Peru-China FTA to induce 10,000+ Peruvian companies to pursue exports to China

Peru and China’s bilateral Free Trade Agreement became effective March 1st.   According to officials at Peru’s Foreign Trade and Tourism Ministry (Mincetur) the agreement could potentially prompt some 10,000+ companies to begin exporting to China.  Read more about it in this article from Andina

All in all, the official message expressed by major media is that trade with China = good. I personally this doubt this is the full story. I’m pretty sure a great many Peruvian industries are not so happy they will be competing with “made in China.”

For example, I’m sure the companies which make all the cloths sold at Lima’s Gamarra Market are shaking in their boots right about now.

On the other side, as Michael Reid explains in his book, The Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America’s Soul, the rise of China and other countries which offer Latin America countries alternative markets for their exports has empowered Latin America with far more freedom to develop on their own terms than every before in history.  With new markets, Latin America is no longer as heavily dependent on the United States, and China is at the center of this shift.

There’s always two sides to the story and I’m barley scratching the surface here.  I’m sure readers from Peru to China have many other reasons to argue both sides of the equation.

The growth of stock markets in Latin America

The Latin Business Chronicle published a story today which technically, was supposed to focus on the growth of Colombia’s stock exchange and explain why it was the regions best performer last year.

In addition to Colombia, the article also shares data complied by Economatica on the growth of the other major stock exchanges in the region, which is what CSA will be sharing with you today.  To read the full article from the Latin Business Chronicle click here.

Colombia – Best performer in Latam last year, IGBC (Colombia’s benchmark) stock index has grown in value by 927.9% during the past 10 years, and average decline in value of transactions in 2008 was 2.3%—lower than all other countries in the region

Brazil – Latin America’s largest stock market, Ibovespa (Brazil’s benchmark) stock index has grown 301.3% during the past 10 years, and the average decline of transitions in 2008 compared with 2009 was 13.6%.

Mexico – IPC (major benchmark index in Mexico) has grown 250.5% during the past 10 years, and the average decline in transactions last year was 13.9%

Venezuela – The Caracas stock index has grown by 916.5% during the past 10 years, and the average decline in transactions was 29.5% last year—the second worst in Latin America.

Argentina – The Merval inces has grown by 321.3% during the past ten years, and had the worst average decline in transactions last year, suffering a decline of 54.4%.

Peru – The Lima stock index (IGBVL) has been one of the regions best performing in the past few years.  Seeing growth of 671.1% during the past 10 years, and a decline in average transactions last year of 21%.

Chile – Last but not least, Chile’s IPSA index has grown by 218.8% over the past 10 years, and the average decline in transactions last year was a mere 3.6%-second best next to Colombia.

China-Peru FTA goes into force this February

China’s second FTA with a Latin American nation will become active this February 2010. A mile stone for both country’s, the agreement seeks to boost bilateral trade to new levels.

Here are the basic facts and forecasts, provided via this article from Nasdaq.com. For the record, author Sophie Kevany, is a superb journalist who is actually based in Peru. This article does not do justice to her credo of true investigative journalism I have read in the past, but no less is always a good source for all that is Peruvian finance.

Check out her other articles on the WSJ, Decanter (yes she even writes about Peruvian wines and spirits), and well, just google her name and you’ll be greeted with a swarm of informative pieces about Peru and the greater South American region.

LIMA -(Dow Jones)- Peru’s free trade agreement with China is set to come into force early February, and it is expected to boost total trade values to an estimated $8 billion in its first year.

The treaty was ratified earlier this month by a supreme government decree, meaning Peru’s congress will not vote on it, state newspaper El Peruano said Wednesday.

The treaty excludes so called “sensitive products” such as textiles, shoes and clothing, Peru’s Vice Minister for Trade and Tourism, Eduardo Ferreyros, told El Peruano.

Trade between the two countries is expected to total about $5.5 billion in 2009. Of that, exports to China from Peru are expected to reach $3 billion, Ferreyros told state news agency Andina, while imports from China should total about $2.5 billion.

-By Sophie Kevany, Dow Jones Newswires; 51-198-903-8043; sophie.kevany@ dowjones.com

South American Stock Markets; weekly roundup

EPU (Peru’s ETF) now trading on Mexico’s stock exchange

Atención a todos los inversionistas mexicanos. ETF del Perú, ahora se cotiza en la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores!

Now lets compare the two ETF’s.

Mexico – EPU.mx (Bolsa)

EPU.mx - Mexican Stock Exchange

United States – EPU (NYSE)

EPU - New York Stock Exchange

Newswire: Asia-Pacific

international.gc.ca

U.S.’s Treasury’s Geithner to attend Singapore APEC meeting – Reuters

WASHINGTON, Oct 23 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner travels to Singapore to attend a meeting of finance ministers who are members of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum for one day next month.

China Minmetals eyes gold mines in Australia, Canada – Reuters

* Company to start construction at Peru copper mine next yr

* Production at Peru mine scheduled to begin in 2012 (Adds background, bylines)

By Rujun Shen and Joseph Chaney

TIANJIN, Oct 22 (Reuters) – Chinese state-owned metals trader China Minmetals Corp. [CHMIN.UL] is looking to buy gold mines in Australia and Canada, a senior executive said on Thursday.

Huang Dongmei, deputy general manager of China Minmetals Exploration and Development Ltd, made the remarks at an industry forum in China’s port city of Tianjin.

Separately, a Minmetals executive at the China Mining conference here said on Wednesday that the company would launch construction at its Galeno copper mine in Peru next year, with production due to start in 2012. [ID:nPEK200915]

Ecuador Seeks Cash to End Three-Year Oil Output Drop (Update1) – Bloomberg

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) — Ecuador, the smallest member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is seeking to attract investment from state-run companies in Latin America, Russia and China to reverse a three-year drop in crude output.

Ecuador is forging alliances to explore and produce crude as lower investment by privately-owned companies causes production to drop as much as 6.6 percent this year, Julio Gonzalez, undersecretary of hydrocarbons policy at the Ministry of Non-Renewable Natural Resources, said in an interview.

“The government’s priority is to do this with state companies,” Gonzalez said yesterday at the ministry in Quito.

Kevin Rudd’s vision for Asia-Pacific community evolves – The Australian

KEVIN Rudd’s concept of an Asia-Pacific community by 2020 has been canvassed at the weekend’s East Asia summit in Thailand together with a rival vision from new Japanese leader Yukio Hatoyama.

East Asian leaders meeting in Hua Hin yesterday discussed the broad regional architecture, with the Prime Minister promoting his plan both at the formal leaders’ meeting and in a series on bilateral discussions.

“What I detect across the region is an openness to a discussion about how we evolve our regional architecture into the future,” Mr Rudd said yesterday.

“It’s important that we are in a conscious discussion and a conscious process to evolve options for regional institutions in the future rather than just sitting back and waiting for big problems to emerge.”

Former President of Peru, Alejandro Toledo criticizes FTA with China

AgenciaPeru.tv — Spanish news bite of former President Alejandro Toledo of Peru.

Toledo comments on Peru’s FTA with China

Former President Alejandro Toledo criticized the free trade agreement that Peru and China signed in April this year. Toledo was at the Club de la Banca in San Isidro, Lima this afternoon after talks with a group of businessmen on the financial crisis and opportunities for Peruvians.

Remember, Toledo was instrumental in rebuilding Peru’s market economy and in promoting the signing of the Free Trade Agreement between the United States and Peru. It is curious as to why a man who was once labeled a lap dog of US policy in promoting free trade and free market economics is now expressing concern about Peru’s FTA with China.

If you can understand Spanish I suggest watching this short video to get his full commentary. If not, the general gist of his message is that Peru simply needs to be careful and help empower Peru’s micro-enterprises with the skills necessary to compete Chinese labor and cheap manufacturing.

Second, in the midst of this crisis, Peru can not forget the pains and ills of the everyday Peruvian on the street. Although the agreement with China is something which can potentially bring long term investment and growth in trade, it is important to not forget about the Peruvians which will be affected (economically) by the growth in exchange with China.

China Minmetals to begin production in Peruvian copper mine by 2012

The China Daily reported yesterday,  China’s Minmetals Corp., has announced plans to begin construction of the Galeno copper mine in Peru next year and have the mine operational by 2012.

The mine is jointly owned by China Minmetals and Jiangxi Copper (0358: HK). early last year, is believed to have 20 years of mine life and an annual production estimate of 144,000 tonnes concentrate.

As the chart below exhibits, Jiangxi Copper seems to be riding the upswing in copper markets.  Year to date (YTD), Jiangxi’s shares (traded in Hong Kong) have jumped from around 3 HKD to about 20 HKD as of its close today.

According to the the assistant president of China Minmetals, Zhang Shoulian “The company is increasingly looking to the South American markets for mine resources investment. Copper was its main focus, apart from other metals like iron, zinc, nickel and lead.”

Click here to read a more on this topic from a related article at chinamining.org.

South America: An Analysis of Arms Races and Regional Geopolitics

A insightful analysis on the ongoing arms build up occurring in South America was released on Tuesday, October 20 by Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA). You can access the full analysis, written by research fellow Alex Sanchez if you sign up to be a (free) member of MercoPress.

Img: MercoPress

MercoPress is an independent news agency based in Montevideo, Uruguay focused on delivering news related to South America, Mercosur-member countries and covering an area of influence which includes the South Atlantic and insular territories.

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In mid-September, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton critiqued Venezuela’s leader Hugo Chavez for his ongoing purchases of mostly Russian military equipment, arguing that this could trigger an arms race in South America. The statement has added fuel to the ongoing discussions about what form South America’s rearmament is taking and what this could come to mean for the security of the region.

The aim of this paper is to discuss the major arms purchases now going on in South America and the likelihood of inter-state war breaking out as the result. Ongoing reports about major purchases by Venezuela, Brazil and Chile tend to blur the actual geo-security situation in the region, as several countries, with Argentina as the most prominent example, have carried out only limited military acquisitions. The common perception is that an arms race raises the possibility of inter-state war; however, the reality in South America (and Central America as well) is that inter-state warfare has seldom occurred since World War II. Additionally, regarding the arms race in South America, it is misleading to assume that all South American countries are carrying out their arm purchases with the same gusto as Brazil, Chile and Venezuela.

It is generally assumed that South America is either already engaged in an arms race or is about to enter one. This is somewhat inconsistent because the start of an arms race is not easily defined. It could also be argued that what is occurring is not so much a general arms race as it is a product of certain militaries capitalizing on weak civilian governments (an updated version of former Uruguayan President Bordaberry in 1973) to increase their defense budgets. Furthermore, in spite of domestic security issues in several South American countries, most notably the insurgent movements in Colombia and Peru as well as occasional inter-state tensions, the reality is that inter-state wars in the region have been notably scarce in the past few decades, which raises the question: is interstate warfare necessarily the future of South America? The final section of this article will discuss whether an arms race could lead to general warfare.

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Click here to access the full analysis from MercoPress

Newswire: Latin America

Argentina’s trade surplus contracts 42.8% during September – MercoPress
Argentina’s September trade surplus narrowed 42.8% from the same month a year ago, with exports falling even faster than imports, the government said this week. September’s 926 million US dollars surplus, which fell short of analysts’ expectations, is the smallest since January.

Brazil Soybean Growers Speed Up Planting on Rains, Safras Says – Bloomberg
Soybean growers in Brazil, the world’s second- largest producer, are speeding up planting of the oilseed as above-average rains improve soil conditions, Safras & Mercados analyst Flavio Franca Jr. said.

Soybean planting was 17 percent complete as of Oct. 16, compared with 8 percent a year earlier and an average of 5 percent in the past five years, said Franca Jr., who is based in Porto Alegre, Brazil.

Brazil Bank Keeps Rate, Signals No Increase Imminent – Bloomberg
Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) — Brazil’s central bank kept its key interest rate at a record low last night and said its level was “consistent” with a non-inflationary recovery, signaling that no increase in borrowing costs is imminent.

The bank, in a statement accompanying the board’s unanimous decision to keep the benchmark rate at 8.75 percent, repeated word-for-word the communique issued Sept. 2 when it paused after five straight cuts this year.

Colombian drug lord gets 45 years – Reuters

Cocaine kingpin, Diego Montoya, the former head of Colombia’s Norte del Valle cartel is sentenced in a Miami court to 45 years in prison.

Pemex May Renegotiate Oil-Service Accords, Minister Kessel Says – Bloomberg
Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) — Petroleos Mexicanos, Latin America’s largest oil producer, may seek to renegotiate oilfield-service contracts with companies such as Halliburton Co., Schlumberger Ltd. and Weatherford International Ltd. to try and boost output.

New laws allow state-owned Pemex, as the company is known, to offer performance-based contracts, Mexican Energy Minister Georgina Kessel said yesterday in an interview in Mexico City.

Peru’s BCP to Sell Benchmark Dollar Bonds in Overseas Markets – Bloomberg BCP, as the bank is known, hired Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. to arrange the bond sale, said the person, who declined to be identified because terms aren’t set. The company will begin marketing the offering Oct. 26. A benchmark issue is typically for at least $500 million.

Uruguay’s presidential election next Sunday too tight to call – MercoPress
Uruguay’s coming Sunday presidential election is proving to be more nerve-racking and difficult to forecast than anticipated, with the ruling coalition just a few inches away from repeating in spite of the falling performance of the main opposition candidate.