. – Latin America Herald Tribine
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said that his country will continue exporting oil to the United States because it is in the Andean nation’s interest.

Chavez said in a statement published in the Lima daily El Comercio that “many people don’t know” that Venezuelan state oil giant PDVSA, through its Citgo subsidiary, has seven large refineries and more than 10,000 service stations on U.S. soil.

“Venezuela can’t take a decision against ourselves. We send the oil to our refineries and to our distribution systems in the United States,” he said.

Caracas Stock Market Up 3% for the Week — Up 41% for the Year — Latin America Herald Tribine
The Caracas Stock Index rose 3.16% for the week to close at 49,507 mostly on the back on the continued rise of Sivensa shares on continued optimism over the buyback of its shares to be considered at its shareholders meeting next week. Sivensa shares rose sharply, closing at Bs. 16.5 for a 37.5% rise.

[Peru] — Two Wounded in Rebel Attack, Peruvian TV Reports — Latin American Herald Tribine
At least two soldiers were wounded in an attack apparently mounted by Shining Path guerrillas Monday against a counterinsurgency base in central Peru’s Junin province, Canal N television reported.

The guerrillas opened fire around 3:30 a.m. on the Jose Olaya base in the strife-torn Valley of the Apurimac and Ene rivers, known as the VRAE region, Canal N said.

[Bolivia] – Morales Named “World Hero of Mother Earth” by UN General Assembly– Latin America Herald Tribine
The president of the United Nations General Assembly, Rev. Miguel D’Escoto Brockmann, on Saturday declared Bolivian President Evo Morales as “World Hero of Mother Earth” in a ceremony at the presidential palace in this capital.

With a medal and a parchment scroll, the General Assembly of the United Nations Organization named Morales “the maximum exponent and paradigm of love for Mother Earth” in the resolution for his decoration that was read during the ceremony.

Bolivia Cries Foul Over Peru Plans for Drilling in Titicaca — Latin America Herald Tribine
Bolivian President Evo Morales’ government will present a formal complaint to Peru over its plans to drill for oil in Lake Titicaca without consulting La Paz, state-run news agency ABI reported.

Hydrocarbons Minister Oscar Coca sent Bolivia’s Foreign Ministry a note requesting that a formal complaint be made since the body of water straddles the border between the two nations, ABI said.

“Since Lake Titicaca is a bi-national area, it’s obvious that there can’t be unilateral actions” and therefore the matter requires a diplomatic solution, Coca said.

[Cuba] — Cuba endeavors to raise farm output amid economic downturn — Xinhua
Pressured by a global economic crisis and a stern U.S. economic blockade that has lasted nearly half a century, Cuba is actively seeking ways to boost its agricultural production.

The measures include turning over land close to cities to residents to plow, replacing fuel-burning tractors with oxen, redistributing fallow land and raising the prices of state-regulated farm products.