MUST READ ARTICLE – Obama / US Wake up! Look South for Opportunities

Finally, FINALLY… an article which logically presents the incredible opportunities for the US in Latin America… it’s neighbors — [ http://www.latinbusinesschronicle.com/app/article.aspx?id=4809 ]

Obama it’s time as we say in Peru to “ponte las pilas” and look South to your long ignored neighbors.

” For Obama, a New World to Discover — “The Americas will remain a new world of opportunity for U.S. workers and farmers if Washington is prepared to lead. There’s no time like the present for American business to get a piece of the action — or for President Obama to help open the door.” ~~ Latin America Business Chronicle

Latin American in 2011

I came across a few interesting articles today which attempt to outline what we can expect, for the better or worse, from the greater Latin American region this year.

Latin America in 2011: the year ahead – The Global Post

FACTBOX-Key political risks to watch in Latin America – Reuters

Latin America 2011: Expert Q&A – The Latin Business Chronicle

Stable Outlook for Latin America Oil and Gas Industry in 2011 – BUSINESS WIRE / Fitch Ratings

Enjoy

Interview with Dr. Kevin P. Gallagher, author of the “Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin America”

Last week, China South America was fortunate enough to meet and interview, via a skype, Dr. Kevin P. Gallagher, author the new book   The Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin American Industrialization (with Roberto Porzecanski).

Dr. Gallagher is a Professor at Boston University in International Relations and is faculty coordinator for Boston University’s Global Development Policy Program. Furthermore, In 2009 he served on the investment subcommittee of the US Department of State’s of the Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy. Professor Gallagher writes regular columns on global economic and development policy for The Guardian, Financial Times, and POLITICO.  He co-chairs the Triple Crisis blog.

In the roughly 30 minutes we talked, we discussed

What motivated you? Dr. Gallagher to write the Sino-Latin American dynamic and motivated him to write The Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin American Industrialization

Mr. Gallagher’s inspiration emerged from the 3 years he spent living in Guadalajara, also known as Mexico’s Silicon Valley.  During his time in Mexico, it became very clear there was a “new kid on the block.”  When speaking with Mexican professionals, the US market and future significance for the Mexican economy had to Mr. Gallagher’s surprise taken a back seat to the emergence of China.

It was around this time in 2005, Dr. Gallagher began to investigate what the rise of China meant for both Mexico, and the greater Latin America region.  Would China’s high speed growth and fast rising competitiveness undermine Latin America’s capacity to develop their own competitive industries, or would China’s rise breed new possibilities and growth in Latin American countries?  This formed foundation for his book, which you can click here to purchase a copy of.

Next we discussed the general importance of the growth of Sino-Latin American relations and trade.

Similar to the perspectives often presented here at ChinaSouthAmerica.com, Dr. Gallagher feels the rise of China and its penetration in Latin America comes with a significant amount of uncertainty for the region, offering both opportunities and dangers.  The opportunities are clearer for some countries than others.

For major commodity producers down in South America; Venezuela, Peru, Chile and Argentina the rewards are being felt tangibly, and NOW.  China has presented itself as a new market for their raw materials exports, and Chinese demand has helped push the prices of raw materials to record highs.  However, the danger is that history may well repeat itself if the income generated from selling raw materials to China are not re-deployed efficiently and strategically to create sustainable, globally competitive industries.

The panorama for Mexico and Brazil, Latin America’s economic giants share some similarities because both countries have well a relatively broad range of developed, competitive industrial sectors.  In this case, China is a challenger to their own industries.  The positive and negatives effects of being forced to compete with their Chinese counterparts is debatable, but thus it seems Mexican and Brazilian companies have managed to meet the challenge and it seems Chinese competition will in the long-run catalyze innovation and economies of scale.

On the other hand, there are also major differences for Mexico and Brazil when considering China.  The major difference, and one that is impossible to overlook, is undoubtedly Mexico’s proximity to the United States.    Mexico competes almost directly with China’s manufacturing sector.  The major factor which will dictate how the future unfolds concerns how well Mexico can capitalize off the geographic competitive advantage of being at the door step of the world’s largest consumer market.  It will be important to monitor:

• Rising wages in China vs. Mexico.
• Raw material costs
• The total costs of producing increasingly sophisticated manufactured goods in both countries vs. total time it takes to produce and deliver the goods to the end buyers.

What’s next? Right now the majority of interaction between China and Latin America is occurring at a two levels—government to government, and major company to company.  What are your perspectives on the future of growth of a third level of exchange—that being personal ones between Chinese and Latin Americans down on the ground in both China and Latin America?  What types of opportunities does the future hold for the next generation that is able to form these links?

Like your author of ChinaSouthAmerica.com, Dr. Gallagher believes this to be the “million dollar question,” and one that is not easy to answer.  We will sadly have to wait for his next book which will focus on this question, and which your author hopes to help Mr. Gallagher answer when the time comes.

To conclude, I asked Dr. Gallagher about if he had any thoughts to share on the specific countries of Peru, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia– the countries which your author most closely follows.

“These are a very diverse set of countries, and I wouldn’t dare generalize across the entire set of them.  The one thing I can say about each of these is that in terms of copper (Peru and Chile), Iron (Brazil), soy (Brazil and Argentina), and crude oil (Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela) this particular set of Latin American nations and the respective commodities is very strategic for China.  China will continue to purchase imports of these commodities and to invest heavily in them.  These country’s governments should be strategic in return.  In order to get the broadest set of benefits from this new market player in China, Latin Americans have to see to it that they can also provide stable supplies over time, create jobs for their people, and manage their exchange rates so that commodities exports don’t crowd out more productive and employment creating activity.  If these nations see China as an opportunity, by bargaining hard with the Chinese and put in place parallel policies in terms of jobs, industrialization, and environmental policy, China may turn out to be a boon.“

As I am currently writing this post from China, where this book is not yet available, I unfortunately have not yet been able to get my hands on a copy of this book. In the 30 minutes I spoke with Dr. Gallagher he exhibited great insight on all that is the growth of Sino-Latin American relations and economic exchange.  I look forward to reading the book for myself after I get my hands on a copy in January when I travel to the US and South America.  If you the reader seek a rich and comprehensive analysis on the growth of China and Latin America’s relations, ChinaSouthAmerica highly recommends you pick up your own copy of The Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin American Industrialization.

CLICK HERE to buy your own copy (hardcover) from Amazon.com of The Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin American Industrialization

or, CLICK HERE for the soft cover edition

BRIC Love; Worthy reads about China-Brazil/Latam & India-Latam

1. China Investments: Brazil Top Focus

Brazil and natural resources are the main focus for China’s investments in Latin America writes Kevin P. Gallagher

China’s foreign investment into Africa has been generating a great deal of controversy. Some argue that China is becoming the new colonial power over Africa, others see China as a key source of foreign exchange that may finally help spur long-run economic growth in Africa [...click above to access the full story].

2. India Exports to Latin America

Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Jyotiraditya Scindia has emphasised the need for a shift in export from northern hemisphere to southern hemisphere in line with south-south cooperation. He said that while advanced nations would show an import growth of around 0.9-1 per cent in future, developing economies would exhibit an import growth between 4.5 and 5 per cent.

Mr. Scindia was speaking at a function organised by the Federation of Indian Export Organisations here on Tuesday to present the Niryat Shree and the Niryat Bandhu awards 2008-09. The awards honour outstanding exporters, export promotion councils, commodity boards, export development authorities, banks and other agencies.

Highlighting the potential and complementaries of economies between India and Latin America, the Minister said India needed to augment its exports to Latin American countries as these were vibrant economies. “The government will chalk out a strategy to facilitate exports and investment after an in-depth study which will be commissioned shortly,” he added [...click above to access the full story].

Venezuela bans violent photos – Reuters

Reuters Video – Aug 19 – The government says a ban on newspapers printing violent images is to protect children, but critics say it’s censorship ahead of upcoming polls.

Colombia’s ICJ threat to Venezuela (Reuters)

Jul 23 – Colombian Attorney General says that Colombia could potentially use evidence of Venezuelan support for rebels at the International Court of Justice. (Reuters)

Must read article about Sino-Latin American relations

A must read article for anyone interested in Sino-Latin American relations was published today on SeekingAlpha’s website.  It is written by Erik Bethel, one of the four founders and CEO of Sino-Latin Capital.  I highly recommend it to anyone even mildly interested in the growth of Sino-Latin American relations.

Click here to access the full article direct from SeekingAlpha.

Travel to any country in Latin America and you will see the visible hand of China at work: a computer manufacturing plant in Mexico, a copper mine in Peru, a football stadium in Costa Rica. In the year 2007, the thought of China in Latin America would have appeared, at best, improbable. But in a three-year stretch, China signed free trade agreements with Chile, Peru and Costa Rica, inked billions of dollars worth of deals in oil and mining projects throughout the region, and supplanted the US as Brazil’s biggest trading partner. Once almost unseen in Latin America, China’s bilateral trade has risen from $12bn in 2000 to well over $150bn today.

Given the importance of its new Asian friend, Latin Americans are rolling out the red carpets to Chinese business delegations and jumping on planes not only to Beijing but also to Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Tianjin.

Rationale Behind Chinese Investments in Latin America [...]

Please visit SeekingAlpha to read the full article

China to create $5 billion fund to invest in Latin America

In line with China’s outbound investment strategies in Africa and Asia, China is now planning to create a $5 billion usd investment fund for Latin American investments.

The funds target investments will include, infrastructure (probably to help the Chinese get commodities out), agriculture, mining and energy.

Read more in Spanish from Argentinean DERF Agencia de Noticias.

The growth of stock markets in Latin America

The Latin Business Chronicle published a story today which technically, was supposed to focus on the growth of Colombia’s stock exchange and explain why it was the regions best performer last year.

In addition to Colombia, the article also shares data complied by Economatica on the growth of the other major stock exchanges in the region, which is what CSA will be sharing with you today.  To read the full article from the Latin Business Chronicle click here.

Colombia – Best performer in Latam last year, IGBC (Colombia’s benchmark) stock index has grown in value by 927.9% during the past 10 years, and average decline in value of transactions in 2008 was 2.3%—lower than all other countries in the region

Brazil – Latin America’s largest stock market, Ibovespa (Brazil’s benchmark) stock index has grown 301.3% during the past 10 years, and the average decline of transitions in 2008 compared with 2009 was 13.6%.

Mexico – IPC (major benchmark index in Mexico) has grown 250.5% during the past 10 years, and the average decline in transactions last year was 13.9%

Venezuela – The Caracas stock index has grown by 916.5% during the past 10 years, and the average decline in transactions was 29.5% last year—the second worst in Latin America.

Argentina – The Merval inces has grown by 321.3% during the past ten years, and had the worst average decline in transactions last year, suffering a decline of 54.4%.

Peru – The Lima stock index (IGBVL) has been one of the regions best performing in the past few years.  Seeing growth of 671.1% during the past 10 years, and a decline in average transactions last year of 21%.

Chile – Last but not least, Chile’s IPSA index has grown by 218.8% over the past 10 years, and the average decline in transactions last year was a mere 3.6%-second best next to Colombia.

Sino-Venezuelan Cooperation; mining and energy in focus

CSA a bit late on bringing this news to you, but it’s no less the exact kind of newsbites this website scavenges the news world for.

Mining Deal

China Development Bank Corp has agreed to provide a $1 billion usd credit line to Corp Venezolana de Guayana, a.k.a, Venezuela’s state owned mining giant and aluminium producer, in exchange for a guarantee of access to any newly discovered mining resources in the future.

China’s rolling the dice on this one.  Most of the mining world knows Venezuela is sitting atop abundant mineral wealth, nonetheless, the country has always lagged its South American neighbors like Chile, Peru and Argentina when it comes to exploiting its mineral wealth.

Dishing out $1 billion usd, in a moment when China is searching for world to secure new sources of commodities and Venezuela is desperate for dollars/ cash this is a logical investment which could pay dividends if Venezuela can provide the institutional framework to develop a robust mining industry using Chinese capital.

Energy Deals

Dec 22 (Tuesday) – Caracas and Beijing sign a framework agreement to set up and manage a new JV (joing venture) to develop the Junin 8 Block in the Orinoco Belt.  The set goal is to produce 200,000 barrels per day of extra-heavy crude, according to an official report.

Dec 23 (Wednesday) – China National Offshore Oil Corp signed agreements with PDVSA to assist with deep water and ultra-deep water drilling and to evaluate reserves in the Orinoco Belt block known as Boyaca 3.

What is China getting in exchange for this “olive branch,” it is offering Venezuela?

According to this Chinamining article,

The agreements included a one-year contract – signed by Venezuela’s PDVSA and Petro China – that calls for Venezuela to ship 500,000 barrels per day of crude and related products to China.  As for the mining agreement, China will receive supplies of iron ore for their generosity.